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Poll: Specter hurtingMar 25, 2009 (The Times-Tribune - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- Republican U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter could have a tougher time winning his own's party's nomination next year than winning a general election, a new Franklin & Marshall College/Times-Shamrock poll shows. Mr. Specter is viewed favorably by a majority of the state's registered voters, who also think he's doing a good job. But more than half of Republicans want someone other than the 79-year-old moderate Republican from Philadelphia as their nominee. * New: Quinnipiac Poll shows Specter trailing Toomey * View the poll results (pdf) * Related: Pennsylvania voters back expanded gambling Chris Nicholas, a spokesman for Mr. Specter's re-election campaign, declined to comment on the poll. In a move that could help boost his standing among Republicans, Mr. Specter announced Tuesday on the Senate floor that he would oppose legalizing the process known as "card check," which would allow the formation of unions through the signing of union cards by a majority of an employer's workers. The poll surveyed 586 registered voters between March 17 and 22 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It found: -- Almost half (48 percent) of all voters view Mr. Specter favorably, compared to almost a quarter (24 percent) who view him unfavorably. -- More than half (52 percent) said Mr. Specter is doing a good or excellent job compared to more than a third (37 percent) who think he does a fair or poor job. -- Eight in 20 voters (40 percent) said Mr. Specter deserves re-election compared to more than nine in 20 (46 percent) who said it's time for a change. The picture in the re-election question was far worse among Republicans, with 41 percent saying he deserves re-election and 51 percent saying he should be replaced. Those numbers may belie the beliefs of the 42 percent of registered Republicans who said they don't know whom they would support in a contest between Mr. Specter, former U.S. Rep. Patrick Toomey and Peg Luksik. Mr. Toomey and Mrs. Luksik are the two Republicans likeliest at the moment to challenge for the party's Senate nomination. But among those who did express a preference, Mr. Specter had 33 percent support to 18 percent for Mr. Toomey and 2 percent for Mrs. Luksik. Five percent named other candidates. The Republican sample was 211 registered Republicans, with a margin of error of 6.7 percentage points. "There's a solid core of Republican voters ... maybe a third who are pretty steadfastly against him," said poll director G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., a noted analyst of state politics. Dr. Madonna said the favorable view of Mr. Specter is driven by Democrats, who nonetheless aren't ready to send him back to Washington for another term. That explains the majority who said it's time for a change, he said. "Even though they say he's doing a good job, there's still a fair number of people who think he's been in there five terms, it's time for a change. ... It could his age, it could be his health." The poll was conducted before Mr. Specter announced his position on card check, which in legislative form is known as the Employee Free Choice Act. In his floor speech, Mr. Specter said card check would eliminate the secret ballot that allows workers to privately vote on unionization. He called the secret ballot the "cornerstone of how contests are decided in a democratic society." He also criticized a provision that would require binding arbitration if a new deal isn't negotiated after 120 days of bargaining on a contract with a newly formed union. Mr. Specter said he prefers amending federal labor law through other means. He also said he realized he could cast the deciding vote on the issue in the Senate. "The problem(s) of the recession make this a particularly bad time to enact employees' choice legislation," he said. But he would be willing to reconsider card check once the economy "returns to normalcy" if amendments to labor law fail to give unions sufficient bargaining power, he said. Conservative Republicans, business groups and unions are making Mr. Specter's decision on card check a litmus test on whether they will support him. Some union leaders have said they would back Mr. Specter if he favored it and oppose him if he didn't. The opposite is true of conservative Republicans and business groups. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce praised him Tuesday while a labor-friendly group, American Rights at Work, criticized him. Mr. Toomey ripped the senator, noting his willingness to reconsider card check. "I think everybody sees this for the political flip-flop that it is," he said, referring to Mr. Specter's vote last year in favor of allowing a Senate vote on card check. "Bottom line is as soon as he thought he could survive politically, he would vote to eliminate the secret ballot." Mrs. Luksik credited Mr. Specter for doing "the right thing," but said "it's a shame" that it required "political pressure." "He's trying hard to mend fences with the Republican Party. If he thinks this one vote will do it, he's mistaken," she said. Contact the writer: [email protected] To see more of The Times-Tribune or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/. Copyright (c) 2009, The Times-Tribune, Scranton, Pa. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email [email protected], call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA. |