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Economy's got us down, but not out
(Record, The (Hackensack, NJ) Via Acquire Media NewsEdge) Mar. 1--North Jersey residents are realists about the unprecedented economic crisis the nation faces, but they are not panicked, a poll by The Record shows.
The survey, although taken prior to President Obama's speech Tuesday, reveals a public in step with his view that the nation's financial difficulties are profound but surmountable.
Nearly three in four of the 600 adults in Bergen and Passaic counties included in the survey said they have cut spending.
A little more than half of respondents with full-time jobs are concerned or very concerned about their job security. A like number expect the national economic picture to get worse before it gets better. And nearly half are concerned that the value of their home could erode further.
Yet for all the economic anxiety, the poll also shows that the downturn has not cut deeply into many families' financial affairs.
Sixty-one percent said their family's situation is the same as a year ago, and 48 percent don't expect their situation to change in the next year. Seventy-eight percent of poll respondents said they didn't know anyone who had lost a job in the last six months.
A tandem of questions helps put the public's sentiment in focus.
While a majority of respondents rejected the suggestion that the problem is only a "short-term down cycle," they overwhelming dismissed the notion that the country is headed for an economic tsunami similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Still, the results show that worry runs deep.
"The trends are clear," said Joseph Seneca, a Rutgers University economics professor. "Individuals perceive the economy as deteriorating. They are concerned about their job security, and the outlook is for no turnaround in the near future."
"The visceral indicator is the employment one," he said. "The large increase in unemployment has more and more people looking over their shoulders. And that has significant negative connotations about consumer spending."
Sheila Wright of Harrison is a single mom who lost her executive-assistant job in November after two decades in the financial services industry.
"I have seen the good, the bad and the ugly," said Wright, 39, as she was interviewed at the Secaucus outlet of Wal-Mart, a company whose revenue has swelled from customers looking to save money.
The current situation, she said, is "the ugly, without a doubt. I've never seen it so bad."
North Bergen resident Hector Vasquez, 28, a data analyst, said he is "a little pessimistic" about the future, a perception shaped in part by seeing about one-third of the 250 people in his IT department at Liz Claiborne get pink slips.
"It might hit rock bottom and stay there for a while," Vasquez said of the overall economy. "Just how much damage has been done? ... A lot, across the board, has been lost."
The poll, conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md., between Feb. 18 and 22, comes as job figures show New Jersey sinking deeper into recession. The state lost 63,000 jobs in 2008, and more people are claiming unemployment insurance than at any time since 1987, the earliest record available.
On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of New Jersey claimants increased to 213,378 in the first week of this month, the most recent figure. Unemployment in the state, for months lower than in the nation, drew almost even in December. And although the national unemployment rate rose in January, New Jersey will learn Wednesday if its own rate will follow.
The impact of such economic turmoil on consumer confidence is clear from the poll.
Only 23 percent of those polled said they had made no lifestyle adjustments in response to the recession.
The increased frugality was present in all sections of the economic spectrum.
Just 14 percent of those earning less than $35,000 a year said they had not cut spending. Thirty-four percent of those earning more than $200,000 said they had made no adjustments.
Of those that have changed spending, 27 percent said they were buying less-expensive items and 14 percent said they were going out to dinner less. Nine percent said they had put off buying a car.
On a more positive note, just 6 percent of those polled said they had cut back on necessities such as clothing and food. And only 3 percent said they had cut back on their summer vacation plans.
School bus driver Madeline Delbrey finds herself in that small minority. She won't be able to make her regular visit to see family in Puerto Rico this year.
The Jersey City resident was among several Wal-Mart shoppers who said they visit the store more often now.
Delbrey said she used to shop at Wal-Mart three times a month, and now comes once or twice a week because some food items are cheaper than at supermarkets. She said she can save on juice, cereal and crackers for her husband and their three young foster children.
Sophia Olechowski of Garfield said she had cut back on such items as pedicures, manicures, facials and dining out with her friends.
The 53-year-old administrator said she is worried about the future but keeps the crisis in perspective because she grew up in Poland, where poverty was prevalent.
"I can live without certain things," she said.
Higher up the income scale, customers at Napa Valley Grille in Paramus have also changed their habits to save money.
Where customers in the past would regularly spend $50 each, they now go more for a fixed-price menu for $38 per person and cheap finger foods and pizza during a happy hour, said assistant general manager George Leontaris. Both menus were introduced to maintain customer flow in the tight economy, he said.
"Regular clientele are cutting back in little ways," Leontaris said, adding that he now sells more wine at $10 a glass and less at $15 a glass.
The poll leaves little doubt as to who respondents believe is responsible for the financial mess. Seventy-two percent blamed Wall Street, bankers and corporate executives, with Wall Street as the biggest culprit.
More than four in five respondents believe that executives who took bonuses based on falsely inflated financial results should face criminal prosecution.
Asked if they felt any personal responsibility for the crisis, 91 percent responded no.
Patrick O'Keefe, director of economic research for Roseland-based J.H. Cohn Accounting, said that, in general, the poll shows respondents understand the situation facing the country.
That's demonstrated in their rejection of comparisons to the 1930s and the predominance of those who think things will get worse before they get better -- a result O'Keefe called a "pretty accurate representation" of the economic data available.
"It shows an understanding that, while the economy is deteriorating at a rapid pace, the conditions are not catastrophic," he said. "It is consistent with the respondents' view that the economy is contracting, not collapsing."
To see more of The Record, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.NorthJersey.com.
Copyright (c) 2009, The Record, Hackensack, N.J.
Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
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