[May 21, 2018] |
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Market Growth Rate Peaks After a Strong 2017; IDC Forecasts Semiconductor Revenue Growth of 7.7%, Reaching $450 Billion in 2018
After strong year-over-year growth of 24% in 2017, worldwide
semiconductor revenue is forecast to grow for the third consecutive year
in 2018 to $450 billion, up 7.7% over 2017, according to a new Semiconductor
Applications Forecaster (SAF) from International Data Corporation (IDC).
The SAF also forecasts that semiconductor revenues will log a compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% from 2017-2022, reaching $482 billion
in 2022.
The overall memory market was the key story of last year, due to strong
demand, limited supply, and product mix constraints. The DRAM and NAND
memory markets grew to $73 billion and $49 billion respectively,
reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 77% and 52% for 2017.
Excluding DRAM and NAND, the overall semiconductor market grew by 12%
year over year. For 2018, non-memory semiconductors are forecast to grow
$11 billion to $302 billion. Both DRAM and NAND will continue to grow
this year, but are expected to decline from 2019-2021 before recovering
slightly in 2022.
The strong memory market resulted in Samsung (News - Alert) Electronics capturing the
top semiconductor manufacturer spot away from Intel and raised the
profile of all the memory manufacturers, which now represent three of
the top five semiconductor companies compared to only two the previous
year. Revenue concentration continued to increase for the overall market
with the top 10 companies making up 60% of the semiconductor market
compared to 56% in 2016 and 53% in 2015.
"Market consolidation in the semiconductor industry over the past five
years continues to shape the competitive landscape for semiconductor
suppliers as each company continues to refine its core markets and make
acquisitions to find new and emerging sectors for growth. The pace of
change and technology is expected to accelerate as machine learning and
autonomous systems enable a more diverse set of architectures to address
the opportunity. This will fuel the engine of growth for semiconductor
technology over the next decade," said Mario
Morales, program vice president, Semiconductors at IDC (News - Alert).
The automotive market and the industrial markets will continue to be the
leading areas of growth for the semiconductor market throughout the
forecast period, growing at a 9.6% and 6.8% CAGR from 2017-2022. "The
key drivers of electrification, connectivity and infotainment, advanced
driver assistance (ADAS), and autonomous driving features will continue
to drive the growth of semiconductor content on a per vehicle basis,"
said Nina
Turner, research manager for Semiconductors at IDC.
Other key findings from IDC's Semiconductor Application Forecaster
(excluding memory) include:
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Semiconductor revenue for the computing industry segment will decline
4.0% this year and will show a negative CAGR of -0.7% for the
2017-2022 forecast period. Two bright spots for the computing segment
are computing and enterprise SSDs, growing in high double digits and
9.8% CAGR respectively for 2017-2022.
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Semiconductor revenue for the mobile wireless communications segment
will grow 5.5% year over year this year with a CAGR of 5.8% for
2017-2022. Semiconductor revenue for 4G mobile phones will experience
an annual growth rate of 1.9% in 2018 and a CAGR of 3.1% for
2017-2022. 5G will also drive growth in the later part of the forecast
as the technology becomes mainstream by the middle of the next decade.
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Communications infrastructure semiconductors are forecast to grow at a
1.7% CAGR from 2017-2022 with the strongest growth coming from
consumer networks.
Additional semiconductor market research can be found at IDC.com:
The IDC report, Worldwide
Embedded and Intelligent Systems Forecast, 2018-2022: Data
Transformation and the Journey of Data Across the Internet Landscape
from the Physical to the Digital (IDC #US43690318), presents the
worldwide embedded and intelligent systems market by placement in the
IoT, industry segment, and two other views.
The IDC report, Worldwide
PC and Server Discrete Graphics Processing Unit Market Shares, 4Q17:
Gaming and Cryptocurrency Mining Drive Volume (IDC
#US43723018), provides the worldwide market and vendor share results for
desktop PC, mobile PC, and server discrete graphics processing unit
vendors for the fourth calendar quarter of 2017.
The IDC report, Worldwide
Server Microprocessor Market Shares, 4Q17: By Vendor, Architecture,
Channel, Socket, and System Category (IDC #US43723518),
examines the performance of the server microprocessor market by
shipments and revenue by vendors as well as unit shipments by processor
architecture, channel to customer, socket design capability, and system
category.
The IDC report, Worldwide
DRAM Demand and Supply 4Q17-4Q18 and 2018-2022 Update (IDC
#US43639218), provides the CY 4Q17 DRAM and CY 2017 vendor share results
and forecasts for both the short-term (4Q17-4Q18) and the long-term
(2018-2022) worldwide DRAM market.
The IDC report, Worldwide
NAND Flash Demand and Supply 4Q17-4Q18 and 2018-2022 Update (IDC
#US43639418), provides the CY 4Q17 and CY 2017 vendor share results and
the forecasts for both the short term (4Q17-4Q18) and the long term
(2018-2022) for the worldwide NAND flash memory market.
The IDC report, Worldwide
Cloud Infrastructure Semiconductor Market Shares, 4Q17: Growth Flattens
(IDC #US43679718), provides an update on select semiconductor companies
focused on delivering solutions for communications infrastructure in the
cloud and IDC's estimate of the companies' quarterly revenue in the
cloud and mobile communications infrastructure market.
The IDC presentation, Worldwide
Automotive Update: 4Q17 and Full-Year 2017 Summary (IDC
#US43227118), summarizes worldwide automobile sales forecast and
quarterly sales worldwide and for North America, Europe, Japan, and
China. An autonomous vehicle road map by OEM as announced is included.
IDC's Worldwide
Semiconductor Applications Forecaster database serves as the basis
for IDC semiconductor supply-side documents, including market forecasts
and consulting projects. This database contains revenue data collected
from over 140 of the top semiconductor companies for 2014-2017 and
market history and forecasts for 2014-2022. Revenue for over twelve
semiconductor device areas, four geographic regions, seven industries,
and more than 65 end-device applications are also included in the
database. For more information about the SAF, please contact Nina Turner
at [email protected].
About IDC International Data Corporation (IDC) is the
premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and
events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer
technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers
global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry
opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and
insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment
community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their
key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG),
the world's leading media, data and marketing services company that
activates and engages the most influential technology buyers. To learn
more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com.
Follow IDC on Twitter (News - Alert) at @IDC
and LinkedIn.
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