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Nigeria will have 121.5 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with MTN taking market share of 35.0%, according to new market research report by IEMR(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Vancouver -- IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 4Q09 Nigeria Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013. "Strong subscriber growth continues in Nigeria's wireless market. The industry average subscriber growth was 31.9% in 2Q.2009. The wireless penetration rate in Nigeria is currently still below 50%, and we expect that the Nigerian wireless market will continue to expand rapidly over the next several years," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Our model forecasts that total mobile subscribers in Nigeria will increase from 63.0 million in 2008 to 121.5 million in 2013." "MTN will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Nigeria. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 23.1 million in 2008 to 42.6 million in 2013. Also, we forecast that the number of mobile subscribers at MTC will increase from 17.2 million in 2008 to 27.5 million in 2013. We also expect that Nitel's subscriber base will increase dramatically over the next several years to reach 24.1 million in 2013. We also predict that Globalcom will have 27.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013," said Mr. Assanie. IEMR's Nigeria Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Nigeria - MTN Group Limited, MTC - Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain Group), Nitel - Nigerian Telecommunications Limited, and Globacom Ltd. Notable highlights of the 4Q09 Nigeria Mobile Operator Forecast include: * We forecast that, while MTN will continue to be in the leading position in Nigeria's wireless market, it will be losing its subscriber market share to smaller operators over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013. Our model predicts that MTN's share of total subscribers will fall from 36.6% in 2008 to 35.0% in 2013. MTC will also see its market share decline from 27.3% in 2008 to 22.7% in 2013. We expect that market shares at Nitel and Globacom will be 19.9% and 22.5% respectively in 2013. * We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 48.2% in 2008 to 53.2% in 2013. MTN will continue to enjoy a high level of profitability in Nigeria's wireless market. Our model predicts that MTN's EBITDA margin will increase from 58.0% in 2008 to 62.1% in 2013. On the other hand, MTC will see an increase in its EBITDA margin from 35.6% in 2008 to 37.7% in 2013. IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1306&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast MTN Group Limited MTC - Mobile Telecommunications Company (Zain Group) Nitel - Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (For Nitel, only the subscriber data is available.) Globacom Ltd. (For Globacom, only the subscriber data is available.) Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR ** POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR * MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR * DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) * MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR * VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) * MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) * MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) * SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) * VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) * SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) * Not available for this country forecast ** Available only for MTN Group Limited ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) (c) 2009 M2 COMMUNICATIONS |