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May 03, 2013

Flat Tiles for iOS 7! How About the Integration of Mac OS and iOS?

By Tony Rizzo, TMCnet Senior Editor

Before we move on to the subject matter of our headline, we need to address another issue that sets the stage. That is, how Tim Cook is doing as Apple’s (News - Alert) leader.

It’s true that some pundits actually believe that Tim Cook should be fired. It’s also true – and unless you’ve been on vacation in Bora Bora or Tahiti or some other suitably far flung place and haven’t heard yet – that the rumors have begun, finally, on what we are likely to see out of Apple on iOS 7. A lot of the chatter to date can be infuriating to read – especially if you are Apple.

Let’s get the “Tim Cook should be fired” thing out of the way first. Anyone who says this is just plain stupid. There is no other way to put it. As Apple’s CEO, Cook has had to tread an enormously fine line between transitioning Apple to life after Jobs, transitioning Apple to a much more competitive world (spearheaded by Samsung (News - Alert) and its huge marketing dollars investment), ensuring that Apple’s revenue streams continue to move forward, and also transitioning Apple into his own company.

That last part is hugely important. All successful CEOs make the companies they run their own. Casting aside the sentimental remains of a previous CEO (even one of Jobs legendary stature) is necessary but has to be done delicately. We believe Cook has been outstanding in navigating Apple from a Jobs to post-Jobs reality – an enormously difficult task. Although, in fact, Cook hasn’t made it seem all that difficult.

Even if Jobs were still alive and at Apple’s helm, the market dynamics that Cook has faced would be the same ones Jobs would have faced, and there would not have been any different outcome. Apple’s overall share of both the smartphone and tablet market, while remaining huge, would nevertheless decline on an overall percent basis. For example, it sold 19.5 million iPads in its fiscal Q1 2013, an increase of almost 8 million from 11.8 million devices year over year, yet its market share for tablets dropped from 58.1 to 39.6 percent.

No company could possibly continue to own and sustain the kind of market share Apple rightfully enjoyed as the true pioneer and first mover in the space. Once a market begins to mature a bit and competitors show up in increasing numbers, astounding market share becomes a thing of the past. That is how markets work. Analysts who wring their hands over such things need therapists.

Before moving forward, Apple needed to find a means to a soft and safe landing for its existing platforms. Were Jobs still around, he would have relied entirely on Cook to ensure that exact same soft and safe landing – one that would do no harm to the company as it prepared to move forward with new innovation, new products, a new iOS, and new market segments (TV, wearable technology and so forth). Had Cook been unencumbered by not also being the CEO, he would have pulled it off.

But Cook has pulled off the soft landing while indeed also being encumbered by full CEO responsibilities. Anyone who doesn’t understand the magnitude of the effort is naïve to the extreme. Furthermore, he has had to deal with the reality of Jobs no longer being there. So Cook not only had to ensure the soft landing but he also had to go back to first principles for CEOs – that of making the company truly his own.

Our position is that both Cook and Apple have accomplished exactly what needed to be done. Jony Ive and the rest of the senior management team that Cook has re-jiggered and put in place is Cook’s team, and they are working together to take Apple to that next innovation plateau. We like the positioning as of now, but whatever Cook has managed to accomplish up through today will mean nothing if he and his team do not deliver truly new levels of innovation when Apple’s 2013 World Wide Developers’ Conference (WWDC) rolls around in June. We believe the team is set to deliver, and we’re more than happy to give Cook the time needed for him to both make Apple his own and to once again make Apple the most innovative mobile company on the planet.

Flat Tiles

There is no doubt a statement being made by Apple through its WWDC logo. Let’s take a look at it:

We’ll leave you to draw your own conclusions as to what that logo might suggest. And in truth it may very well suggest nothing.

The latest rumors have it that all the smooth, shiny, 3 dimensional “glitz” of the “old” Apple iOS is going to give way to Microsoft (News - Alert) Windows Phone 8-like flat tiles. There are rumors as well that Apple is trying to improve the levels of information a user can gain from the iOS home screen. One notion is that Apple is going to look to incorporate some sort of sliding panel mechanism (BlackBerry (News - Alert) 10 anyone?) that will also help to uncover information rapidly. We’re surprised no one has suggested a BB 10 “hub” yet.

Well, these are certainly design elements – but they are all derivative design elements that serve no real purpose toward reclaiming the title of “most innovative mobile company on the planet.” In truth, if this, a fingerprint scanner, possibly a new display technology and some additional iPhone (News - Alert) 5 case covers are what Apple brings to the game, then Apple is not going to find its way to $1,000 a share.

That’s not to say that Ive won’t deliver on a whole slew of innovative new interface features. But we can rest assured that they will look nothing like WP8 tiles (which in truth are flat and distinct but which are not particularly attractive – the tiles and the available colors remind us of old PC color monitors from the mid 1990s, more than anything else). Trust us – Jony Ive is not going to bore us and the rest of the world with any such thing.

Before we look ahead, there is one more thing to note. There is a rumor, or maybe it’s a reality (we certainly think it is), that Apple is shifting developers around from a variety of different projects to work on the Ive team to finish whatever it is Apple plans to deliver at WWDC. OK, what company doesn’t do this as it nears a promised or intended but unannounced ship date? Is this really news you can use?

A Prediction – Merging Mac OS and iOS

We noted this in other articles, but what we expect to see is the beginnings of Mac OS – iOS integration processes emerge at WWDC. The complete integration of the two is a multiyear effort, certainly not something we might see in its totality before 2015 rolls around, but we expect to see fairly detailed perspective on how this integration is likely to transpire over the next two years.

We expect to hear about how whatever design elements Ive has up his sleeve for iOS will begin to be realized on the next generation of Macs in all their various flavors. In fact, we may not only see some presentation slides and videos of where iOS is headed design-wise, we may also actually see some deliverables materialize on whatever Mac announcements are made at WWDC.

Will Apple announce the next generation iPhone products then? We have to take Cook’s hint at Apple’s recent earnings call that they won’t announce any new products until the fall 2013 – though that may be a red herring statement. But let’s take it at face value. We are all very certain that new Macs will be announced, and we will not be surprised if those new Macs suddenly begin to sport some new design elements or if Apple hints at what future Mac design elements may end up looking like.

In our earlier analysis of what iOS 7 might look like, we provided details for many of these things. No need to repeat them. But we can expect to see some early design changes, likely an iPhone 5S with new interface look, feel and functionality, and a hint of how the two operating systems will come together. It will all look – it will all be – revolutionary, not evolutionary. It will leave us hungering or the next “real” next iPhone – whatever they choose to call it. And we’ll likely see it just in time for the holiday buying season.

In truth, we don’t care about a large screen iPhone or a low cost iPhone. Apple will deliver those and they will yawn just as we will – OK, they will get those products out there to ensure they get their share of revenue from those markets. But Apple doesn’t really care about this. They care about what we care about – the future.

We want the future and we won’t settle for anything less than the future. Cook and his team know this, and we expect them to deliver.




Edited by Blaise McNamee
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