It sometimes is a sobering realization that communications revenues actually are shrinking, not growing, in some regions, and nations within regions, despite overall global growth.

Some analysts predict revenue will fall in Western Europe for the foreseeable future, for instance. But even within fast-growing regions, such as Asia-Pacific, even some nations within the region will see declining revenues.

Telecom retail revenue in developed Asia-Pacific markets, for example, is set to decline at a compound annual growth rate of -0.4 percent during the next five years, according to new research by Analysys (News - Alert) Mason.

Overall revenue is expected to fall from $217 billion in 2012 to $213 billion in 2017, even as gross domestic product grows 3 percent during this period.

As you might guess, the revenue decline will be driven by a fall in fixed revenue from US$86 billion in 2012 to US$74 billion in 2017.

The mobile sector will grow at around 1.5 per year from US$131 billion in 2012 to US$139 billion in 2017, says Analysys Mason.

Fixed voice connections will decline by five percent between 2012 and 2017, from 138 million at the end of 2012 to 132 million at the end of 2017.

Mobile network connections will increase by 21 percent, from 255 million to 267 million in the same period, but mobile retail revenue will decline because the average revenue per voice minute will decrease – drastically in some countries.

“It is becoming increasingly difficult to extract the value of a mobile minute in developed economies,” says Tom Mowat, Analysys Mason principal analyst. But mobile service providers will be able to rely on growing Internet access and data revenues to offset voice dips for some time.

Fixed network operators will have no such luxury.