December 19, 2006
In-Stat Speculates About 2007: HDTV Delivered Online, and Other Predictions
By Mae Kowalke, TMCnet Contributor
Ah, the elusive future—always tantalizingly just beyond our fingertips.But we venture to make predictions anyway. That’s exactly the topic, as it were, of a new whitepaper out this month from high-tech industry research firm In-Stat (News - Alert).
“In-Stat Predictions—2007” provides one perspective on how the next twelve months will play out for technology vendors, service providers, technology professionals, market specialists, and of course end-users. The report is based more than 50 primary research projects the firm conducted this year, plus what In-Stat describes as “our subject matter expertise and our instincts, born of our combined experience.”
So, looking ahead, what does In-Stat see? A lot of things… but the firm’s featured prediction, set forth by analyst Gerry Kaufhold, has to do with video—or more specifically, high-definition television programming.
In the whitepaper, In-Stat boldly stated that, by the end of 2007, more than 60 million households will contain at least one wide-screen, high-definition TV. Many of those households, In-Stat wagered, will have spent roughly $2,000 a pop on those TVs, and therefore will be willing to pay a few hundred more for a high-end entertainment PC designed to connect directly to the TV screen using HDMI.
2007 then, In-Stat said, is poised to become the year when high-def programming becomes widely available via broadband Internet.
Kaufhold backed up this assertion with a variety of industry developments, including:
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Introduction of Apple’s Intel-based machines
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Likely launch of iTunes-based “download-to-own” movie services
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Connection between Intel’s Viiv architecture and content owners/ISPs
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Ability of Asian countries (e.g. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan) to provide high-speed broadband services capable of delivering 10GB HDTV files quickly
“During 2007, it’s likely that only the higher end of the market will be interested in HDTV via broadband, but the ability of the high speed connections and quad-core PCs to deliver great looking video and surround sound audio will send a shiver through the Pay-TV industry and the Hollywood studios,” In-Stat’s report predicted.
The report added that, until now, pay TV services and Hollywood studios assumed that the size of HDTV files make it impossible to deliver those files over the Internet. But the capabilities of data pipes, as it were, are changing.
“By the end of 2007, we’ll see some people asking their ISP to give them a 30Mbps connection, and then canceling their Pay-TV service because they can download their favorite shows and movies and not pay for the extraneous networks that come “bundled” by the Pay-TV service,” In-Stat predicted.
The Internet-based high-def TV market will be given a further boost late in the year by the introduction of wireless HDMI solutions, In-Stat also predicted.
Other Predictions
Of course, in its look into the crystal ball, In-Stat did not focus solely on high-def TV. Some of the firm’s other predictions for 2007 include:
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Intel will stop losing market share to AMD and will regain some lost ground
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Nvidia will either be acquired by a larger company, or will diversify away from GPUs
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Annoying digital rights management (DRM) features in Windows Vista will cause older versions of the operating system to make a comeback
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Wireless USB will become a reality on PCs
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Apple’s move to Intel-based Macs will pay of as consumers realize the company make better Windows machines than many PCs
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There will be a backlash against “network neutrality” when rich media content on the Internet slows down other traffic
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Service providers will change their focus to IMS
service bundles for enterprises and small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) -
Asian markets will see the introduction of many more dual-mode handsets
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Handheld GPS devices will take off in a big way in China
Judging Past Predictions
All of this speculation is well and good, but how accurate will it turn out to be? In-Stat took a look at its predictions for 2006, and concluded that for the most part it was right on the money. The table below summarizes some of the company’s previous speculations and how things actually turned out.
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Prediction
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Actual
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Introduction of a GSM phone sold to carriers for $25, and a CDMA
phone for $45 |
GSM phone introduced for $25, CDMA for $35
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A U.S. carrier will intro WiFi/cellular handsets to business customers
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T-Mobile trialing dual-mode service and handsets in Seattle
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|
Introduction of 7 megapixel camera phones to U.S. market
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Highest resolution camera phone is Samsung’s B600, at 5 megapixels
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Prices wars for Flash will continue to intensify
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Market is highly competitive and price sensitive
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Worldwide home networks will top 60 million
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It appears this number will be reached and exceeded by year’s end
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As of Oct. 31, Comcast’s residential cable telephony subscriber base was 2.09 million.
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|
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International semiconductor manufacturers will make major investments in India
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Only time will tell which of In-Stat’s 2007 predictions will pan out. Watch this space a year from now for another dose of 20/20 hindsight.
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Mae Kowalke previously wrote for Cleveland Magazine in Ohio and The Burlington Free Press in Vermont. To see more of her articles, please visit Mae Kowalke’s columnist page. Also check out her Wireless Mobility blog.
