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GRC workshop urges Asian role in Gulf security(Al Bawaba Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)The relations between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Asia must grow beyond the economic dynamic and encompass political and security arrangements for any meaningful partnership in the future, according to experts attending a workshop on GCC-Asia relations in Dubai on January 4 and 5, 2006. Organized by the Gulf Research Center (GRC), the workshop entitled "Dynamic Alliances: Strengthening ties between GCC and Asia," was held on the sidelines of the Centers third annual conference. Apart from Secretary-General of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) Ong Keng Yong and former foreign minister of Japan Koji Kakizawa, more than 75 experts from the region and outside examined the political, economic and security dimensions of the relationship between the two sides, and proposed ways of improving them. In his opening remarks, Chairman of the GRC Abdulaziz Sager highlighted the importance of the oil, trade and human issues pertaining to the GCC-Asia relations. "It is natural that increasing economic ties will impact the political and security dynamics and even keep open the possibility of them taking a more central role," he added. Emphasizing the reason behind the workshop topic, the GRC Chairman said Asia consumes 23 million barrels per day, which is 30 percent of the worlds demand. The GCC exports two-thirds of its oil output to Asia, which could more than double by 2020. Further, more than half of GCC exports go to Asian countries while a third of GCC imports are from Asia. Together, the GCC-Asia oil and non-oil trade figure is approximately $200 billion. That figure is certain to grow as negotiations for free trade agreements are currently under way with China, India and Japan. Beyond the oil and trade dynamic is the human element, Sager added that approximately 70 percent of the GCCs labor force is made up of expatriates, who send home nearly $30 billion as remittances annually. Again, of the 12.5 million expatriates in the region, about 70 percent of them are Asians. Asia is also the hotbed of several conflicts and tension, involving India, Pakistan, China, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran all bearing the potential to cause instability in the continent, including the Gulf, Sager said. Delivering the keynote speech, the Asean secretary-general spoke about the experiences of Southeast Asian bloc and its potential relevance to the GCC, especially the relative importance of the groups interests and the national sovereignty of individual countries. Praising the GCC for its courage in moving forward with the plans for a single currency and common market, Yong stressed Chinas growing interest in developing trade with Asean and predicted American and European interest in the economic grouping. The official called for increased cooperation with the GCC countries in forums like the East Asia Summit. Emphasizing that Japan had increasingly sought closer ties with the region, first economically and then in the political and security matters, Kakizawa examined the development of the GCC-Japan ties in his address. "Japanese technology could help avoid degradation in environmental standards and that the GCC countries could reciprocate Japans large investments in the Gulf," Kakizawa said, adding that Japan was keen to sign a free trade agreement with the GCC. The first session discussed Afghanistans transition from Taliban rule to democracy, and its potential impact on the region. The participants emphasized the need for both the Afghan elites and world leaders to rise above narrow interests to ensure that the war-torn country becomes a stable and substantive democracy. Deliberating on the need for a new paradigm in the context of the rise of Asia and the formation of new Asian political and security arrangements, the experts noted the importance of dealing with Asia not as one monolithic entity. It should be dealt as a set of different regional blocs, each needing a separate understanding, they said. "The key is to view it from a Gulf perspective, as opposed to a Western one, and handled collectively by the Gulf as part of a broader Arab framework." Focusing on the situation in South Asia, the participants discussed the structural and political factors for conflicts in the region, as well as the emerging trends in bilateral and multilateral relations. Particular attention was paid to the complexity, costs and strategic dimensions of the conflict between India and Pakistan. The second session of the workshop dealt with security issues and included presentations on the relevance of Asean and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as models for the GCC. The participants noted commonalities between the Southeast Asian and Gulf groupings, ranging from their responses to regional threats to their reliance on the US for security, adding that they could learn from each other and interact more, for instance, by sharing ideas of non-intervention. However, the CIS was dismissed as a model for the GCC, as it had failed to live up to its promise, having been unable to develop any real regulatory systems, and not having successfully launched even a single project since its formation. Intra-CIS ties were described as having drastically diminished since the blocs formation. The participants reached different conclusions about whether weak states could create strong institutions, and about the effects of homogeneity of membership of groupings. They also discussed the issue of GCC expansion, with the EU as a model. The third session focused on nuclear weapons and how it had diverted attention from conventional weapons, which have actually caused more destruction. It was also pointed out that the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was too US-centric, whereas regional regimes were required to slow down the spread of nuclear weapons at a global level. It was also noted that the 9/11 attacks shifted the focus to specific states and their weapons programs, and that other types of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) were now lumped together in one category with nuclear weapons. Explaining that that there was no monolithic terrorist threat, the participants said that a national context was important in analyzing terrorist activities. "Poverty, weak regimes, poor regional integration and bad regional neighborhoods" were identified as the causes for terrorist attacks. A clear exit strategy for American troops in Iraq and a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict were mentioned as strategies to reduce terrorism. Speakers at the session also noted that the inability to disarm Israel was not an excuse for regional states to develop nuclear weapons, and spoke about the conditions necessary for the establishment of a WMD-free zone in the Gulf. Issues such as the use of terrorism as a poor mans weapon, the difference between terrorism and resistance, Al Qaedas uniqueness as a non-state-sponsored entity and the degeneration of terrorism to criminality while serving as a political cause were discussed. On economic issues, participants discussed Indias relations with the Gulf and noted the importance of developing the regions human resources. It was recommended that intra-Asia ties be emancipated from its current buyer-seller relationship. The experts talked about the need for a cooperative relationship between Asian countries for energy as opposed to a rush for oil fields, and advocated greater Indian cooperation with GCC countries in the fields of information technology, healthcare and outsourcing. The use of oil money in the development of the economies of the GCC countries and the increase in Japanese business in the region were discussed. It was pointed that an increasing share of GCC trade was with Asia and that businesses in new fields had started to rely on one another. Other salient issues raised during the session included the need to take a non-state approach, including building supranational ties and relations between non-government organizations, and the need to shift production chains and transfer technology to the GCC countries. Delving into energy issues, participants discussed Japans dealings with the Middle East, with particular attention to the causes and consequences of the failure of the Arabian Oil Company to renew its contract with Saudi Arabia. The delegates also examined the massive potential for natural gas in Asia and highlighted Qatars anticipated role in the gas markets. The workshop concluded with an open discussion that raised issues such as the lack of apparent Asian concern about internal conditions in the GCC countries despite the presence of a large number of Asian expatriates; and a call by the GRC chairman for an expansion of GCC-Asian institutions. It was also announced that the GRC annual workshop in 2007 will focus on the theme "Gulf security -- views and options". 2006 Al Bawaba (www.albawaba.com) |