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December 2008 | Volume 11/ Number 12
The Channel Perspective

A Bad Economy Drives a 2009 VoIP Surge

With the economy having the most serious problems that the world has seen, many in the VoIP communications market are wondering what’s next. Are we looking at a general slowdown or acceleration of VoIP acceptance and adaptation? I think the latter and here’s why: We know that from 4% to 12% of small to medium businesses have made the migration to digital. Whether it is cellular or VoIP, it leaves 87% or more of the SMB Market that needs to go through the migration. It has been estimated that 5% to 15% would convert every year for the next 5-7 years (See Figure 1). The growth curve above has given many entrepreneurs, resellers, and vendors enough incentive to start businesses, change positioning and develop VoIP-based products. The key to this telephony market is that there is installed equipment that must be replaced.

The stock market meltdown will increase VoIP Growth.

More and more executives will be under the gun to cut costs. There are a number of ways to cut costs but one way to cut costs tends to jump out at you — the PHONE BILL. This will force many companies to take the digital/VoIP plunge. As a result, VoIP sales will increase signifi-cantly over the next year or two (See Figure 2).

Stock Market Plunge Accelerates VoIP Growth

The stock market crash has effectively pulled in the VoIP growth curve by 6-12 months or more! As identified in the Post-Melt Down chart, VoIP sales may increase by 200-300% over previous forecasts. Thus, next year’s VoIP growth can be expected to jump from 4% to 8% or 12% or more next year.

While it is too early to have actual numbers to support this theory, the channel activity tends to indicate this trend as a reality. Reseller and carrier activity has increased significantly. The increase in VoIP sales will increase on a worldwide basis. We think that this will continue through 2009 making 2009 an incredible growth year for VoIP communications. IT


Don Witt is President of cyLogistics (News - Alert) (www.cylogistics.com).

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