The VoIP Singularity Is Near

The battles are raging everywhere.

 

The FCC is asking for comments on a National Broadband strategy – AT&T asks for relief on supporting the PSTN. Verizon (News - Alert) is declaring itself a non-dominant carrier in New Jersey. One Voice and VoLGA are sending press releases to fight over 3GGP’s UTRAN vs. over the top. Cities are taxing VoIP services. States are looking to apply “telegraphic/telephonic” rules to the Internet age.

 

And I should mention the wireless carriers are all about the data side now, treating voice investments as part of that long evolution tail?

 

The future of packetized voice is the reality in every form of communication we have and yet, it’s like Mercury’s race with the tortoise. The tortoise is benefitting from Xenon math and seems to be winning. This is the reality of the regulatory framework as legislatures and regulators look to keep the tortoise in the race.

 

Some observations:

 

 

(We have lots of studies wanting to show the benefits, but its hard to argue that penetration by the PSTN usurped by the Internet has direct and immediate local impact).

 

In the proceedings at the FCC, the VON Coalition members which include Cisco, Covad, Google, iBasis, Intel, Microsoft, New Global Telecom (News - Alert), Skype, T-Mobile and Yahoo pointed out that “the past three years have seen an explosion in the investment and the adoption of IP services and IP networks. The convergence of voice, video and data challenge traditional notions of how consumers use their telephones and television sets. This evolution now means that all devices, phones, televisions, and computers, are each performing more and more functions and leveraging off the other.”

 

IP Multimedia is how we refer to this change from the technology, but terms like UC, Rich Media and triple play all indicate the same converged experience of commuications, entertainment, etc. The issue then becomes the fact that the Internet has become the Public network with more services that go beyond what we had with POTS. So the technology is going to change and the medium is going to be a preference. You like voice thats fine, but I have yet to see my kids talk on a phone without a warm up text. (SMS takes over for SS7?)

 

Like the rail vs. the Interstate the issues are one of jurisdiction and reform. The commission has to maintain some concept of universal service by the alchemy of changing the lead into gold (Internet). When the Universal Service Fund [USF] was created the goal was to maintain the connectivity independent of geography and economics. We now also have demographics that are on the opposite side of the digital divide. I have stayed an advocate for the e-rate portion of this fund since I believe it to be best place to impact these underserved groups.

 

It also has an equivalent part of the BTOP stimulus. However, the fundamental issue of how taxes are assessed and applied is the sticky point here. One place that is seriously broken is the minutes based rules which has left anomalies and the “VON Coalition continues to support a numbers- or connections-based contribution methodology that will remove the guesswork from the payment process.”

 

In Europe right now the strategy is about density and economics. Urban competitive markets that can flourish with competitive economics, suburban markets where a common shared infrastructure can be used to keep costs down and regulated to markets open, and finally the rural and “underserved” markets where subsidies are necessary. All of these elements exist in the BTOP criteria and some of the strategies that have been applied here in the United States. The problem is the legacy is looking to maintain itself.

 

As the highlander says: “In the end there can be only one.”

                       

The commission knows where we want to go, we don’t know how to stop going where we had been.

 

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