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Thailand will have 81.8 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Advanced Info Service's market share declining to 42.3%, according to new market research report by IEMR(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Vancouver -- IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 4Q09 Thailand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013. "Wireless subscriber growth in Thailand continues to be strong, and we forecast that total mobile subscriber accounts in Thailand will increase from 62.6 million in 2008 to 81.8 million in 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Advanced Info Service will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 34.6 million wireless subscribers in 2013. Total Access Communication will remain in second place with 24.7 million subscribers in 2013, and True will remain in third place with 21.3 million subscribers in 2013." "In terms of ARPUs, we expect that the industry average monthly ARPU level in Thailand will decline from THB 230 in 2008 to THB 187 in 2013. Our model predicts that the average monthly ARPU will be THB 217 for Advanced Info Service, and THB 210 at Total Access Communication in 2013. On the other hand, True's ARPU will remain much lower, declining from THB 131 in 2008 to THB 113 in 2013," said Mr. Assanie. IEMR's Thailand Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Thailand - Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited, Total Access Communication Public Company Limited, True Corporation Public Company Limited, and Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited. Notable highlights of the 4Q09 Thailand Mobile Operator Forecast include: * Our model predicts that Advanced Info Service will see its subscriber market share decline from 44.5% in 2008 to 42.3% in 2013. On the other hand, we forecast that True's market share will increase from 24.0% in 2008 to 26.1% in 2013. Total Access Communication's share of total subscribers will remain at approximately 30% over the next five years. We expect that Hutchison's market share in Thailand will remain in the range of 1.2% - 1.6% over the next five years. * We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 35.1% in 2008 to 27.3% in 2013. Advanced Info Service will continue to enjoy the highest level of profitability (EBITDA margin) in Thailand, but its EBITDA margin will still decline from 42.2% in 2008 to 33.9% in 2013. Total Access Communication's margin will fall from 30.8% in 2008 to 22.5% in 2013. True's margin will fall from 18.8% in 2008 to 16.1% in 2013. IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1323&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited Total Access Communication Public Company Limited True Corporation Public Company Limited Hutchison Telecommunications International Limited (For Hutchison, only the subscriber data is available.) Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR * POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR ** MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR ** DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ** MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR ** VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ** MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ** MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ** SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ** SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ** CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ** (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ** EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) ** VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) ** SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ** * Available only for Advanced Info Service ** Available only for Advanced Info Service and Total Access Communication ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) (c) 2009 M2 COMMUNICATIONS |