Communications and Technology Industry Research

Nemertes Research recently predicted that the broadband infrastructure in the United States will reach maximum capacity by 2010. The study says that the system will collapse because of this overload, but, more importantly, says the situation is inevitable unless there is a 60 to 70 percent increase in investment in broadband infrastructure.

 

The report, titled, The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web, says that, although the dynamic nature of the Internet will prevent a total breakdown, users will experience “Internet brownouts,” which are defined as periods of low connectivity speeds. According to Nemertes Research, the situation will definitely hurt innovation on the Internet — a lack of reliability of connection speeds, will likely mean another Google or YouTube (News - Alert) will have difficulty making inroads.

 

The study points out that the lack of investment could be holding back the time at which the internet reaches a ‘singularity’ (a point at which accelerating change creates an unpredictable outcome, such as the Internet becoming independently sentient). Nemertes Research expects the corporate and personal demand for Internet connectivity to grow exponentially during the next two years.

 

Nemertes estimates that the financial investment required by access providers to bridge the gap between demand and capacity ranges from $42 billion to $55 billion, or roughly 60-70 percent more than service providers currently plan to invest.