TMCnet Feature Free eNews Subscription
August 15, 2011

A Eulogy for Google+ is Premature

By Peter Bernstein, Senior Editor

The rush to be first with a prediction seems to be getting out of hand. Coming off of a month that saw Google+ achieve one of the fastest growth rates, if not the fastest, of any website in history, I happened upon a Tweet from Forbes, “A Eulogy for Google Plus,” by Paul Tassi.  On a day when Google announced it was purchasing Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion, and coming on the heels of an article by Forbes’ own Timothy Lee back on August 1, “Why Google is Winning the Smartphone Wars,” to say this seems a bit premature would be a gross understatement. Although I do give Tassi credit for capturing people’s attention.



As someone who has followed the history of technology adoption, I must say this has all the potential of some of my favorite wrong but wonderful predictions as:

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us."Western Union, 1878

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."Charles H. Duell, an official at the US patent office, 1899

"The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty - a fad."President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Horace Rackham (Henry Ford's lawyer) not to invest in the Ford Motor Company in 1903. Rackham bought $5,000 worth of stock that he later sold for $12.5 million.

"Gasoline engines will soon be rendered obsolete."Thomas A. Edison, 1910

"The radio isn't even worthy of discussion."Pittsburgh newspaper, 1920

"Television won't last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night."Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946

"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years."Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company, Lewyt Corp., 1955

"There is no reason for any individual to have a personal computer in their home."Ken Olsen, President, Digital Equipment Corp., 1980

"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."Paul Krugman, New York Times economist, 1998

The reality is that Google+ is part of Google’s rapid evolution of its ecosystem, which stands to overhaul the nature and use of the Internet for those who get ecosystem construction right. It is why, as I pointed out, Google’s purchase of Motorola Mobility can be seen as manifest destiny. This fact has only become clearer as reports start to simmer up that Microsoft (News - Alert) was also interested in purchasing Motorola.

Yes, Google+ looks and acts today like a Facebook clone. Yes, most people do not want to manage more than a few social networks and managing sites which serve seemingly identical functions, does seem to be loading up on one too many if you already have Facebook (News - Alert). However, this is incredibly short-sighted.

If the Google ecosystem — based on the power of search, and driven by frictionless interactions through the Chrome browser -- enables Google to create an online universe I do not feel compelled to leave, then notices of the death of Google+ will certainly be premature.

That is the long-term view. In that view, Google becomes the digital dashboard that can mediate all of my multiple virtual personae according to my policies and rules, and acts not just as my gateway to the world but as the world’s portal to multiple versions of ME based on my permissions. In the process, such an ecosystem, if properly executed, holds the potential to disintermediate entire classes of businesses and destroy the business models of even the largest existing players as well as those in adjacent markets. It also holds out the hope of creating new businesses and business models we cannot even imagine.

To paraphrase a bit of what I once heard Barry Diller, CEO of IAC/InterActive, say: to believe that those who will dominate the future of new media will be old media companies would be like predicting that railroads and barge companies would dominate the airline business because they were transportation companies.  

The reality is Google -- and with them Apple, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon to name a few others --is in a race to get the ecosystem correct because that is the holy grail for future success. Recently, no less than Mark Zuckerberg (News - Alert), at the announcement of new voice calling capabilities for Facebook, said we are at a pivot point in the history of the Internet. He indicated a thought believed by many, i.e., that we are literally on the on-ramp to an acceleration in creativity and Internet traffic with astounding hockey stick characteristics whose deliverables are almost impossible to imagine never mind predict.

Sorry, Tassi, but to predict the death of Google+ because it currently seems to be nothing more than a non-value added version of Facebook totally misses the point. That is a prediction I will stand by.

Paul Krugman may have a Nobel (News - Alert) Prize, but 1998 is not that long ago. Look at how far we have come, how fast, and how much faster we are going. Think about just how wrong he was. Thought you’d like to know.


Peter Bernstein is a technology industry veteran, having worked in multiple capacities with several of the industry's biggest brands, including Avaya, Alcatel-Lucent, Telcordia (News - Alert), HP, Siemens, Nortel, France Telecom, and others, and having served on the Advisory Boards of 15 technology startups. To read more of Peter's work, please visit his columnist page.

Edited by Rich Steeves
» More TMCnet Feature Articles
Get stories like this delivered straight to your inbox. [Free eNews Subscription]
SHARE THIS ARTICLE

LATEST TMCNET ARTICLES

» More TMCnet Feature Articles