Look Before You Launch: How IMS Planners Are Watching Consumer Trends to Create Their Killer Apps

By David Hayward          

So when will we see these types of IMS applications deployed? If the number of operatorsThe dimensions of IMS
networks, their concurrent users, user devices, registrations/ deregistrations, active sessions and multimedia services, will dwarf current fixed-line VoIP and data network dimensions. With new technologies — such as WiFi (News - Alert) - and WiMAX-enabled mobile phones; presence services ringing multiple always-on devices per user; and applications that combine VoIP with real-time video conferencing, video-on-demand and videosharing – telecom operators will be challenged more than ever before to secure their infrastructure, protect revenue, ensure QoS and enforce business policies.  who presented their IMS vision at 2006 versus 2005 conferences, such as TMC’s (News - Alert) IMS Expo last year, is any indication, then IMS applications will begin to appear this year and mushroom in the next.

To understand IMS network dimensions, their applications’ challenges and how to overcome them, we first need to look at what’s driving operators toward IMS and IMS-over- FMC and how they are shaping their vision of IMS services. As one major operator proclaimed, “We need IMS to survive, and it will be cheaper in the long run to deploy services.”

In 2006, various independent polls, analyst surveys and press articles confirmed industry-wide views about why operators will implement IMS:

• It provides a faster environment for launching new services
                    - The IMS architecture is fully IP-based and easily accommodates                        third-party servers
• It enables converged voice, video and data services
                    - Being all-IP, it supports all media
• It can deliver the same service over fixed and mobile networks
                    - Its layered architecture is agnostic to the access network
• It provides more control over an increasingly “democratic” service environment
                    - It can provide a walled garden

Or, as an operator might say:

• My voice services are a commodity.
• I can charge more for “added value” (i.e., high-bandwidth IP multimedia) services.
• I better offer cool — and personalized — services to be competitive.
• The world is going mobile, so should my new high-bandwidth mobile services.
• Customers expect “services” everywhere, so my services need to be wired and wireless.
• If consumers are using my network, I want to charge for it.

Now in 2007, many mobile operators are bent on an evolutionary path toward IMS – with several flavors of FMC that will either immediately or evolve to feed the IMS core—and they are looking at the Internet to shape their plans for new services. Multivendor proofs-of-concept, such as the IMS Forum’s (News - Alert) PlugFest, demonstrate 3GPP/TISPAN IMS compliance, further accelerating operators’ IMS testing and deployment.

Ahead of the Hockey Puck: Internet and Mobile Trends
At nearly every IMS conference last year, moderators couldn’t help but put a new twist on the age-old question: “What will be the killer app…for IMS?” It’s an age-old question, and one that often spurs useless prognostication. But at more than one industry panel, operators gave a sound answer: “voice is the killer app now, and rich voice (i.e., VoIP combined with multimedia) will be the killer app tomorrow.” So perhaps it’s not just one service, but combined services that will comprise the killer (i.e., revenue-generating) app.

For the past few years we’ve heard the promise of IMS apps such as push-to-talk for mobile devices, prepaid card apps that
apply to wireless laptops and mobile phones alike and lifestyle services, like presence. While these are relevant examples
(and easier to deploy with IMS versus legacy softswitching), operators settling on IMS are taking their queue from the
Internet’s hottest trends: rich-media, personalized and community-based, and mobile. Or as hockey great Wayne Gretsky
quipped: to win, you have to anticipate where the puck will be, not where it is.

The smart (IMS R&D) money is following the population segment that’s driving the Internet and mobile communication
trends, that has buying power today, that will have more buying power tomorrow and that has a group of younger siblings ready to follow in their footsteps (see Figure 1). For example, 18 to 24 year olds, show the greater interest in Mobile IM that any other peer group, according to a Yankee Group (News - Alert) survey. They’re closely followed by the 25 to 34 year olds. And there’s huge interest in IM all around (29 percent of American’s born in 1935 or earlier are IMing, as surveyed by the Pew Internet & American Life Project.) Call this the “always-in-touch-with-my-friends” trend.

Mobile phones, which several years ago surpassed new fixed-line phone subscriptions, are another trend to follow. IDC (News - Alert) recently reported that the top 5 phone manufacturers are dramatically increasing converged phone shipments: anywhere from 29 percent to a whopping 200-plus percent 2006 over 2005. And it’s not only consumers who will buy the nearly 100 million converged mobile devices this year: it will be businesses, too. Call this the “I-want-multimedia-service-on-my-mobile-phone” trend.

Mash-ups are a concept the Microsoft (News - Alert) speakers at IMS conference apparently love to talk about — in part because they see that many new applications can be deployed on Microsoft technology without the aid of IMS. (There’s some truth to that.) For example, mash-up services that combine Google (News - Alert) maps with just about any special interest topic are popping up all over the Web. Operators are looking for service-delivery platforms to deploy at the top of the IMS architecture that can easily combine web- and app-server functions. Call this the “click-me-a-cool-service” trend.

Shrewd IMS planners are also closely watching the Internet social networking trend setters, whose fast-growing subscriber bases thrive on self-publishing, self-promoting, self-policing, group consensus and dialogue:

• ebay.com, where more than 25 million people transact business.
• myspace.com, where more than 120 million users post their personality.
• linkedin.com, where more than 7 million professionals meet.
• youtube.com, where more than 100 million videos are viewed per day and 65,000 new videos are posted per day.
• wikipedia.com, where visitors “crowdsource,” or build encyclopedia entries “by committee.”
• iStockphoto, where hoards of amateur photographers can post their photos and sell them at cut-rate prices. The list goes on. Call this the “have-it-your-way” trend.

A concept called 100 percent bandwidth is being passed around. It means that technology continuously evolves to deliver a virtual experience that more and more approximate reality. Taking photos and filming video on mobile devices, and sending them to your buddy list, is one example. At year-end 2006, iTunes was the leader (67 percent market share) among paid video downloads. And you can bet a lot of those are going onto iPods for portability. Call this the “being-there” trend. With the spread of WiFi hot spots beyond the airport and the business hotel to coffee houses, bars and restaurants, consumers, not just business travelers, have proven that they want high bandwidth services on a mobile device. Mobile phone and other handheld web-browsing is already a good revenue source for providers. IMS planners are taking note and looking at a broad range of fixed-mobile convergence options to reach consumers wherever they are. Call this the “I-want-itnow” trend.

The openness and flexibility of the IMS architecture allows quick application prototyping, market testing and broadscale market roll-outs. This translates to the following (also see Figure 2, which illustrates ideas in the remainder of this article):

• With third party apps or home-grown apps, deployed at the top layer of the IMS, I can lower my cost of service deployment
• With faster, lower-cost market test deployments, I can lower my risk if the service “bombs”
• I can get faster time to market and ride the wave of consumer trends quickly deploy
• And with IMS over FMC, I can deliver more services to more consumers in more places.

Operator Confidence: Delivering the Killer App
We began this discussion with a view of the IMS network and its immense dimensions compared to today’s VoIP and data networks. Just the sheer number of active sessions will be immense: a single user may have 3, 4 or 5 concurrent active sessions to handle always-on presence and location-based services. Moving between WiFi and CDMA/GSM will cause continuous on-off-on-again registrations.

Operators will be challenged to ensure security of the IMS services:

Is the user who he says he is?

Is he authorized for the services he’s asking for?

Am I ensuring him the privacy he wants?

I am protecting my network assets from unauthorized intrusion or attacks carried in the user’s SIP or media flow?

Operators will also be challenged to deliver QoS:

How can I implement full security and not bog down the network?

Am I sure that the network is using the right CODECs for each user?

How do deliver the right bandwidth for each user’s device or particular access network?

Operators will be challenged to enforce policy:

How can I ensure that a user’s personal preference, such as time-ofday and location, are met?

Can I set up and enforce different billing rules depending on dynamics such as time-of-day or access network?

To understand how these problems can be solved within the IMS and IMS-over-FMC environment, we need to further explore the nature of IMS services, and how the daily rise and fall network dimensions (i.e., concurrent activity) will stress the network and make it more vulnerable to Internet security risks and service management. We’ll explore these issues in future columns.

David Hayward is the Director of Marketing for Reef Point Systems. For more information, visiting the company online at www.reefpoint.com.