The Evolution of the Phone Call

It is a universally acknowledged truth that adding a node to a network increases the value of previously existing nodes. This is often called Metcalfe’s Law.

There are about six billion people in the world, with four billion cell phone accounts and two billion wireline phone accounts. By this measure, the PSTN is already about as valuable as it can get. But, as the Internet rolls towards its own ubiquity, it is making inroads into real-time voice communication. The Internet is an ecosystem where evolution happens fast: species branch frequently and diverge rapidly. The current profusion of voice communication mechanisms is a symptom of that divergence. All the major PC chat programs (Skype, Google (News - Alert) Talk, Yahoo Messenger, MSN Messenger, AIM, ICQ) have real-time voice features, based on a variety of technologies. All the major game consoles (PSP, Xbox, Wii) have real-time voice features. Adobe has built real-time communications into the latest versions of Flash and Air, based on proprietary protocols.

These networks are not interoperable, so each is dwarfed by the size of the PSTN. On the other hand, all these telephone alternatives are free, and many of them have both video and superior audio quality to the PSTN. So, in these times of niche marketing and the long tail, it is tempting to wonder if Metcalfe’s Law may run into some exceptions.

I don’t think it will be repealed, though. There will be value to being able to call my eight-year-old on his Nintendo DSi from my iPhone (News - Alert), and to being able to make a virtual call from a Second Life avatar to a real-world person. An interesting program, called Nimbuzz, approaches the issue of interoperability by aggregating all the PC chat clients behind a single user interface, even allowing group calls to be bridged between different services.

This is an example of a force that balances the divergent pressure of Internet innovation: the convergent force of the computer, which continues to digest entire categories of electronic device, including, ultimately, the telephone. IT

Michael Stanford (News - Alert) has been an entrepreneur and strategist in Voice-over-IP for over a decade. Visit his blog at www.wirevolution.com.

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