TMCnet News

Exit polls: Humala wins plurality, runoff to be held
[April 09, 2006]

Exit polls: Humala wins plurality, runoff to be held


(EFE Ingles Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)Lima, Apr 9 (EFE).- Four exit polls gave Peruvian nationalist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala a victory - albeit with only a plurality - in Sunday's vote, a circumstance that will require a runoff election to be held with an as yet undetermined rival.



The survey firm Apoyo's exit poll found that Humala had obtained 29.6 percent of the votes, conservative Lourdes Flores 24.5 percent, and former President Alan Garcia 24.2 percent.

The CPI market research firm gave Humala 30.1 percent, Flores 25.8 percent and Garcia 24 percent.


Datum Internacional's exit polling activities revealed that Humala has garnered 29.2 percent of the vote to Garcia's 24.4 percent and Flores' 24.1 percent.

And the POP public opinion firm accorded 30 percent to Humala and 25 percent to each of his two main rivals.

The surveys have a margin of error of between 3 and 4 percent, according to the polling firms.

Meanwhile, a Humala spokesman "humbly" thanked the Peruvian people for their confidence after learning of the exit poll results.

Eduardo Gariboto told journalists that "we accept the victory with humility and thank the people who have supported a nationalist proposal."

According to Peruvian election law, if no candidate receives an absolute majority, a runoff is mandated between the two top vote-getters.

"We'll begin the second round tomorrow, if there is to be one," Gariboto said.

The first official results of the election are scheduled to be released at 8 p.m. (0100 GMT on Monday).

Several explosions in the central Andean province of Huanuco rattled the public there, but caused no reported injuries during voting for the head of Congress, the ONPE election office said.

ONPE official Miguel Abanto told journalists that his colleagues in the area told him that there were explosions in the districts of Araguai and Illata but "at no time was the election - or any ONPE personnel - endangered" by the incidents, which he called "isolated."

Humala, meanwhile, complained that he was the victim of a "fascist act ... (and an) organized ambush" by his political rivals, who "marred the election" when an anti-Humala crowd gathered at the Ricardo Palma University, where he showed up to cast his ballot.

During more than two hours of attacks, insults and destruction by the crowd - although no injuries were reported - Humala had to be protected by international observers monitoring the vote and finally escorted from the scene by security forces.

In a communique that he read later to the press, Humala said that the incident was "shameful" and added that it was the "culmination of a dirty war campaign ... (that ended) with violence."

He blamed Garcia, Flores and President Alejandro Toledo for the incident, saying that "democracy has been kidnapped and is in the hands of a minority who don't want to lose their privileges."

Peru held its general elections on Sunday, with all eyes on the nationalist presidential candidate who went from being a political unknown less than a year ago to frontrunner in several recent polls.

The presidential race features 20 candidates, while more than 2,500 candidates from 23 parties are vying for 120 seats in Congress that are up for grabs.

The three leading presidential candidates are Humala, the candidate of the Peruvian Nationalist Party (UPP), Flores, of the National Unity party, and Garcia, the leader of the American Populist Revolutionary Party (APRA).

The attention of the media and public, however, has been focused on Humala throughout the campaign.

Observers say that Humala's strong showing in the public opinion polls was the result of generalized deep disappointment with the performance in government of mainstream politicians and parties in Peru, where the majority of the population has not shared in the economic gains made in recent years.

Many Peruvians and some political analysts compare Humala's quick rise to that of Alberto Fujimori 16 years ago.

Fujimori, who is in jail in Chile while the courts weigh an extradition request by Peru on 10 counts of corruption and two of human rights violations, defeated, to everyone's surprise, famous writer Mario Vargas Llosa at the polls in the 1990 presidential election.

The main difference, though, is that Humala was already well known in Peru before launching his candidacy, due to his military background - which included a failed coup attempt against Fujimori - and for belonging to a politically controversial family that has cast a shadow on his campaign.

Humala led a failed coup with his brother, Antauro, on Oct. 29, 2000, against Fujimori, shortly before the president, hounded by corruption scandals, fled to Japan.

After being granted amnesty in 2001, Ollanta Humala was sent as a military attache to France and South Korea.

While in South Korea, he began building the political machine that he hoped would take him to the presidency.

Antauro, however, staged another unsuccessful coup on Jan. 1, 2005, against current President Alejandro Toledo in the Andean city of Andahuaylas that ended up with him being jailed after four police officers died in the unsuccessful uprising.

Humala has recently appeared to be distancing himself somewhat from the UPP, which in the past has called for setting up a government along the lines of the Inca empire, abolishing all forms of currency, nationalizing foreign companies, legalizing all coca farming and jailing homosexuals, among other policies.

His father, Isaac, founded the Etnocacerista movement, a group that takes its name from field marshall and former President Andres Avelino Caceres, a hero of Peru's losing 1879-1883 War of the Pacific against Chile.

The movement fosters xenophobia against Chile, the United States and Israel as part of a platform that also includes indigenous demands and Inca myths.

Humala joined the army in 1980 and had risen to the rank of captain by the time of his assignment, in 1991, to a forward base in a jungle region where the government had declared a state of emergency to battle the Maoist-inspired Shining Path rebels.

During his campaign, Humala has had to defend himself against allegations, which are being investigated by the Attorney General's Office, that he committed human rights violations when he commanded a military base in the jungle region of Madre Mia.

Humala was commander of the Madre Mia military base from 1992 to 1993, when the Maoist Shining Path insurgency had escalated its attacks. He also took part in Peru's brief 1995 border war with Ecuador.

The allegations, however, have not prevented him from garnering support in Peru for his proposals.

They include vows to bring about "the transformation of the country" via a constitutional assembly that would draft a new charter to replace the Peruvian Constitution approved in 1993 during Fujimori's administration.

The established parties all view a possible victory by Humala with trepidation, believing that Peru could end up with an authoritarian system patterned after the Venezuela of Hugo Chavez, another former army colonel and failed coup plotter who was first elected in late 1998 on a platform that decried the corruption and inefficacy of traditional parties and politicians.

The one sure thing is that Humala's nationalist rhetoric has boosted his standing at the national level and especially in the Andean region of the country, where poverty and marginalization plague the mostly Indian population.

About half of Peru's population of 26 million is Amerindian.

More than 16.4 million Peruvians are eligible to vote in Sunday's election, including, for the first time, active military and police personnel, although many members of the security forces will be on duty and unable to cast ballots.

Some 94,000 police officers and 70,000 soldiers were deployed across the Andean nation to provide security at polling places, especially in areas where drug traffickers and remnants of the Shining Path guerrilla group operate.

International observers, most of them from the Organization of American States, are monitoring the elections.

wat/hv-bp

[ Back To TMCnet.com's Homepage ]