[January 07, 2018] |
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2018 Tech Industry Revenue to Reach Record $351 Billion, Says CTA
Excitement about emerging technologies and the resilience of
historically leading categories will drive the U.S. consumer technology
industry to a record-breaking $351 billion in retail revenues ($266
billion wholesale) in 2018 - 3.9 percent higher than 2017, according to
new research from the Consumer Technology Association (CTA).
Unveiled today in advance of CES (News - Alert)® 2018, the latest edition of CTA's
semi-annual industry report, the U.S. Consumer Technology
Sales and Forecasts, includes for the first time a projection for
consumer spending on music and video streaming services - valued at
$19.5 billion in revenue, 35 percent higher than just last year. CTA
added streaming services sales - which include internet-enabled services
that deliver on-demand or linear video content (e.g., Netflix, Hulu (News - Alert) and
Sling TV) and on-demand audio content (e.g., Spotify, Pandora or Apple
Music) - to better capture the full expanse of the ever evolving and
expanding consumer technology market. Excluding the addition of
streaming services, total industry revenue would increase by 2.2 percent
in 2018.
"Technology is improving our lives in more ways than ever - and consumer
enthusiasm is growing just as quickly as companies can bring their
innovations to market," said Gary Shapiro (News - Alert), president and CEO, CTA. "Our
forecast incorporates several key economic factors including a strong
stock market, continued job growth and stable rules for international
trade to forecast these record-setting sales for breakthrough
technologies and longtime market leaders alike. And the driving themes
of 2018, including voice computing, artificial intelligence and
connectivity that make our lives better and more efficient, will be on
display across the show floor this week at CES 2018."
CTA is the nation's largest tech trade association - its semi-annual
report serves as a benchmark for the U.S. consumer technology industry,
charting the size and growth of underlying product categories. The CTA
consensus forecast reflects U.S. factory sales-to-dealers for more than
300 consumer tech products.
Emerging Technologies Expand
Overall, U.S. sales of connected devices are projected to reach 715
million units in 2018 - a 6.6 percent increase year-over-year. Specific
products projected to contribute significantly to this growth include:
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Smart Speakers: Coming off of a tremendous 2017 holiday season,
voice-controlled smart speakers, including Amazon Echo and Google (News - Alert)
Home, are going gangbusters. Unit sales increased 279 percent in 2017,
and CTA projects 2018 unit sales will reach 43.6 million units (60
percent increase) and earn $3.8 billion in revenue (93 percent
growth). As voice recognition technology is integrated into
more speakers at a variety of price points, smart seakers is a
category to watch in 2018.
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Smart Home: The popularity of smart speakers will have a
ripple effect on the smart home market, as consumers discover the
benefits of voice-activated home automation. CTA expects sales in the
category - including smart thermostats, smart smoke and carbon
monoxide detectors, IP/Wi-Fi cameras, smart locks and doorbells, smart
home systems, and smart switches, dimmers and outlets - to reach 40.8
million units in 2018 (41 percent increase over 2017), earning $4.5
billion (34 percent increase).
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Virtual Reality (VR): Popularity among gamers and an
increasingly competitive market continue to drive growth for VR/AR
headsets and eyewear, with unit shipments projected to grow to 4.9
million units this year (25 percent increase) tallying $1.2 billion in
revenues (18 percent increase).
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Drones: Total drone sales are expected to reach record highs of
3.7 million units in 2018 (20 percent increase) earning $1.2 billion
in revenue (17 percent increase). CTA's forecast also delineates U.S.
drone sales for units below and above 250 grams, the FAA's division
for mandatory drone registration. Drones below 250 grams are expected
to reach just over 2.2 million units this year, while drones above 250
grams will reach 1.5 million units shipped.
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Wearables: The total health, fitness and sports tech
market - including fitness activity trackers, other health and fitness
devices, hearables, over-the-counter hearing devices, smartwatches
and, for the first time, sports tech (such as a smart basketballs or
baseball bats) - is expected to reach sales of 49.3 million units in
2018 (four percent increase) and earn $6.4 billion (one percent
increase).
"Consumers are rapidly adopting new, emerging technology products - with
voice-activated smart speakers as the stand-out of 2017 and 2018 -
sparking growth in smart home devices, as voice interaction adds a new
level of convenience and excitement to our lives," said Brian
Markwalter, senior vice president of research and standards, CTA. "At
the same time, core categories - such as smartphones, laptops and TVs -
continue to surpass expectations. 2018 will prove to be a milestone year
for TVs, especially as LCD 4K UHD TVs make up half of all TVs sold in
2018."
Maturing Technologies Continuing
The top five revenue categories will contribute just over half of total
wholesale industry revenue (51 percent) in 2018.
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Smartphones: Following the introduction of new flagship models
from major manufacturers in 2017, smartphones will continue to anchor
the industry and see slight growth in 2018. Unit volume will reach 189
million smartphones (two percent increase) shipping in 2018, with
revenues expected to reach $62.9 billion (three percent increase).
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Laptops: In 2018, the commercial and consumer laptop market
will sell 50.1 million units, up three percent over last year, and
earn $28.4 billion in revenue. Convertible models remain a high-growth
area within computing.
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Televisions: Performing better than expected in 2017, unit
sales of total digital displays in 2018 are projected to reach 44.2
million units (two percent increase) and $22.1 billion in revenue (two
percent increase). Future category growth will be driven by next gen
features.
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4K Ultra High-Definition (4K UHD): For the first time, 4K
UHD TVs will make up half of all total digital displays sold in
2018, with unit sales forecast to hit 22 million units (27 percent
increase) generating $15.9 billion in revenue (14 percent
increase).
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Automotive Electronics: Factory-installed automotive
technology, from driver-assist features to entertainment systems, is
projected to contribute $15.9 billion in revenue (5.9 percent
increase) - the result of strong automotive sales, propelled by a
rising tide of tech, from sensors and artificial intelligence to
safety and infotainment systems.
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Tablets: After tremendous adoption in recent years, some tablet
sales have been cannibalized by convertible, 2-in-1 laptops as
standalone tablet adoption has leveled off and replacement cycles have
slowed. Tablet sales will decline in 2018. CTA expects sales of 45.6
million units (12 percent decrease) and revenues of $12.5 billion (13
percent decrease).
CTA publishes the U.S. Consumer Technology Sales and Forecasts
twice a year, in January and July, reporting U.S. factory
sales-to-dealers. It was designed and formulated by CTA, the most
comprehensive source of sales data, forecasts, consumer research and
historical trends for the consumer technology industry. Multi-year
projections cannot account for unpredictable factors such as changes in
trade laws, interest rates and federal policy. For more information,
visit CTA.tech/salesandforecasts.
View source version on businesswire.com: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180107005125/en/
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