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China will have 1.17 billion mobile subscribers in 2013 with China Mobile taking 71.3% subscriber market share, according to new market research report by IEMR(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Vancouver - IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 4Q09 China Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013. "Double-digit subscriber growth continues in China's mobile operator space. The industry-average subscriber growth was 15.7% in 2Q.2009. Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that total mobile subscribers in China will increase from 641.2 million in 2008 to 1.17 billion in 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Our model predicts that the largest operator, China Mobile, will have 833.7 million subscribers in 2013. China Unicom will have 178.9 million and China Telecom will have 133.0 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013, according to our model." "We think that ARPU levels are stabilizing at China Unicom and China Telecom. We expect that China Mobile will see its monthly ARPU decrease from RMB 83.00 in 2008 to RMB 62.41 in 2013. On the other hand, we forecast that ARPUs at China Unicom and China Telecom will be stable at approximately RMB 41 and RMB 63 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013," said Mr. Assanie. IEMR's China Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in China - China Mobile Ltd., China Unicom Ltd., and China Telecom Corporation Limited. Notable highlights of the 4Q09 China Mobile Operator Forecast include: * We expect that China Telecom's subscriber market share will increase from 4.4% in 2008 to 11.4% in 2013. On the other hand, China Unicom, which sold part of its operations to China Telecom in 2008, will see its subscriber market share fall from 20.8% in 2008 to 15.3% in 2013. We forecast that China Mobile will maintain its high market share in the Chinese wireless market over the next five years. We expect that its share of total subscribers will be 71.3% in 2013. * According to our forecasting model, China Mobile's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 52.5% in 2008 to 57.9% in 2013. China Unicom's EBITDA margin will remain lower. We expect that China Unicom's EBITDA margin will be 26.9% in 2013. IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1321&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast China Mobile Ltd. China Unicom Ltd. China Telecom Corporation Limited Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) * CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) * SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) * EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR * EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR * EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR * CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR * CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR * (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR * EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR * REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) * CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) * * Available only for China Mobile Ltd. and China Unicom Ltd. 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