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Pakistan will have 134.8 million mobile subscribers in 2014 with market share of China Mobile Pakistan rising to 13.7%, according to new market research report by IEMR(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Vancouver, -- IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 1Q.2010 Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2014. "The wireless penetration rate is still low in Pakistan at approximately 60% in 2009, and we expect that the country's wireless market will continue to show strong growth. Our model forecasts that total mobile subscribers in Pakistan will increase from 96 million in 2009 to 134.8 million in 2014," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Mobilink will continue to be the largest player in Pakistan's mobile operator space over the next five years. We expect that Mobilink will have 36 million mobile subscribers in 2014. Also, given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Ufone will have 25.8 million, Telenor will have 29 million, and Warid will have 25.3 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014." "ARPU levels remain low in Pakistan's mobile operator space. We expect that the industry average ARPU will remain in the range of US$ 2 - US$ 3 over the next five years. Our model predicts that, in 2014, Mobilink's monthly ARPU will be at highest among operators at US$ 2.64. The operator with the lowest monthly ARPU will be Warid Telecom with US$ 1.67 in 2014," said Mr. Assanie. IEMR's Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Pakistan - Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited), Ufone GSM, China Mobile Ltd. (Zong, formerly Paktel), Instaphone, Telenor ASA, and Warid Telecom International. Notable highlights of the 1Q10 Pakistan Mobile Operator Forecast include: * In terms of shares of total subscribers, we expect that Mobilink's market share will decline over the next five years, from 30% in 2009 to 26.7% in 2014. On the other hand, we expect China Mobile Pakistan's market share to increase from 8% in 2009 to 13.7% in 2014. We also forecast that market shares at Ufone, Telenor, and Warid will be approximately 19.2%, 21.6% and 18.8% respectively in 2014. * Given the excellent performance by Norway's Telenor in Pakistan's wireless market in the recent past, our model forecasts that its EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will be increasing from about 23% in 2009 to 35% in 2014. On the other hand, we think that Mobilink will maintain its EBITDA margin of approximately 35% over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014. IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1395&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast Mobilink (Pakistan Mobile Communications Limited) Ufone GSM China Mobile Ltd. (Zong, formerly Paktel) Telenor ASA Warid Telecom International Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR ** POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR * MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR * DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) * MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *** VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *** MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *** MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *** SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *** CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) * SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *** EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR * CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR * (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR * EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *** REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) * VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *** SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *** CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) * * Not available for this country forecast ** Available only for Mobilink *** Available only for Mobilink and Telenor ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) (c) 2010 M2 COMMUNICATIONS |