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ITS NEVER TOO LATE FOR LENO
**hl: Will Jay stay at NBC after Tonight shift?
(Weekly Variety Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)
Three years ago, NBC announced with pride that Conan OBrien would take over The Tonight Show in 2009. But now that the date is fast approaching, the web is beginning to panic: How do we anoint OBrien but still keep Leno in the Peacocks nest?
Aside from turning around NBCs primetime, the biggest challenge facing new co-chairmen Ben Silverman and Marc Graboff is how to keep Leno away from Fox or ABC.
We want him to stay at NBC for life, Silverman told journalists at the Television Critics Association press tour. And Marc and I are aggressively trying to come up with ideas that would make Jay happy.
While latenight advertising sales have been soft, Tonight generated $250 million in advertising sales in 2006, according to TNS Media Intelligence, generating profits estimated at $160 million --- or about 15% of the networks bottom line.
NBC has already started the process of preparing OBrien to take over Tonight knowing full well that its a job that Leno still loves and, by all accounts, would have kept longer had NBC not prodded him to step aside to make room for OBrien.
Leno will be only 59 when the change-over is scheduled to occur, a decade younger than Carson was when he gave up the chair 15 years ago. Hes vigorous, loves to work, and as if holding down one of TVs toughest jobs isnt enough, he does corporate dates and travels the country doing standup on the weekends.
Anyone who assumes he will be playing golf would have to be completely removed from reason, said a source close to the comedian. Leno declined to talk about his post-2009 plans, which is telling: For years, the host as been accessible to the press, unlike rival David Letterman.
The network is hoping to emulate NBC News move from Tom Brokaw to Brian Williams. Like Leno, Brokaw was also on top of his game and the ratings when he stepped aside, and now seems happy pursuing passion projects as the networks elder statesman.
NBC has yet to present Leno with any alternatives, but among the options being floated are a primetime strip or variety show that would air once or multiple times a week, perhaps kicking off primetime at 8 p.m.; work on NBC Us cable properties and specifically USA Network, which the net is hoping to build into the de-facto fifth network; Jay-on-demand through TiVo, cable, or online; or, the Bob Hope deal, where Leno does what he wants --- just about anything but telling jokes at 11:35 pm.
The network also has the option, which many outsiders believe still must be on the table, to back out of the deal, pay a reported $40 million penalty to OBrien and sign Leno to another five-year deal, a move that would protect the Tonight franchise through the end of Lettermans deal at CBS in 2010, and the possible transition at the Eye to Jon Stewart.
NBC could, also, simply let Leno leave. A non-compete would keep Leno off another network for at least six months, allowing NBC to launch OBrien without Leno in the mix. ABC and Fox are planning as if Leno will be in play.
One thing that wont happen is a job-share arrangement where Leno subs in for OBrien. Graboff raised that possibility at TCA but quickly backed off.
Graboff, Silverman and CEO Jeff Zucker will be looking to create the digital-age version of the deal that kept Hope at NBC in semi-retirement in hopes of keeping Leno at the Peacock, knowing full well Leno wants to keep going, as he often says, telling jokes at 11:30 at night.
Right now thats where Jays head is and thats what he wants to do after 2009, Graboff says. What we are trying to say to him is, after 2009 telling jokes at 11:30 at night might not be what it is today, so maybe we can figure out a way for you to continue to do that in a different context.
Graboff is referring to a future when the timeslot of any network show becomes less relevant as linear TV moves to a time-shifted, on-demand world. The erosion of TV ratings has hit latenight as hard as any day part, but comparatively, Tonight is as dominant as its ever been. This fall Leno will mark his 12th season in the lead over Late Night with David Letterman, and as of the second quarter his ratings margin was 39%.
Tonights continuing success is one reason some are skeptical NBC will implement the change as announced. Yet, NBC execs are steadfast that no matter how dominant Leno is in 2009, the transition will occur. His audience is aging, they say, and its best to attempt a transition while Leno is still on top of his game and top of the ratings.
Leno has the oldest aud in latenight, with a median age of 52, compared with 51 for Letterman and 44 for OBrien, according to a Magna Global analysis of Nielsen ratings.
In the meantime, NBC has already begun the process of preparing OBrien to take over the iconic franchise, and the net is already spending to lay the ground work.
NBC is in talks with OBrien and his staff on a move from Studio 6A at 30 Rock to Los Angeles. NBC Latenight prexy Rick Ludwin believes OBrien and much of his staff will ultimately make the move, though there has been some resistance.
Johnny Carson brought the show to L.A. 35 years ago and Ludwin says the original reasons for the move are still relevant: a bigger studio and proximity to stars. A final decision on the move is expected early next year.
NBC is focusing on giving OBrien opportunities to appear in primetime. Hes hosted the Emmys twice, and the Peacock is giving him another primetime special in late January, to further boost his profile.
Hes hosted NBCs 50 Years of Latenight special, as well as his own 10th anniversary special.
Taking his act from subversive to broad means some of his signature characters wont be making the move to 11:35, such as the masturbating bear.
Frankly this is one of the reasons we trusted him with the franchise of The Tonight Show because hes smart enough and funny enough to figure out what is going to work in whatever venue hes assigned to, Ludwin says.
In the beginning, OBrien tried to distinguish himself from Leno by not doing a traditional monologue. He has adopted one since and now that hes preparing to take over 11:30, hes lengthened it from three to four opening jokes to 10.
NBC traveled the show to San Francisco in May, and Chicago and Toronto before that to get OBrien and the staff used to doing bigger shows in unfamiliar, less intimate venues.
Finally, NBC has already begun the search for Conans replacement. We have been talking to people about their potential interest, Ludwin says. Its a short list of people who can do these jobs and do them well.
Copyright 2007 Reed Business Information - US
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