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Manufacturing PMI® at 47.4%; December 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®New Orders and Backlogs Contracting; Production Expanding; Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Faster; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers' Inventories Too Low; Prices Decreasing; Exports and Imports Contracting TEMPE, Ariz., Jan. 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the 14th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent in December, up 0.7 percentage point from the 46.7 percent recorded in November. The overall economy continued in contraction for a third month after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and a 30-month period of expansion before that. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47.1 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the figure of 48.3 percent recorded in November. The Production Index reading of 50.3 percent is a 1.8-percentage point increase compared to November's figure of 48.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 45.2 percent, down 4.7 percentage points compared to the reading of 49.9 percent in November. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 45.3 percent, 6 percentage points higher than the November reading of 39.3 percent. The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 2.3 percentage points from the 45.8 percent reported in November. "The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 47 percent is 0.8 percentage point higher than the 46.2 percent recorded in November. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) "The Inventories Index decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 44.3 percent; the November reading was 44.8 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.9 percent is 3.9 percentage points higher than November's figure of 46 percent. The Imports Index remained in contraction territory, registering 46.4 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the 46.2 percent reported in November." Fiore continues, "The U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract, but at a slightly slower rate in December as compared to November. Companies are still managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues. Demand eased, with the (1) New Orders Index contracting at a faster rate, (2) New Export Orders Index essentially flat, and (3) Backlog of Orders Index climbing back above 40 percent but still in fairly strong contraction territory. The Customers' Inventories Index returned to contraction, becoming more accommodative for future production. Output/Consumption (measured by the Production and Employment indexes) contracted but improved, with a combined 4.1-percentage point upward impact on the Manufacturing PMI® calculation. Panelists' companies maintained production levels month over month and continued actions to reduce head counts in December, primarily through layoffs. Inputs — defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports — continued to accommodate future demand growth. The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster deliveries for the 15th straight month, and the Inventories Index moved downward while remaining in moderate contraction territory. The Prices Index dropped further into 'decreasing' territory, signifying soft energy markets, offset by increases in the steel and aluminum markets. Manufacturing supplier lead times continue to decrease (supported by panelists' comments), a positive for future economic activity. "None of the six biggest manufacturing industries registered growth in December. "Demand remains soft, and production execution is stable compared to November, as panelists' companies continue to manage outputs, material inputs and labor costs. Suppliers continue to have capacity. Eighty-four percent of manufacturing gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in December, up from 65 percent in November. More importantly, the share of sector GDP registering a composite PMI® calculation at or below 45 percent — a good barometer of overall manufacturing weakness — was 48 percent in December, compared to 54 percent in November and 35 percent in October. Among the top six industries by contribution to manufacturing GDP, three (Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) had a PMI® at or below 45 percent, the same number as the previous month," says Fiore. The only manufacturing industry to report growth in December is Primary Metals. The 16 industries reporting contraction in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Commodities Down in Price Commodities in Short Supply Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. DECEMBER 2023 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES Manufacturing PMI® A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the December Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy contracted for a third straight month after one month of growth preceded by nine consecutive months of contraction and 30 months of expansion from June 2020 to November 2022. "The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the December reading (47.4 percent) corresponds to a change of minus-0.5 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis," says Fiore. THE LAST 12 MONTHS
New Orders The four manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in December are: Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The 13 industries reporting a decline in new orders in December, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
Production The three industries reporting growth in production during the month of December are: Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The 13 industries reporting a decrease in production in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Furniture & Related Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Employment Of 18 manufacturing industries, three reported employment growth in December: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in December, in the following order, are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Machinery; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. Six industries reported no change in employment in December compared to November.
Supplier Deliveries† The three manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in December are: Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The seven industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in December — in the following order — are: Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Chemical Products. Eight industries reported no change in delivery performance in December compared to November.
Inventories Of 18 manufacturing industries, four reported higher inventories in December: Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Furniture & Related Products. The 13 industries reporting lower inventories in December — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Customers' Inventories† The six industries reporting customers' inventories as too high in December — in the following order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products. The six industries reporting customers' inventories as too low in December, in order, are: Primary Metals; Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Machinery.
Prices† In December, the four industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials are: Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The eight industries reporting paying decreased prices for raw materials in December — in the following order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. Six industries reported no change in input prices in December compared to November.
Backlog of Orders† Of 18 manufacturing industries, the five that are reporting growth in order backlogs in December are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products. The nine industries reporting lower backlogs in December — in the following order — are: Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
New Export Orders† The six industries reporting growth in new export orders in December — in the following order — are: Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; and Transportation Equipment. The five industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in December are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Imports† The two industries reporting an increase in import volumes in December are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Primary Metals. The 10 industries that reported lower volumes of imports in December — listed in the following order — are: Wood Products; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment. Six industries reported no change in imports in December.
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments. Buying Policy
About This Report The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making. Data and Method of Presentation Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted). Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.7 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.7 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted. ISM ROB Content Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM ROB Content. 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About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the second business day of the month. The next Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring January 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, February 1, 2024. *Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
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