TMCnet News
Bangladesh will have 69.1 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with GrameenPhone's market share declining to 37.1%, according to new market research report by IEMR(M2 PressWIRE Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Vancouver -- IE Market Research Corp. (IEMR), the Canadian-based provider of market intelligence services, announced today the release of its 3Q09 Bangladesh Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013. "GrameenPhone continues to be the leader in Bangladesh's mobile operator space. We expect that GrameenPhone will have 25.7 million wireless subscribers by the end of 2013," said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR. "However, we forecast that GrameenPhone's subscriber market share will decline from 43.8% in 2008 to 37.1% in 2013. Our model also predicts that TM International's subscriber market share will fall from 17.5% in 2008 to 15.3% in 2013. On the other hand, Bangalink's market share will be increasing from 21.6% in 2008 to 25.9% in 2013. We think that the other smaller operators including PBTL, Warid and BTTB will also see their subscriber market shares increase over the next several years." "In terms of ARPUs, we forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from USD 3.54 to USD 2.20 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013. Given the past and the current pricing strategies at the operators, our model predicts that Bangalink's ARPU will decrease from USD 2.99 in 2008 to USD 2.29 in 2013, and GrameenPhone's ARPU will fall from USD 3.81 in 2008 to USD 2.14 in 2013," said Mr. Assanie. IEMR's Bangladesh Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 financial and operational metrics on wireless operators in Bangladesh - Banglalink, GrameenPhone, TM Int'l, PBTL, Warid, and BTTB. Notable highlights of the 3Q09 Bangladesh Mobile Operator Forecast include: * Total wireless subscribers in Bangladesh will increase from 47.9 million in 2008 to 69.1 million in 2013. GrameenPhone will maintain its leading position in Bangladesh's wireless market over the next five years with 25.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013. Bangalink, TM International, Warid and PBTL will remain in second, third, fourth and fifth place respectively. BTTB will finish last. * We expect that GrameenPhone's profitability will be increasing over the forecast period. Our model predicts that GrameenPhone's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 45.6% in 2008 to 55.8% in 2013. IEMR's Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50 countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. To purchase this report, visit our website at: http://www.iemarketresearch.com/Members/Reports/ViewReportDetail.aspx?RID=1258&flag=1 Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast Banglalink/Sheba (Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E) GrameenPhone (Telenor ASA) TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia Berhad) PBTL (Singapore Telecommunications Ltd) Warid Telecom International (For Warid, only the subscriber data is available.) BTTB (Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board) Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: Mar 2003 - Mar 2011 PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY) SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR ** POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR *** MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *** DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR * MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR * DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) * MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR *** VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *** VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *** VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *** MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *** MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *** SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *** CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *** EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *** EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *** REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) * VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *** SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *** CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *** * Not available for this country forecast ** Available only for Bangalink/Sheba *** Available only for Bangalink/Sheba and GrameenPhone ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) (c) 2009 M2 COMMUNICATIONS |