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PRESS CONFERENCE WITH FEDERAL SPACE AGENCY HEAD ANATOLY PERMINOV ITAR TASS, 11:00, DECEMBER 27, 2005(Federal News Service (Russia)) Moderator: Welcome to ITAR-TASS and I wish you all the best in the new year. I am glad to introduce our speaker today, the head of the Federal Space Agency Anatoly Nikolayevich Perminov. Thank you for coming. I suggest the usual format. First, Anatoly Nikolayevich will tell you what he will see fit to tell you and then we will go into questions and answers. Perminov: Before I forget, I would like to wish you a happy New Year and to thank you very good and timely coverage of the space situation on the ground and above the territory of Russia. I will just speak for 7-10 minutes. We have been working to achieve three main strategic objectives: to make the use of outer space effective for the solution of the tasks facing Russia, second, broadening international cooperation and compliance with our international obligations and third, strengthening and developing the space potential. These three strategic objectives for 2005 are subdivided into a multitude of tactical objectives which will surely be touched upon during the questions and answers period. In terms of the main documents on which we have worked we have seen the competition of the federal space program for 2001-2005, the GLONASS federal targeted program for 2002-2011 and, most importantly, we worked on the new federal space program until the year 2015. What have been the accomplishments and setbacks? The main tactical task, of course, was to restore the group of civilian satellites in orbit. This year we made 24 launches of carrier rockets. Last year there were 23. So, this year we launched one than last year. And as I reported to you, we finally regained first place in the world in terms of the number of launches. While the Americans made 16 launches last year, this year they made 12. This is not a case one-upmanship, but we do keep track of who is in the first place in the world and who is in the second place. At present we have made 24 launches and the Americans, 12. How many satellites have we launched? We launched 20 purely Russian satellites and the remaining ones are international under different programs. The United States launched 12, Europe 5, China 5, Japan 2 and so on. If you are interested in space launching sites, I can tell you briefly that if you take the distribution of launches among countries, Russia accounts for 45.3 percent of all launches in the world, the United States accounts for 22.6 percent and Europe is in third place with 9.4 percent. In terms of commercial launches Russia accounts for 45 percent, the US for 5 percent, Europe for 25 percent, the international Sea Launch project accounts for 20 percent and China for 5 percent. We are in first place as regards the performance of launching sites. Baikonur accounts for 32.1 percent of all launches. Second and third places are shared by Vandenberg and Canaveral 11.3 percent each. In terms of carrier rockets, Soyuz accounts for 18.9 percent, Proton for 11.3 percent and Atlas for 6.1 percent, Sea Launch accounts for 9.4 percent. So, Sea Launch is in third place. As you see, the main load was borne by Soyuz. We had three abortive launches: Molnia from Plesetsk, Molnia-3K communications satellite; then CryoSat, an international launch; and the Solar Sail was launched from a submarine in the Barents Sea. As for the state of the group of satellites in orbit, we have exerted every effort, together with the Defense Ministry, to meet the target set under the GLONASS program. You know that the Defense Minister yesterday delivered a report to the President and it contained some good news for us because the President has given instructions to us to work out proposals on adjusting the GLONASS federal targeted program and to restore the group of navigation satellites within the shortest time possible. We are already fulfilling that task. As regards the assets for putting satellites in orbit, in spite of the lag in financing over the past years, this year I am happy to report to you that all the programs were funded 100 percent. It is the first year when the government fully met its commitment to finance federal space programs. And in addition, the government has approved the federal targeted program for the development of Russian space launching sites. That is what I thought I would tell you for starters. For the rest, I would prefer to answer your questions. Moderator: Thank you. I am opening it up for questions. Q: When is Roskosmos going to announce a tender for the development of the Kliper and who will be the bidders? Perminov: The tender for the development of the Clipper has already been announced. It will take place in January, on January 18. There are three bidding enterprises. It will be a closed tender. But I can name the enterprises: RKK Energia, the Khrunichev and NPO Molnia. And you will know the results of the tender. Q: RIA Novosti. The Defense Minister reported to the President yesterday and please correct me if I am wrong: he said that under the GLONASS program we have 19 satellites in orbit now. But according to other data, after the successful launch of three GLONASS satellites there are now 17 satellites. So, my first question is, what is the true number of satellites now in orbit? And the second and important question. The President has set the target of speeding up the launch of GLONASS satellites, so this would be done earlier than planned. Can we do this? Are there capabilities for that? What about financing? Perminov: The defense minister did not make any mistake. We have 17 satellites now. Your information is right. As for the figure, 19, we have two satellites which used to be regarded as spacecraft in the past. They are laser reflectors. They are still functioning in the orbit and they have been used for the intended purposes. We just do not regard them as spacecraft that are part of the satellite group for the GLONASS system. So, 17 spacecraft can really work today. As for deadlines, yesterday and today I held a number of meetings with the participation of the head of the enterprise, Albert Kozlov, who said it is quite possible to have this done earlier, if the program is somewhat modified in terms of financing. So, by January 15 we will have all proposals prepared and reported to the president. Q: Rosoboronexport is known to have a division dealing with the marketing of launch services. In what way have you interacted with them? In what way have you divided markets? Second, what are the decisions related to Egypt? Perminov: We have signed a contract with Rosoboronexport. It was signed during the MAKS exhibition and it outlines procedures, including those related to the problems you have touched upon. We do not have any problems in our relationships. On the contrary, our interaction has been complementary. The thing is that Rosoboronexport has a ramified network of representative offices in all countries. We have agreed that we will use their opportunities, their specialists for promoting space-related services. This lets us reduce costs and this lets them work. Really, there are some issues related to the fact that we lose some contracts as they are made via Rosoboronexport, but this is the Russian state anyway. So, even if we get orders via them, our enterprises perform those orders. As for your second question, the Egyptian E-Star spacecraft, a tender has been announced for that system in Egypt and we have energetically participated. Who wins the tender is hard to tell at the moment. I just know that the Egyptian side wants the cost of the project to be reduced as much as possible. The second condition is that opportunities should be created for the assembly of this kind of spacecraft in Egypt. That is, they want creating an assembly base in Egypt. How much this may cost is a commercial secret. I know the figures. We are now dealing with those problems. If we manage to reduce costs so they would be lower than those offered by others, we may benefit. Competition will decide. Q: Who are the other bidders? Perminov: A number of firms. Russia is represented by RKK Energia. Q: Are there any foreign firms? Perminov: Yes. Q: Could you name them? Perminov: Naturally, you know such a firm as Alcatel. I think it has huge advantages in that sphere, because it has a good background of creating assembly facilities in other countries. But we also have such capabilities. So, I repeat, the Egyptian side will likely proceed from costs first and foremost. It is hard to predict anything at the moment. Q: You have mentioned that this year was not too favorable. There were three unsuccessful launches, three breakdowns, and the industry is to blame for them, because the hardware was faulty. But there was also an incident with the Mozhayets-5. There were problems with the Demonstrator. Actually, the number of failures has been unprecedented this year. What is the Federal Space Agency going to do, given that neither the Tsiklon-2 was launched nor the Strela? Other spacecraft that have not been launched include the long- awaited DK-1, the Meridian. The launches of the Cosat and Kompas-2 have been delayed. Let alone that for three years, which is unprecedented, the group of early warning spacecraft has not received any new hardware. There may be some problems in that sphere. Thank you. Perminov: We know your negative attitude to Roskosmos. So, let me explain why those breakdowns happened. I would not lay the blame on the manufacturing sector, because some launches were not properly prepared. Unfortunately, as for the breakdown of the CryoSat at Plesetsk, it looked like it was due to human errors, and information was conveyed to the press. Flight orders were improperly computed in interaction between Khrunichev and the Kharkov-based Khartron. So, measures have been taken. And that was not due to any faults in the hardware. There were also irregularities in the Solar Sail launch. Those problems have not been unique. This has constantly recurred. We started analyzing this and we have asked our colleagues in the European Space Agency not to rely on old rockets whose production has long been discontinued and which have been in storage for many years, those removed from submarines, of the Volna type. I do not think that it is worth using systems of that type for space launches. They are not intended for that. For example, the United States has never done anything of the kind. Perhaps, they are right. There is a conflict between attempts to reduce costs and the need to carry out launches and conduct tests. So, this can often result in failures. As for yet another breakdown, manufacturers really share the blame. Without pressing the point too hard, I must say that military representatives are present at enterprises and it is their duty to monitor all the military products that are intended for the Defense Ministry. And I think the space forces have drawn conclusion. I think it won't happen again. As regards the replenishment of orbital groups in every department, I have already said that we have done all that could be done at present. And as regards remote Earth sensing, of course, that group of satellites needs to be replenished. We are sure that next year we will launch Resurs-DK, the joint Belka space asset, a Russian-Byelorussian project. The monitor is gradually beginning to work in panchromatic mode, there is hope that it will work. So, we already have three remote sensing satellites in orbit. Q: Alexei Rashevsky, Russia today TV channel. What are your plans for next year, and especially international projects? Perminov: Speaking about international projects the prime project is manned space flights and joint work on the ISS. That work proceeds according to plan. The plans for 2006 have been made. Just three days ago we signed an agreement with NASA regarding the structure of our relations next year with reference to concrete launches, workplaces, cargo delivery, cargo removal and so on -- that is a breakthrough. We have solved all the issues with NASA for next year regarding the number of proposed launches of Shuttles to the ISS and further work in this area with five states. We hope that in the first six months of 2006 we will reach a comprehensive agreement with NASA on ISS until the year 2011. That's in the field of manned flights. But we also have extensive cooperation with the European Space Agency in four main areas. This year there was a serious ministerial-level conference of the European Space Agency -- 18 states -- that took fundamental decisions on four areas, and these include some in Russia's favor. The only thing is that no final decision has been taken on the Clipper, but no negative decision has been taken either. So, immediately after the conference the head of the European Space Agency Jacques Dordain arrived here with his experts, reported the results of the conference and we agreed the entire plan for 2006 and the following years in every area. As for Russian territory, Roskosmos, the plans consist in fulfilling the federal space program. In the first year, 2006 and until 2015, fulfilling the GLONASS targeted program updated in accordance with the President's directive. We will take part in the federal targeted program for the development of Russian space launching sites in every area. The emphasis will be on the replenishment of the orbital group, and modernization of all types of space assets. The second area is modernization of carrier rockets and their improvement. But also the creation of new ones such as Angara for international projects Baiterek for ground launches, Zenit and so on. And, as has rightly been said here, it is necessary to have a robust to the system of replenishing the remote sensing satellite group. These are the main areas. Q: I would like to have a clarification regarding the agreements with the Americans. Will the mutual settlements be under a barter scheme or in terms of energy or cash? I do not expect you to give me the sum, but what has been the decision regarding payment for launches? Perminov: Starting from this year we have given up barter in favor of cash. All the agreements have been signed: Americans have one workplace on every spaceship; delivery of cargoes will also be paid for in cash; removal of cargoes from the ISS will also be for cash. And the same goes for all the other issues. All these contracts have already been signed. Q: Could you indicate the approximate sum? Perminov: No, we too have our commercial secrets. Q: The newspaper Gudok. I would like to ask you how many launches are scheduled for 2006? And looking forward a bit. The Americans, the Chinese are planning at least to start developing the Moon in the coming decade. What are we doing in this area? Perminov: I don't have the data on the number of launches. The program is still in the works. And I am afraid I can't give you the exact figure. Q: At least it is not less? Perminov: Of course, not. And for the second area, of course, the Moon is a very attractive program. Our federal space program does not envisage manned flights to the Moon. At present only the United States have such a plan and even that have not been finally announced. All the other countries would like to do Moon programs: Europe, China, India. But to date only the United States plan is planning manned flights. China so far has been using unmanned probes, the European Space Agency will initially also use unmanned probes. The Indian Space Agency has indicated that it plans Moon exploration, but also with unmanned probes. We don't have specific manned exploration projects and we don't plan to land our cosmonauts on the Moon, this is not in our federal space programs. Q: I would like to react to your remark about dislike, you shouldn't have been saying that. Perminov: We will be able to disclose all this. Q: I would like to ask you whether the funding that the GLONASS program did not receive in the previous years since it started will be made available or will that money be disbursed pursuant to the President's directive? Perminov: There is no question about some kind of back pay. There is certainly a need for an effective modernization of the program because, to look at technical details, we face a serious transition to Uragan-K space vehicles, and these are totally new vehicles which have new elements with higher performance characteristics. While today one Proton carrier launches three spacecraft, plans call for reducing the weight, improving quality, and we intend to launch up to six spacecraft of that type with one launcher. Besides, service life is to be extended. While we now have ten years for GLONASS-M, plans call for extending that to 15 years. This transition was planned for a period of 2007 and 2008. But now that new deadlines have been set, it is very likely that it will be necessary to complete work as soon as possible and increase the number of spacecraft to 18, GLONASS-M type, and the deadlines will now have to be reduced with GLONASS-K to be used and 24 satellites of that type to be put into the orbit by 2008. This will require additional funding and we are going to make relevant proposals. Q: I have a question related to the social sphere. You are in charge of industrial aspects, but people are involved anyway. First, space launch sites. Baikonur has marked its anniversary. What can you say about the housing problem there? Clearly, Popovkin and Ivanov deal with that, but Roskosmos is in charge of redistribution of social and human resources. What about Svobodny? Has the final decision on its liquidation been made? What is the situation with social issues at Khrunichev, Energia? Perminov: As for the Baikonur cosmodrome, we have decided with the Defense Ministry to have all facilities there handed over gradually to Roskosmos. This should be done stage by stage, rather than overnight, which could be fraught with social protests. We are planning to complete this handover by the end of 2007. This will let the Defense Ministry calmly deal with housing problems. They have dealt with that. In particular, the space troops ommander has dealt with that problem. He visits the launch site. He works there. I know that at the highest level a decision has been made to provide about 200, in the near future -- housing certificates have been issued. As you know, in line with the president's instructions, their value will now be totally different. The housing problem is no longer as grave at Baikonur as it used to be, as far as I know. As for the handover procedures, everything has been done properly. By the way, the latest launch was a joint launch accomplished with the space troops. At their request, we did that together. Even though we were to accomplish that ourselves, that concerned the GLONASS project. As for Svobodny, the launch site belongs to the Defense Ministry. Our goal is accomplishing two commercial launches there. So, we have agreed, and Sergei Ivanov has publicly stated that the Defense Ministry will give us this opportunity. Those launches will be accomplished in the coming two years. That is, those units dealing with that will be deployed there. As far as I know, a metering facility will stay there. Civilian infrastructure is being formed, which Minister Yakovlev has discussed with the governor. So, as this will be done gradually, over several years, there will be no outbreaks there. As for the total output of enterprises, I do not have concrete figures here, but I know that the sector has performed well enough and we are approaching the yearend confidently. The results are mostly positive. The aerospace industry's output is 12.7 percent up from last year. No other sector, except the oil and gas sector, has posted any similar results. The sector's growth rate is 2.5 times higher than Russia's average. Naturally, as the sector tends to stabilize, the social status of its employees tends to improve. True, we have some problem enterprises whose financial and economic state leaves much to be desired. But we have dealt with those problems while proceeding from existing legislation. A special meeting chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov discussed this problem recently, and it was decided that strategic enterprises' bankruptcy should be avoided. Relevant decisions have been made and deadlines have been fixed for the development of relevant programs. Serious decisions will be made in that sphere. Q: You have spoken about plans to increase the number of Soyuz and Progress spacecraft in the interests of our cosmonauts and foreign astronauts and space tourists. Will this happen next year? Astronauts from which countries are preparing for space flights now? Perminov: That's a good question, yet it is not easy to answer this. In the past, we wanted, we asked for orders, but a moment has come now when we have to cope with the orders we have received. We have to manufacture a backup spacecraft for the ISS as soon as possible. Naturally, this has to be done as agreed with the United States. Plus a waiting list has formed of people, so called tourists, who would like to fly, including under international contracts. And not only as tourists, but also under international obligations and requests from various countries. This prompted the need, as you have rightly pointed out, to urgently build Soyuz, manned Soyuz rockets. But every manned Soyuz, since it is extra, leads to a Progress. We have already been set such a task, which falls mainly on RKK Energia. And it is currently working on a plan to increase production volume and to hire new specialists in this area in order to create new jobs. On the positive side, of course, it means additional funding which will give a fillip to enterprises, most notably RKK Energia. According to unofficial data, for the first time in many, many years that enterprise will not be in the red at the end of the year. The first three-quarters were not much different from what they usually were, but I promise that in the fourth quarter it will report surplus. The cost of the shares of that enterprise has increased by 2.8 times. At present it is indisputably the leader in the aerospace industry. That is a very good sign. Q: Interfax. You have said that we have moved into the first place in terms of launches and we are launching satellites, but I think our budget is 20 times less than that in the US. Perhaps, it makes sense to raise the issue of increased funding from the budget? It is increasing anyway, but perhaps, not fast enough. That's one question. And my other question is a follow up to the GLONASS topic. What can one look forward to? Will we manage to launch all the 24 satellites before 2008? Perminov: Yes, the Roskosmos budget is indeed 30 times less than in the US, but the US has a number of serious programs under way which are much costlier than ours. Take the Shuttles, for the example. They have not left the scene. On the contrary, it has been confirmed that their launches are necessary, at least the NASA head has officially confirmed the figure 18. Every launch costs half a billion dollars. So, whether they like it or not, such financing is indispensable for them. I repeat, we can no longer engage in competition. It is impossible to compete, given the current level of financing. We are lagging behind in many spheres such as unmanned spacecraft, interplanetary research, exploration of other planets. Nothing can be done about it. Besides, average wages of those working in the aerospace sector are substantially lower than those of NASA specialists, for example. As for the second question, the possibility of increasing the group to 24 spacecraft by 2008 or in 2008, I think it is hard to do this. We have to elaborate. I cannot tell you for certain that this will be accomplished. I repeat, we will consider all program related to the GLONASS project until January 15. Q: Unlike other sectors, the formation of holding companies has not started in the aerospace sector. Will this start next year? In your opinion, has the appointment of new general directors to virtually all key enterprises in the sector been justified? Perminov: Perhaps, you do not know the real situation. The government has approved a plan for the formation of integrated companies. We have acted strictly in line with those plans. If we fail to do something in line with the plans, they summon us to the Cabinet meetings and ask for explanations. True, we have been in no haste. During a special Cabinet meeting, I provided explanations. I said we wanted to analyze developments in other sectors, where many holding companies have been formed after which we would be able to decide. This process has been particularly active in the aircraft building sector. We are in no haste to form integrated companies. But we are not lagging behind the plan. As for the appointments, personnel reshuffles at a number of enterprises, they have yielded positive effects, and employees, workers and specialists have perceived them with understanding. At the moment, we have no worries about those enterprises, because they are led by specialists who know those enterprises, who can perform international commitments with no detriment to Russia's aerospace sector. We can see that the situation tends to improve at those enterprises. This is already the case at RKK Energia, at Energomash, our leading enterprises. This is also the case at Kosmash. Just several months have passed since new appointments at Khrunichev. Naturally, the situation cannot improve overnight, but positive changes are about to take place there. Moderator: questions? No questions. Thank you very much, Anatoly Nikolayevich. |