Rural America is losing population for the first time ever, largely because of waning interest among baby boomers in moving to far-flung locations for retirement and recreation, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

Between 2010 and 2012, rural counties as a whole declined in population for the first time. John Cromartie, a geographer at the Agriculture Department, calls the rural population decline a potential turning point. "This period may simply be an interruption in suburbanization, or it could turn out to be the end of a major demographic regime that has transformed small towns and rural areas," Cromartie said.

That has implications for communications service providers in rural areas, especially since the declining population means even fewer customers than already live in rural areas. With declining federal support, the shrinking population and lower financial support will worsen the financial standing of many rural telephone companies and reduce the pool of customers for high-speed access, video entertainment, mobile and fixed phone service.

It does not take too much foresight to predict that a wave of consolidation among U.S. independent telcos will happen as a result.

Some, including CHR Solutions SVP Kent Larsen, think that consolidation process will begin by 2014 or 2015.

Here’s the argument, in a nutshell. For starters, “wireless now is the preferred consumer choice” for voice and messaging, and might begin to be a more-logical choice even for broadband access. If nothing else were happening, that would put fixed network service providers at a disadvantage.

Less demand for fixed network voice lines and usage obviously is an issue, because that leads to lower cash flow.

Under the best of circumstances, most rural or independent fixed network service providers would not be able to survive without government subsidies of one sort or another. But declining population means fewer future customers. Also, the customers that do remain are older than the U.S. average.

Mergers and consolidation are inevitable.