Last year, holiday shoppers looking for an MP3 player to fulfill the wishes of a friend of family member likely would simply have headed for the nearest Apple store to grab an iPod. This year, with Microsoft’s (News - Alert) launch of its Zune media player, things may not be so simple.

 

The question on most saavy shoppers’ minds is whether the features Microsoft packed into Zune—most notably, an FM tuner and the ability to wirelessly share songs with friends, albeit in a limited fashion—are compelling enough to necessitate defecting from the iPod camp.

 

If a Reuters report Wednesday is to be believed, more than a third (35 percent) of customers interested in buying a Zune are looking to replace an existing music player.

 

That number is significant because, although technically Apple’s player has many competitors, some analysts say Microsoft’s launch of Zune represents a new seriousness in the effort to dethrone iPod—which commands 70 percent of the U.S. market for MP3 players.

 

“Microsoft has itself acknowledged that it may take years for its Zune effort to take effect,” Reuters reports.

 

Zune was launched last month, and Reuters reports that the new player quickly grabbed nine percent of the market, knocking SanDisk’s Sansa from its second place spot behind iPod.

 

Analysts cited in an InfoWorld Daily report Tuesday say that, at least for now (read: the 2006 holiday season), Zune is not capable of seriously competing with iPod.

 

“Since its retail debut on Nov. 15, customer interest in Zune has been lackluster,” the InfoWorld report says. “Early reviews of the product have been less than stellar as well.”

 

The report quotes PiperJaffray analyst Gene Munster as saying that of 40 retailers surveyed, only eight recommended Zune to its customers; 75 percent remain loyal to iPod.

 

Just as significantly, Munster reported that Zune didn’t mount much of a fight against other MP3 players in the market. The analyst said that, during Zune’s launch week, it remained in seventh place on Amazon.com’s (News - Alert) list of ten best-selling players. Five days after launch, Zune fell to 13^th place.

 

“The buzz that Microsoft was able to generate for the Zune's launch clearly helped the player in its first week, but much of the publicity took the form of Zune/iPod comparisons,” Munster was quoted as saying in the InfoWorld report.

 

Deutsche Bank analyst Christ Whitemore echoed that sentiment in the InfoWorld report with his conclusion that the 30 Gigabit video iPods “appear to be immune to the Zune.”

 

iPod may be safe for now, but what about the longer term outlook? Eventually, Zune could make a dent.

 

An Economic Times report Monday out of India compared the iPod vs. Zune debate to some other, similar battles in the past—in which one device or technology eventually won out over the other.

 

The list includes Nintendo Mario vs. Sega Sonic (winner: Mario), cassette vs. 8-track (winner: cassette), CD vs. mini disc (winner: CD), PC vs. Mac (winner: PC), Blu-ray vs. HD DVD (winner: not yet decided), VHS vs. Betamax (winner: VHS), and ZX Spectrum vs. Commodore 64 (winner: Commodore).

 

If you think some of those battles didn’t conclude as they ought to, you’re not alone.

 

“The desire to reinvent the wheel, or at least improve on other brilliant technological developments, continues relentlessly,” the Economic Times report notes. “And, sometimes - as our guide to technological lemons shows – it’s not always the “rounder wheel” that wins...”

While iPods today seem ubiquitous to the point almost of absurdity, and so much sexier and easier to use than anything Microsoft could come up with (many consumers say Zune looks like a clumsy version if iPod), there’s no guarantee things will stay that way.

 

“The history of technology shows that when a new rival goes head-to-head with a well-known brand, it's rare for both the original and the newcomer to survive,” Economic Times warns.

 

If you’re a concerned iPod fan, consider the perspective of Chicago Tribune reporter Eric Benderoff, who Wednesday took a look at several tech choices shoppers are making this holiday season, including the decision between iPod and Zune.

 

“If there's a music player on your list, I still recommend Apple's line of iPods, barely,” Benderoff wrote in the Chicago Tribune report. “iPod, in all its flavors _ video iPod, Nano and the Shuffle _ remains the easiest to set up and use.”

 

Yet even Benderoff can’t help noting that, “if you're buying someone their first MP3 player, and they use Windows XP, Microsoft's Zune ($250, widely available) is worth a listen.”