Communications and Technology Industry Research

In a sign that consumers and businesses are willing to invest in faster communications despite a slower economy, a Bethesda, Maryland-based market research firm is reporting this week that shipments of optical fiber-based network architecture systems increased 71 percent in 2008.

 

Officials at Dittberner Associates Inc. say that fourth-quarter fiber-to-the-home, or “FTTH” shipments didn’t rise as much as first projected, but still topped 3 million for the first time.

 

“Slower growth than projected for Europe and Korea is the main reason, offset by a higher than expected growth in China,” company officials say.

 

Broadband services are spreading rapidly throughout much of Asia – evidenced in part, as TMCnet reported, that China last year overtook the United States as the largest fixed subscriber market.

 

Yet, according to Dittberner (News - Alert), the new technology to watch is not FTTH – the fiber optic cable connection that runs directly from a telephone switch to a subscriber’s home – but rather DOCSIS 3.0-based subscribers.

 

The technology – short for “Data over Cable Service Interface Specification” – defines interface standards for cable modems and supporting equipment. The technology lets manufacturers produce cable modems for retail, so consumers no longer have to depend on leased cable modems from their cable providers. Devices that recognize and support the DOCSIS standard include HDTVs and Web enabled set-top boxes for regular televisions.

 

Even so, Dittberner reports this week that the Japanese market remains the main driver for FTTH, adding a little over 700,000 subscribers in the fourth quarter to close in on 14.5 Million FTTH and FTTB (fiber-to-the-business) subscribers. The North American, Korean and China markets showed steady growth.

 

Here’s how Dittberner breaks down global FTTH port shipments by vendor:

 

 

“The market share by vendor fractured more this year, as the Japanese market became less dominant. European, American, Chinese and Korean vendors claimed a significant market share,” the firm says. “Mitsubishi (News - Alert) remains the market leader in ports shipped, while Sumitomo remained in second place for the year. Chinese vendors appeared for the first time in 2008 and their market share is expected to grow, but will not necessarily become dominant, as China is deploying more FTTB than FTTH.”

 

Here’s how the firm breaks down global FTTH port shipment market share by technology:

 

 

According to the firm, the mix of technologies continues to shift, with GPON overtaking BPON and P2P Ethernet moving into second place behind GePON. GePON share should increase again now that China has chosen it for FTTH/FTTB deployments.

 

“Dittberner expects that the FTTH shipment jump in 2008 will be followed by 5 percent growth in 2009 and then growth will be flat for 2010 and 2011,” the firm says, “FTTH shipments will climb slowly after that. FTTB shipments are expected to grow much more quickly over the next decade because it is a much more cost-effective means of providing broadband services. By 2018, Dittberner expects that FTTB shipments will be the leading fixed broadband technology.”