(News & Observer, The (Raleigh, NC) (KRT) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) Nov. 10--The mighty dollar has lost its muscle.

It's at the lowest level in decades against the Canadian dollar and the British pound. It now takes $1.47 to buy a euro.

The dollar's value has been sliding for about five years. But its weakness came into sharp focus this week after an official at China's central bank declared that the greenback is "losing its status as the world currency." His comments prompted a broad sell-off that drove the dollar to its latest lows.

The implications are many and diverse, and in a global economy, more complicated. A weak dollar can help manufacturers and hurt them, too. It can bolster job growth and lead to higher interest rates. It can send a signal about U.S. health.

"The dollar, for better or worse, is the stock price for the United States," said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics in Essex, Conn. "A declining dollar tells you that the U.S. stock is not doing very well. You have to ask yourself, 'What's wrong?' "

The growing trade deficit, for one. As the nation has imported more goods, it has sent more dollars overseas. A larger supply of dollars outside the United States makes them less valuable. It's the basic principle of supply and demand.

Record low interest rates earlier this decade also contributed. When rates are low, more money circulates. That erodes the strength of each dollar.

Those record low rates increased borrowing and fueled a housing boom. The bust that followed put the brakes on economic growth and revealed troubles in the lending markets. Those problems are further depressing the dollar. The question is, how far will the dollar slide?

"Is this sort of a bout of high blood pressure that diet and exercise can take care of? Or are we a terminal patient?" Gilmore said. Likely the former, he said. Gilmore expects the trend to reverse; history suggests that he's probably right.

The dollar tends to follow long swings, said Thomas Grennes, an economics professor at N.C. State University. The currency rose for about six years through the late 1990s and early this decade, before starting on its current trajectory in 2002.

"The exchange rate is just a price like anything else," Grennes said. "You can't make a general statement that a falling dollar is bad for everybody or a rising one is good for everybody."

The winners are ...

Domestic manufacturers are among the biggest gainers. A weak dollar means their products are effectively on sale in foreign places such as Munich or Paris.

U.S. exports in September reached a record high, and the trade deficit fell to its lowest level in more than two years.

Kingsdown, a luxury mattress manufacturer in Mebane, has seen international sales rise 29 percent this year, which the company attributes partially to the weaker dollar. Those sales have helped offset softness in the domestic market, caused by the downturn in housing.

More sales can lead to more jobs. Hickory Chair, a furniture maker in the western part of the state, has added 40 people to its payroll this year, in part on the strength of its international business.

The domestic tourism industry also benefits. New York, San Francisco and Miami are bargains for travelers from countries with stronger currencies. Tourists from London, for instance, get about $2 for every pound so they can stretch their money further.

That might be appealing for real estate investors, too. In the 1980s, wealthy Japanese snapped up deals in this country -- including Rockefeller Center in New York and Pebble Beach country club in California -- when their currency, the yen, was stronger than the dollar.

The losers include ...

Importers suffer. Even as they benefit from selling overseas, domestic manufacturers that need raw materials from foreign countries incur higher costs. European manufacturers, such as Mercedes, lose profit on autos made there and sold here. They have to eat the expenses or pass them on to customers.

And that possibility underscores one of the big risks with a weak dollar: rising prices. Though exports have increased, the nation brings in many more goods than it ships out. A large increase in prices would lead to higher living expenses here, which could cause further turmoil in the economy.

In a worst case, foreigners would lose confidence in the dollar altogether. Countries such as China that have amassed large reserves of dollars have parked them in U.S. bonds because they're considered among the safest investments.

If those countries lost faith, though, they would sell their holdings and, because of the way the market works, interest rates would skyrocket.

The nation likely would go into recession.

That's why the Chinese official's comment caused worry this week. "We will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones and will readjust accordingly," Xu Jian of the country's central bank said. China later modified the statement and alleviated some worry.

The big picture

Figuring out all the effects of the dollar's slide is complicated by the realities of the global economy.

BMW, for instance, is a German automaker, but it has a sprawling factory in South Carolina. Its expenses and sales there are in dollars, so euro-dollar exchange rates aren't an issue. IBM, a U.S. blue chip, benefits from the weak dollar because revenue earned overseas appears higher when it converts currencies.

But understanding exchange rates is important to the economic picture. Policymakers must balance many, and sometimes conflicting, factors as they guide the nation's economy. As the dollar has declined, energy prices have risen. The credit markets have stumbled.

Investors want the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to help fix the challenges in lending. But doing so would exacerbate the dollar's slide, which could spur inflation.

jonathan.cox@newsobserver.com or (919) 836-4948

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