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Australia will have 31.2 million wireless subscribers in 2013 with market share of Vodafone Hutchison Australia increasing to 30.2%, according to new market research report by IEMR(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Vancouver -- IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 4Q09 Australia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013. "We observed strong subscriber growth at Telstra and Optus in the latest quarter, and we forecast that total mobile subscribers in Australia will increase from 23.6 million in 2008 to 31.2 million in 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Telstra will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 12.8 million subscribers in 2013. Our model predicts that Vodafone Hutchison Australia will have 9.42 million subscribers and Optus will have 9.02 million subscribers by the end of 2013." "Merger between Vodafone and Hutchison in 1Q.2009 resulted in changes in competitive dynamics. First of all, we expect that Telstra's subscriber market share will remain in the range of 41% - 42% over the next five years. On the other hand, we expect that Optus's market share will decline as that of Vodafone Hutchison Australia increases over the next several years. We forecast that Optus's market share will fall from 31.7% to 28.9% and Vodafone Hutchison Australia's market share will increase from 26.4% to 30.2% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013," said Mr. Assanie. IEMR's Australia Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Australia - Telstra Corporation Limited, SingTel Optus Pty Limited, and Vodafone Hutchison Australia Pty Ltd. Notable highlights of the 4Q09 Australia Mobile Operator Forecast include: * Although ARPU levels are declining in most countries around the world, that is not the case with Australia. Our model forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU level will increase slightly from AUD 49.95 in 2008 to AUD 50.80 in 2013. Vodafone Hutchison Australia's ARPU level is higher than Telstra and Optus. We expect that monthly ARPUs at Vodafone Hutchison Australia, Telstra, and Optus will be approximately AUD 53.70, AUD 51.45, and AUD 46.92 respectively in 2013. * Our model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will rise from 29.1% in 2008 to 31.6% in 2013. * However, we expect that the largest operator, Telstra, will see its EBITDA margin fall from 36.5% in 2008 to 30.0% in 2013 as its EBITDA grows more slowly than its revenue over the next several years. IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1322&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast Telstra Corporation Limited SingTel Optus Pty Limited Vodafone Hutchison Australia Pty Ltd (Vodafone Group Plc and Hutchison Telecoms Australia Limited until 1Q.2009) Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) * SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR * CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR * (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR * EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) * * Available only for SingTel Optus Pty Limited and Hutchison Telecoms (Australia) Limited ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) (c) 2009 M2 COMMUNICATIONS |