We've all heard the buzz about the IP-PBX. But look at the statistics. IDC
estimates that in 2000, the worldwide PBX market will be $15 billion. Sales
of IP-capable PBXs will account for between $300 million and $400 million --
at most, a whopping 2.5 percent of the market. Giga Information Group
estimates are even smaller, with IP-PBXs making up less than one percent of
all PBX lines shipped in 1999.
So what's the big deal about the IP-PBX? Because of these figures, some
believe the only big deal is big hype. I disagree. I say the buzz is
justified, since the big deal is the potential that comes with being a
disruptive technology. Consider an example. A hundred years ago, some viewed
the car as a kind of toy. But visionaries knew it was disruptive technology.
The visionaries were right. Today, horse-drawn carriages are an oddity seen
only in Amish country or as a tourist ride in Central Park. The car, on the
other hand, realized its potential -- transforming the American landscape,
building an industry, and creating some of the largest companies in the
world.
To me, the IP-PBX press coverage seems second only to softswitch
coverage. Why so much coverage of something that makes up only a small part
of convergence and the entire telecom industry? In my view, it's because the
IP-PBX is a tangible result of the convergence of voice and data. A
tradeshow attendee or telecom user can call over an IP phone and see and
touch the IP-PBX. It's there now. In today's typical IP telephony phone
call, the last mile is still over standard infrastructure. The only thing
many people may remember about an IP telephony phone call is that it may not
have sounded like a "normal" phone call. Exactly how or why it
becomes an IP or Internet phone call -- even for a "Curious
George" -- is hard to understand unless you're a wonk who reads INTERNET
TELEPHONY� magazine or understand gateways and next-gen networks.
What's so disruptive about an IP-PBX? First, we have the promise of a
converged communications server and less expensive phones that connect to
it. A converged communications server -- handling PBX functions, remote
access, data routing, and unified messaging -- would truly revolutionize the
CPE environment. Today, a typical company's back office houses myriad
equipment performing these tasks, all cobbled together and mostly from
different vendors with different administration techniques.
IT staff loves the idea of a single network, less equipment, and
especially easier integration. On a converged network, IT technicians could
be trained to administer and debug both the voice and data network at the
same time, since it's one network using the same infrastructure, allowing
additional time to solve more problems. This could result in happier, more
flexible, more efficient, and possibly even a smaller IT staff -- though I
won't comment on whether "happier staff" and "smaller
staff" actually do belong in the same sentence.
Phones connected to a typical PBX are a great source of revenue for PBX
manufacturers -- and that means they are an expense to be reckoned with for
your budget. Closed systems mean you can only use one manufacturer's phone
set. And you pay more for a speakerphone, display phone, conferencing
ability, or other extras. That's just the way it is.
With an IP-PBX, the phones would use standards like H.323, SIP, or Megaco.
That makes it very likely that you would be able to use phones from sources
other than the PBX manufacturer. More choices mean more competition and
lower prices -- we all learned that in Economics 101. While a PBX
manufacturer could put proprietary protocols into the open standards to
create a closed system, the proliferation of truly open systems would let
competition dictate the winners and losers in the marketplace. There's ample
precedent. In the PC computer era, the open systems model has already spoken
loud and clear.
We're also seeing the promise of a single line carrying both phone calls
and computer data. Today this model is not a given, since IP-PBX
installations can still choose to install two separate lines -- either to
ensure quality of service or because, in some cases, installing two separate
100 Base-T Ethernet lines may be cheaper than installing a single
higher-bandwidth line. To me, using the single-line argument to support the
IP-PBX doesn't make much sense right now, since it's easy to refute.
But the single, converged communications server does make sense.
Combining an IP-PBX with routing and CTI application capability -- elements
of which you'll see on the demonstration floor at INTERNET
TELEPHONY CONFERENCE AND EXPO� -- both simplifies the back office
and reduces cost -- from both an equipment perspective and integration
perspective. This makes the disruption wave larger and louder.
By the way, those analyst reports at the very beginning of this article
-- the ones with the miniscule IP-PBX take rates -- were written by smart
people. And within a few years, they show the IP-PBX making much more than a
dent in the PBX market.
Jim Machi is director, product management, CT Server and IPT Products,
for Dialogic Corporation (an Intel
company). Dialogic is a leading manufacturer of high-performance,
standards-based computer telephony components. Dialogic products are used in
fax, data, voice recognition, speech synthesis, and call center management
CT applications.
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