Sg2 Impact of Change Forecast Predicts Enormous Disruption in Health Care Provider Landscape by 2029
Vizient, Inc. and its subsidiary company Sg2 today released its 2021 Impact of Change® Forecast that projects a rapid recovery of volumes for most services as COVID-19 abates, followed by a seismic shift in health care delivery as services move from hospitals to other care facilities. The report can be accessed here: https://newsroom.vizientinc.com/content/1221/files/Documents/2021_PR_ImpactOfChange.pdf
"We're going to see a strong recovery over the next six months in terms of health care utilization, with overall outpatient demand surpassing 2019 volumes. However, not everything will return to pre-pandemic levels. There will be some permanent changes post-pandemic, including sustained shift to virtual, and emergency department (ED) volumes remaining below 2019 levels. In addition, rising acuity and chronic disease burden, trends which were occurring prior to the pandemic, will place increasing demands on the health care workforce and across the system of care," said Madeleine McDowell, MD, FAAP, principal and medical director for Sg2.
The forecast projects that inpatient volumes will recover to their pre-COVID-19 levels by 2022 and then plateau. By 2029, hospital emergency departments (ED) will see 4.8 million fewer patient visits annually than in 2019 (roughly a 5% decline) as low acuity ED visits shift to urgent care clinics, physician offices and other locations. At the same time, Americans will spend 12.5 million more days in the hospital (9% increase) driven by a rise in chronic diseases, an older population that requires morecare and new innovations increasing the number of treatable conditions. Other insights from the forecast include:
Changing Venues for Care
Growth of Hospital-at-Home
"Policy changes, virtual and digital innovations and the shift to lower cost settings will all contribute to a re-structuring of the current system of care," said McDowell. "Understanding clinical demand, and where it is shifting, is essential for providers to properly plan for future resource, workforce, facility and program development demands. Health care providers will also need to evolve and pivot to compete with new market disruptors, such as telemedicine providers, Hospital at Home models, and AI-enabled services."
Click here to read the Sg2 expert insight "2021 Impact of Change Forecast: Post-Pandemic Recovery, Rising Acuity and Ambulatory Shifts."
About Vizient, Inc.
Vizient, Inc. provides solutions and services that improve the delivery of high-value care by aligning cost, quality and market performance for more than 50% of the nation's acute care providers, which includes 95% of the nation's academic medical centers, and more than 20% of ambulatory providers. Vizient provides expertise, analytics and advisory services, as well as a contract portfolio that represents more than $100 billion in annual purchasing volume, to improve patient outcomes and lower costs. Vizient has earned a World's Most Ethical Company designation from the Ethisphere Institute every year since its inception. Headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vizient has offices throughout the United States. Learn more at http://www.vizientinc.com/
Sg2, a Vizient company, is the health care industry's premier authority on health care trends, insights, and market analytics. Our analytics expertise help hospitals and health systems achieve sustainable growth and ensure ongoing market relevance through the development of an effective System of CARE.
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