[November 17, 2009] IE Market Research Corporation: The Ukrainian wireless market will have 60.7 million subscribers in 2013 with UMC's market share declining to 31.6%, according to new market research report by IEMR Tweet Vancouver, Nov 17, 2009 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 4Q09 Ukraine Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013. "Subscriber growth in the Ukrainian wireless market turned negative in the latest quarter. The industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009 was -0.9%. Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that total wireless subscribers in Ukraine will reach 60.7 million in 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "Kyivstar will continue to have the highest number of subscribers among other operators. We expect that Kyivstar will have 24.7 million subscribers in 2013. Also, we expect that UMC will have 19.2 million subscribers and Astelit will have 12.3 million subscribers in 2013." "In terms of ARPUs, our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will remain in the range of UAH 35 - UAH 37 over the next several years. We expect that URS (VimpelCom) will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in Ukraine at UAH 40.97 in 2013. On the other hand, we expect that the largest operator, Kyivstar, will see its monthly ARPU decline from UAH 44.38 in 2008 to UAH 35.21 in 2013," said Mr. Assanie. IEMR's Ukraine Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Ukraine - UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications), Kyivstar GSM, Astelit LLC, and URS (VimpelCom). Notable highlights of the 4Q09 Ukraine Mobile Operator Forecast include: * We forecast that Astelit's subscriber market share will increase from 18.0% to 20.4% and URS (VimpelCom)'s market share will increase from 4.6% to 5.6% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013. Although Kyivstar will continue to maintain its subscriber market share lead, we expect that Kyivstar's market share will decline from 41.6% in 2008 to 40.7% in 2013. We also expect that UMC's market share will decline from 34.8% in 2008 to 31.6% in 2013. * We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be in the range of 43% - 46% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013. We expect that Kyivstar's EBITDA margin will remain strong at approximately 59% from 2009 to 2013. Our model forecasts that UMC's EBITDA margin will be lower at 44.8% in 2013, slightly down from 45.2% in 2013. IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1305&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications) Kyivstar GSM Astelit LLC URS (VimpelCom) Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR * POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR * MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR * DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) * MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR ** VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ** MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ** MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ** SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) * VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) ** SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) * Available only for UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications) ** Available only for UMC (Ukrainian Mobile Communications), Kyivstar GSM, and URS (VimpelCom) CONTACT: Mr. Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research), IE Market Research Tel: +1 604 327 4367 e-mail: [email protected] WWW: http://www.iemarketresearch.com ((M2 Communications disclaims all liability for information provided within M2 PressWIRE. 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