Climate change is once again in the news this week, with continued M25 protests triggering multiple arrests, sustained tailbacks and even criticism from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
While many media commentators continue to focus on the economic and human impacts of these protests, some are looking to discuss the underlying issues and the problems caused by the continued use of fossil fuels.
For now, there’s no doubt that fossil fuels remain the dominant source of energy in the world, but just how sustainable is the continued use of oil and coal in the future? We’ve explored this in detail in the article below!
The Timeline (News - Alert) for Fossil Fuels - When Will Resources be Depleted?
Interestingly fossil fuels have formed over an extensive period of time, from the remains of plants and animals that lived hundreds of millions ago.
Despite the extensive time-frame in which fossil fuels have evolved, however, it takes a considerably shorter period of time to burn through them. As a result of this, there’s constant speculation about when the current supply of fossil fuels is likely to burn out, with one of the most likely estimates suggesting a date of 2060.
This is based on the deployment of existing fossil fuel resources, while it assumes that we continue to burn energy at the current rate.
This seems to correlate to historic estimates too, with a comprehensive report by the American Petroleum Institute in 1999 saying that the world’s oil supply would be depleted at some point between 2062 and 2094.
However, the great unknown here is the sheer volume of fossil fuels that have yet to be mined, as this could have a key bearing on when resources such as oil are likely to be depleted. In 2006, for example, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicted that 3.74 trillion barrels of oil remain in the earth, creating the potential for fossil fuels to be mined and used for a much longer period of time.
Oil Prices and the ‘Net Zero’ Objective
Regardless of these estimates, it’s predicted that fossil fuels will still comprise 59% of the total primary energy demand in 2040, suggesting that we’re some way away from a time where industries are no longer reliant on oil.
However, there’s an increasing drive to reverse this trend, particularly as there remains a continual imbalance between supply and demand and prices remain disproportionately low.
Oil prices recently retreated to continue an extended sell-off, slumping by a further 1.1% to 68.5 following Saudi Arabia’s sharp cut in crude prices and the disappointing US jobs report data.
Demand is undoubtedly in decline across the globe at present, even in market leading regions and importers such as Saudi Arabia. It’s arguable that this trend and declining oil prices are also being exacerbated by the climate crisis, which is why the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) has created a net zero roadmap to be achieved by 2050.
This will precipitate a shift away from oil over time, as demand falls from 90 million barrels per day to fewer than 25 million by 2050, potentially resulting in an 85% depreciation in oil revenues globally.
In turn, we’ll see firms and governments switch to cleaner and more renewable energy sources, with solar and wind two of the most prominent in the current marketplace.
