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Nepal politics: Election fiasco puts king in check(EIU Viewswire Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Last October Nepal's king, who had seized power by disbanding the elected government earlier in the year, announced that local elections would be held on February 8th, claiming they would be the first step towards the restoration of democracy. But with nearly all Nepal's major political parties boycotting the polls and Maoist rebels determined to disrupt them, it never seemed likely that they would produce a credible result. And so it has proved: a dearth of candidates and an embarrassingly low turnout, amid a general strike that brought the nation to a standstill, have discredited the king's attempt to legitimise his seizure of power. It will be difficult for King Gyanendra to persuade anyone that the results of the elections are credible. Owing to intimidation by the Maoists and the boycott by the seven parties (which together represented over 90% of the disbanded parliament), more than half of the 4,000-plus local government posts at stake had no candidates. In 22 of the 58 municipalities elections were unnecessary, as there were no opposing candidates. The voting itself was not monitored by any independent agency and was marred by violence. A four-day general strike, enforced by the Maoists, hindered transport to and from polling stations. Turnout, according to the election commission, was under 20% nationwide and under 15% in the capital, Kathmandu, which is generally regarded as the part of the country least susceptible to Maoist intimidation. Despite the king's pronouncements, his actions in the months leading up to the polls suggested that the re-establishment of parliamentary democracy is not high on his list of priorities. As well as imprisoning politicians and activists of various stripes, the king has reinforced state controls on the media and has replaced democrats in positions of authority with pro-monarchist civil servantsmany of whom, incidentally, opposed the 1990 popular democratic movement that forced his brother Birendra, then king, to abandon the panchayat (appointed assembly) system of government. The goal of the local polls is presumably to reinforce the power of the king's allies ahead of a general election which he has said will be held by April 2007. With this in mind it seems unlikely that he will acknowledge as valid criticism of the election process. A reconciliation between the crown and the political parties or the Maoists also seems unlikely. Relations between the palace and parties have deteriorated significantly since last November, when the parties reached an understanding with the Maoist insurgents to oppose the king's rule. This gave the king the excuse to crack down on opposition politicians, for siding with the leaders of an insurgency that has claimed more than 13,000 lives in the last ten years. The end of the Maoists' unilateral ceasefire in January reinforced the view of royal supporters that the "understanding" was a cover for the rebels' resumption of criminal activities (which have included widespread abductions, threats and extortion in the areas under their control). Despite the end of the ceasefire the Maoists, for their part, are showing signs that they are prepared to compromise to find a political solution. Their original demand was for the violent overthrow of the monarchy and the establishment of a communist republic. The understanding with the political parties last year, however, identified a common goal of electing a constituent assembly to redraft the constitutionalthough the role of the monarchy was left undefined. In an interview with India's The Hindu newspaper on February 8th the Maoists' leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal (alias Comrade Prachanda), went as far as to say that the rebels were prepared to accept a limited monarchy if the people were in favour of one. (The previous day, however, he had said that peace and democracy were achievable only after a "decisive struggle" to topple Nepal's "feudalistic autocratic regime".) The election fiasco might make the king think twice about proceeding with his own "roadmap to democracy", but there are few signs that he will be more inclined to negotiate with the parties or the Maoists. Importantly, the king can still count on the support of the Royal Nepalese Army, raising the prospect of a military role in government should its influence become the determining factor in preserving royal rule. The army's support might falter if the king is unable to provide it with sufficient resources to combat the Maoist threat. International opposition has been growing since he seized power: India, the US and the UK, his erstwhile allies, each imposed an embargo on the shipment of lethal weapons to Nepal last year. The municipal elections have not improved his standing. The US State Department called them "a hollow attempt to legitimise power" and noted that the king's suppression of political and civil freedoms, the absence of monitors and "a clear lack of support" for the polls undermined their credibility. Even China, which promised last October to provide "all possible military support" against the Maoist threat (presumably seeking to extend its influence in a strategically important buffer state between Tibet and India), said last month that all parties in the conflict should seek to narrow their differences through dialogue. With China's help the king might be able to hold off the combined opposition of Maoists and political parties for some time; without it his isolation at home and internationally might force him to modify his manifestly unpopular strategy for extending the crown's power. SOURCE: ViewsWire Asia |