Let’s face it, for those of us whose passion is following the industry, we all have deeply held opinions on what has happened and what will happen next.  With the end of 2011 fast approaching, it is thus that time of the year to pull out our crystal balls and let our voices be heard.

I will be contributing my own thoughts on various industries —technology innovations, restructurings, market and regulatory trends, etc. However, my inbox today contained the prognostications of Bill Dudley at Sybase 365 (News - Alert) regarding his top ten mobile industry predictions for 2012, and it seemed like a good place to start the ball rolling on two fronts:

• Great food for thought and discussion
• An invitation to send along your top 10 lists, regardless of industry sector

 I promise to publish the ones that can best stimulate debate.

Here’s Bill!

Dudley not only has an interesting list but a solid track record on things mobile. He was 73 percent accurate in 2008, 80 percent right in 2009 and continued his impressive showing (can you say “take me to Las Vegas!”) with a 77.5 accuracy in 2010. So this year his commentary included:

1.       After significant industry and political wrangling, AT&T’s bid for T-Mobile will not go forward. At the end of November, the FCC all but denied the acquisition and AT&T has withdrawn their application. I don’t expect any last minute negotiations, as I’m reading now that AT&T has started making set-aside provisions for the substantial charges payable to Deutsche Telekom since the deal will not go through.

2.       The new Apple (News - Alert) iPhone (iPhone 5) will support mobile purchases and NFC technology, creating a catalyst for jump-starting NFC-triggered point of sale (POS) purchases in developed markets. Apple will provide POS capabilities for merchants wishing to support this capability.

3.       Google/Android (News - Alert) will accelerate their mobile payment/purchase/mCRM capabilities to more devices, operators and partner payment networks (e.g. Visa, American Express and others). However, overall, new mobile payment services will mainly be focused on emerging markets utilizing SMS and USSD.

4.       OTT/NUVO service providers will make significant inroads in non-North American markets, which will begin to stabilize operator SMS traffic in markets where pure-OTT (non-SMS interoperable) players have hurt overall SMS traffic and revenues. Global SMS traffic will grow slightly, overall, but remain stable in developed markets, with emerging markets showing the greatest growth.

5.       The top U.S. presidential election candidates will all use mobile engagement to their base and the general electorate as a major means of trying to win votes. Additionally, given the proliferation of smartphones and devices, there will be a wide variety of apps that will be able to track the campaigns and elections.

6.        Don’t count out Research in Motion (RIM) yet. In 2012, they will launch several LTE-capable devices and continue to hold their own as they will still have significant markets and demographics where they will remain dominant.

7.        Windows Mobile 7 will begin to make a resurgence in the second part of 2012. It will partially be helped by Nokia devices as well as their Skype acquisition. By the end of the year, it will surpass Samsung’s Bada, moving into the top four smartphone platforms: Android, iOS, BlackBerry (News - Alert), Windows Mobile 7.

8.       Major, global brands will expand their mobile engagement of consumers via multiple mobile channels (e.g. mobile CRM) such as SMS, Mobile Web, push notifications, location and dedicated applications. Some of this will expand to include integrated mobile payments.

9.       Amazon will not launch a mobile phone in 2012. Amazon looks to be quite savvy in their acceptance of mobile as a channel to reach their consumers and will continue to build on their amazing online library of multimedia content. Consequently, if they do launch a true mobile phone, it could cause issues with their large Android base of mobile users. Instead, look for them to support additional mobile platforms.

10.    The operators fight back. Rich Communications Environments around RCS/RCSe will become more prevalent as alternatives to the myriad of OTT communications that are becoming prevalent in the marketplace today, further leveraging new LTE networks. These will be interoperable with legacy technologies for messaging (SMS/MMS) and voice, but add integrated, rich communications options for users of advanced smartphones.

FYI, Dudley has 25 years building and managing telecommunications network infrastructures and leads Sybase 365’s Messaging Team. He is no stranger to the prediction business, providing industry commentary to internal and external publications, analyst and media interviews and is active in a number of industry groups. He can be followed on his blog.

Just to prime the commentary pump, I am predicting Bill will hit under 100 percent this year.

I was with him until point number six and, just for grins, would make the following observations:

• Reputations are hard to win, easy to lose and very difficult to regain. RIM probably has passed its tipping point for regaining street credibility.
• I don’t see Windows Mobile 7 upending the Android or Apple juggernauts. Easier use of Skype is not a game changer. The store is the thing that captures the imagination of the king makers, to paraphrase Shakespeare, and Android, Apple and Amazon are well entrenched at this point.
• The operators may fight back, but whether they capture the value-added is another question entirely.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but that is why these lists are interesting, fun and why “they play the games.” I look forward to your comments. Better yet, send me your top 10 lists. Thank you Bill Dudley!

Peter Bernstein is a technology industry veteran, having worked in multiple capacities with several of the industry's biggest brands, including Avaya, Alcatel-Lucent (News - Alert), Telcordia, HP, Siemens, Nortel, France Telecom, and others, and having served on the Advisory Boards of 15 technology startups. To read more of Peter's work, please visit his columnist page.