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Trends at Work: An Overview of Tomorrow's Employment Ecosystem [Futurist, The](Futurist, The Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Where will work be in the future? And where will workers be? The economic, social, and technological landscape is shifting rapidly. Here are some of the major trends altering the future workplace. When we think about the future of work, the first thing we usually want to know is what kinds of jobs will be available, how many, how much they'll pay, and what we have to do to prepare for them. We then consult resources like the official reports regularly generated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) concerning job categories that are undergoing change, in terms of both the numbers of workers within each category and what they'll do. For example, the current BLS pro- jections for the years 2012 to 2022 show likely growth for the catego- ries of network systems and data communications analysts, personal and home-care aides (also health- care industry human resources, mar- keting, etc.), computer software en- gineers (high end), and veterinary technicians (assistants). More job openings are also ex- pected for nurses, health-care techni- cians and administrators, massage and yoga practitioners, car service and shoe repair personnel, as well as retail salespeople, administrative aides, customer relations, janitorial services, and teaching assistants. The BLS expects that the fastest- growing job categories of all will in- clude organizational psychologists, interpreters, occupational therapists, and genetic counselors. Finally, not surprisingly, the highest-paying jobs in the next dec ade incl u de very- high-skilled medical specialists: oral surgeons, obstetricians, orthodon- tists, and pediatricians. These projections are not at all sur- prising; in fact, they are rather simi- lar to th o s e of past BL S re p o rt s . H ow eve r, th e d ep i c ti o n o f job growth as a "no surprises" straight line does not necessarily forecast what may actually happen in the y ears ah ead. W hile th e fie lds of health and education have long been economic bulwarks in both lean and prosperous times, new technologies a re r ap i d l y b ei ng i nt ro d u ce d i n many sectors, especially those sec- tors where industries are facing spe- cial challenges or undergoing dra- matic change. How New Jobs Are Created Let us first consider some of the dynamics guiding the creation of new jobs. One guiding process is simplification. Functions often get combined because this proves more effective or efficient, such as when new needs arise, when new technol- ogies enable combining these func- tions, or when new problems de- velop th a t de m and c reat i ve solutions. This dynamic is a reflec- tion of the creative side of the econ- omy, and this creative side is what will drive much of job growth in the twenty-first century. One approach to clarifying this rather complex process is to examine the new trends affecting the work- place in the United States. New so- cial dynamics can drive new product d evelopment, t hus buildin g new markets and creating new jobs. For example: * Increasing corporate and gov- ern m ent surveil lan ce is likely t o stimulate more privacy products. * Widening income gaps may lead to a growing security industry, as the "haves" protect their holdings. * The sheer abundance of identi- cal products is raising the perceived value of handcrafted items. * New technological capabilities are making augmented reality a vi- able alternative for many (boosting wearable computing tools and per- sonalized learning markets). * Information overload is driving many to consider adopting new life- styles that offer more chances for sol- itude and simplicity. * Sleep psychology is enabling an industry of sleep-enhancing prod- ucts. * Communications technology ac- celeration is stimulating the growth of digital agents, or buyer bots, on the Internet. Yet, even driverless cars, teacher- less schools, and pilotless planes will still need maintenance (so, ground crew, mechanics, cleaners, and simi- lar services will not disappear). Re-visioning New Job Development In addition to solving new prob- lems-including those created by new technologies-other dynamics also affect the future workforce, ca- reers, and job creation. For example, a s previo us l y d i s cu ss ed i n T HE FUTURIST, job retrofitting will in- volve adding n ew p a rts to o ld er tasks or moving them to new set- tings, such as into outer space-e.g., lunar waste management. Existing job descriptio ns a re shifti ng and blending to match new conditions- e.g., an environmental health nurse would address personal health plus the environment; an "agri-restaura- teur" would blend farming plus hos- pitality, cooking, and food service. (See "70 Jobs for 2030," January- February 2011.) According to McKinsey & Com- pany, 85% of new jobs invo lv ing knowledge work also require new problem solving and strategic skills. Accordingly, another approach to foreseeing the shape of tomorrow's workforce is to evaluate what abili- ties will be needed to meet the chal- lenges of the future. These may well include creativity, analytical problem solving, teamwork and collegiality, enhanced mental flexibility, and in- creased decision speed, combined with the ability to test and validate both complex assumptions and in- teractive dynamics. New tools will also be needed to cope with problems created by social and professional fragmentation and d y s f un c t i o n, s u ch a s n avig at i o n through increasing complexity, im- proved pattern recognition, crisis res- olution, communications skills, self- directed learning, and cyberliteracy. According to the MIT Sloan Man- agement Review, no more than 10% of the individuals in a typical organiza- tion or commercial enterprise today possess the ability to look beyond existing rules and goals to create new directions. Therefore, twenty- first-century managers seeking high- performing employees will value: * Intelligence more than mere ex- perience. * Commitment and loyalty to or- ganization and task ownership. * Work ethic, including a desire to lead. * Personal integrity-particularly when facing difficult ethical dilem- mas. * Teamwork and likability - smart, hard-working people who like to work with other smart, hard- working people. Technological Unemployment While it has long been economic gospel that innovation would al- wa ys fi nd n ew wa y s to e m p lo y workers faster than they were ren- dered obsolete by automation, it is not clear that this will continue very far into the twenty-first century. For- mer U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers pegs the unemployment rate a decade from now at one in seven, as technology finally begins to be recognized as a perm anent substitute for human labor, even in white-collar professions like accoun- tancy, legal work, and technical writ- ing. White-collar automation could ultimately take over some 47% of all white-collar job categories, Summers has warned. Since the Industrial Revolution first began, new jobs were always being created even as old jobs were being done away with or drastically changed. However, while both the highly skilled (such as lawyers and doctors) and the largely unskilled (such as farmhands, dockworkers, and manual laborers) tended to ben- efit from these newly created jobs, those workers with middle-range s ki ll se ts d id not. Like the hand weavers once thrown out of work by s t eam-powe red looms, m id-lev el managers and accountants are facing the same sort of risks today. Work automation today isn't just about efficiently repeating standard- ized tasks. And patterns of imple- mentation of automation vary by in- dustry, country, and economic sector. For example, in Japan, robotics are likely to be at the center of new man- ufacturing, but in India, human la- bor continues to hold its own, as it is still relatively inexpensive. This shuffling among new technol- o gie s an d p o te nt i a l bu sin ess re- sponses is what sets the pace for so- cial change. As The Economist has pointed out, 10 years ago no one be- lieved that self-driven cars would ever be viable, let alone at the verge of commercialization. Computers will soon be able to perform detailed image processing on X rays, text-mine legal materials, and turn out fault-free analyses of tax forms by breaking these daunt- ingly complex cognitive tasks into smaller and smaller task units. While automation has often been said to help workers rather than re- place them, surely one of the first markets for self-driving cars will be the taxi-cab industry. In fact, taxis have already been on the receiving e n d o f a d i sru pt i ve t e c h nol o g y: Uber 's ride-sharing app, which al- lows users to summon others when they need a ride, thus disrupting the already-in-place taxi-management system. Strikes, aggressive regula- tion, and even legislation have all been responses to competition per- ceived as unfair throughout Europe and the United States. "Unfair competition" is also on t h e wa y f ro m ma c hi ne a na l y s i s, whic h is beco mi ng s o p hi sti c a t ed enough in such areas as text-mining legal documents that it could soon surpass the abilities of paralegals or other skilled humans. This profi- ciency is a matter not just of speed, accuracy, and cost, but also of the ability to critically assess logical re- lationships and suggest successful legal strategies-and then present t h o se a s se ss me nt s i n in n o v a t i v e graphic formats that laypersons can easily grasp. Some work functions, such as fast- food service, are not likely to be cost- effective to automate. Moreover, the ad hoc and interactive nature of a b urri to prod u c ti o n l i ne li ke at Chipotle Mexican Grill (where spe- cific customer preferences require a customized response and worker agility) could flabbergast an auto- m a te d s y s t e m o r e ls e f o rc i b ly streamline the process to the point of alienating consumers. Another thing to consider is that the push fo r in creasing the mi ni- mum wage could reduce the avail- ability of job opportunities for low- s killed o r l an gua ge-ch a l l en ge d workers nationwide, as such regu- lation may push smaller businesses out of that market. Technologies in the Tool Kits Mobile media at work is becoming the primary versus secondary worker network, so employers will need to support complete intercon- nectivity. "Gen Mobile" is a behav- ioral demographic with a preference for nontraditional work hours, flex- ible work locations, and Internet connectivity. These items may at times be traded off against premium salary levels in job negotiations. BYOD (bring your own device) policies are expanding distributed- core communications architectures, with sync and share files as the base. Of course, the challenge here is to successfully walk the productivity line between not enough connectiv- ity and much too much. While the selection and hiring of personnel still remains an art rather than a science, there has been some progress in quantifying (and thus potentially automating) the process for domains such as open-source programming. The growing use of "engines of meaning" in human re- s ou rc es a n d o t he r a re as wil l be driven by big data analysis and on- going improvements in AI capabili- ties-and add to downsizing in an- other white-collar area. Transformation of Travel and Meetings Industry One of the most wide-reaching influences on the future of work worldwide is the business travel and meeting industry. Not only a power- house behind business hiring and project negotiations, the industry also offers a framework for training and business-practice benchmarking globally. In 2013, global business travel sur- passed 432 million trips, with busi- ness being conducted in hotel rooms, lounges, lobbies, meeting rooms, conference breakout sessions, and other impromptu/informal settings. This includes interactive research m eeting s, where a u dien ce s a re polled electronically on issues, val- ues, and preferences. In addition, session s are increasing ly being simulcast globally and locally, so interactivity and attendance at ses- sions can run in parallel. A growing challenge for business conferences is convincing employers of the return on investment from live meeting attendance and how it is possible to partner with both on-site and remote attendees at the same conference to achieve business goals. And as the ease and reliability of in- ternational connectivity increases, the need to provide value for live at- tendees coming from further away at greater expense also increases. Meeting managers can do this by better understanding business train- ing and ways to maximize the effec- tiveness of the learning experience offered by conferences and meetings. Strategies include: * U n de rs ta ndin g n e uro sc i en ce and how we learn-expanding the range of delivery systems at confer- ence-repetition and skill-building (Maker Faire model) activities. * Discerning how to effectively move from knowledge to learning, and thus avoid overloading an audi- ence with information beyond the point where they can process and as- similate it. Attendees at meetings are often stressed by this massive over- load of new information and tend to " z one out, " because the ir b r a in s can't digest it all. One id ea is to avoid 7 a.m. sessions, but have more evening sessions and networking events at other times of day, when greater effectiveness is possible. * Enhancing the engagement of all t he se nse s (sigh t, he ari ng , t aste , smell, and touch) and maximizing the use of more flexible, open-space organizing approaches. * Encouraging person-to-person collaboration and supporting cre- ative gamification activities (inter- active content that encourages en- gagement) and "hackathons," such as problem-solving exercises and the building of new solutions for exist- ing problems. Of course, the biggest transforma- tive technology in the business meet- ing world is a potentially very dis- ruptive one, that of 3-D holographic imaging. In the United States, Cisco S ys te ms ha s had a Te l e P re se n c e product in the marketplace since 2013. Straightforward videoconfer- e ncin g in c l ud es a c l e ar se ns e of watching long-distance participants on a screen, but Cisco TelePresence provides both the sense of "in-the- same-room" participation and the opportunity for long-distance third parties to observe this holographic interaction as if it were a conven- t i o n a l m e e ti n g . No w M i c ro s oft , which has been working on a com- petitive technology for decades, is utilizing a Skype base for its View- point product, now nearing beta de- velopment. It is not clear how soon either tech- nology will broadly affect the world of w ork , h o wev er. The re wi ll be some body-language data recorded that could be mined for meaning, but more-complex electronic oppor- tunities for mutual persuasion and influence that rival face-to-face en- counters are not likely to be competi- tive for some time. Shifting Markets and Jobs within Those Markets The transformation of markets has been a major impact of new commu- nications technology, and one signif- icant impact has been the growth of prosumers-individuals and groups who are both producers and con- s um e r s. Fo r exa mp l e , th e D I Y "maker" movement is being acceler- ated by rapidly expanding 3-D/4-D printing (the latter incorporates in- teractive features in the final product that continue to increase their utility after printing). When imagining a future market- place and future customers, don't forget that customers may not be lo- cally or even nationally based. The globe is now everyone's backyard, which drives a whole new set of lo- gistics (outreach and delivery) and imposes new values, shaped by the nu m b e r of different c ultures one must now work with. The diversity of both domestic and overseas markets is increasing and b ecom i ng eas i er t o track , w hich means there will be a need to de- velop multiple marketing channels to more effectively address different language s, customs, education, income, etc. (and all the job positions thus created). Change is ravaging the retail in- dustry: change in how people shop (mobile point of sale), and change in how people congregate (disappear- ance of the mall and the mall rat). The Internet offers user-friendly sys- tems that allow customers to search and select products, handle sale and distribution (for pick up or delivery to store or home) from their arm- chairs or offices. This has led to the global decline of the shopping mall-transforming the shopping experience and the lives of those who worked there. Shopping center vacancies have al- m os t d o ub l ed sin ce 2 0 06 - so me with vacancies above 40% and many retail centers approaching failure. The causes of this retail failure in- clude the global recession, the new ways consumers use technology to sh op, and fac ili t y overexpansion alongside the U.S. housing boom. The fact that failing shopping centers have the lower rents often leads mar- ginal businesses to "fail together," while the strongest tenants consoli- date in better locations. To combat these challenges, em- ployment strategists (including em- ployers, workers, and policy makers) will need imagination, new commu- nities and networks, and new com- munications strategies. This will re- quire thinking creatively, and people are still ahead of artificial intelli- gence in that department. Workplace Demographics One workforce group where changes are proving to be dramatic and lasting is among those over age 55. In 2012, only Japan reported 30% or more of its citizens older than 55 years of age, but by 2030, there will be 64 such countries in that category (the United States alone will have 34%, and Europe will be the oldest region with 36%). Health remains the top reason for early retirement, but 39% leave for more leisure. Most are also looking for new solutions to protect against rising health-care costs, including the cost of long-term care. In contrast to previous Sunbelt mi- grations in the United States, retire- ment-in-place is growing much more common, even in Snowbelt areas. The end of the boomer "boom" in 2030 already suggests that a slow- down of economic growth may be coming. Meanwhile, another workforce co- hort of concern are the many millen- nials who have not gone on to col- lege. A recent Pew Research Center survey found that employed millen- nial-age (now 25-32 years old) high- school graduates were earning an average of $18,000 less annually than college graduates in the same age group. As well, they were four times more likely to be unemployed (12%) and three times more likely to live below the poverty line (22%). In contrast, average retirement-age workers now work 4.2 years past their projected retirement date, and almost 70% consider seeking em- ployment of some kind after offi- cially retiring. This can include flex- retirement and volunteering in order to use one's life skills to assist non- profits. Certainly a big change is coming in Social Security. The twentieth- century Social Security model was built on an assumption of 150 work- e r s for each re t iree. B y 2030, we sh ould ex pect that ratio in t he United States to be down to two workers for each retiree. That defi- nite ly means si gni fi cant p olicy change, as millennials will represent 30% of the electorate by 2030-and 12% unemployment for those with only a high-school diploma portends civic discontent. Given the fact that there will be 80 million millennials in the United States by 2020, they will be a political force to be reck- oned with. The postretirement job market will require successful candidates to fo- cus on their personal core competen- cies, especially among those re-ca- reering beyond age 55. Besides the growth of peer-to-peer services from the elderly to the elderly, there is also the significant growth potential in collateral markets, including con- struction of new service facilities (e.g., community, assisted-living, and nursing homes). In addition, smart-home tech (health monitoring, security, connectivity) also brings with it positions in managing, in- stalling, and repairing the hardware and software to run a smart home, as these collateral industries grow. Beyond the Workplace Horizon We have considered a number of less-c on ven ti on a l future s for the world of work, but only skimmed the truly adventuresome, such as the eventual impact of 3-D printing (ad- ditive manufacturing). Will it be- com e a v eri table horn of plen ty, whi ch c ould s u p p ly a ll hu m a n wants and thus nullify the need to "work to live"? While the physical and economic specifics shaping this "Black Swan" outcome are yet un- clear, cultural and values dynamics have the potential to change the way we see work in the near future. Many boomer retirees appear to be m ovi ng away from the idea of "working for money alone" (or at all). An increasing number of retirees aim to provide value to society as volunteers without being rewarded in a traditional manner. In contrast, many high-school-graduate millen- nials agree that work and the iden- tity it provides may not be at the center of personal or social life, often seeing work as "just a job to get by" (42% on the Pew survey). As the manner in which individu- als and their demographic cohorts view the world of work changes, and as social values evolve, these shifts in attitude and action shape the future of work just as much as technology and economic forces. The future has always been the outcome of a broad range of interactive fac- tors, and shifts in attitude drive hu- man behavior as much or more than automation or recessions. ? "This shuffling among new technologies and potential business re- sponses is what sets the pace for social change. As The Economist has pointed out, 10 years ago no one believed that self-driven cars would ever be viable, let alone at the verge of commercialization." "When imagining a future marketplace and future customers, don't forget that customers may not be locally or even nationally based. The globe is now everyone's backyard." "To combat these challenges, employment strategists will need imagination, new communities and networks, and new commu- nications strategies. This will require thinking creatively, and people are still ahead of artificial intelligence in that department." About the Author Timothy C. Mack is the for- mer president of the World Future Society (2004-2014) and executive editor of World Future Review. His previous article for THE FUTURIST, "Privacy and the Surveillance Explosion," was published in January-February 2014. E-mail [email protected]. (c) 2014 World Future Society |