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What Next for Peace Operations? "PEACE OPERATIONS 2025"
COLOGNE, GERMANY, Dec 13, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) --
Will there still be any peace operations at all in 10 or 15 years'
time And who will fund them Who will send troops Will the world be
even more conflict-ridden than it already is And what role will UNO
and the UN Security Council be playing then
International peace operations have changed enormously in recent
decades. The tasks that have to be mastered by peace operations are
varied and new tasks are constantly being added; crisis interventions
are also becoming more complex. More and more collaborations and
partnerships are being formed between international organisations and
more players are participating in the decision-making.
"At present over 70 peace operations are in progress worldwide and
they are an essential tool of the international community for dealing
with conflicts and fragile states. In this respect, it is imperative
to reflect on future strategies for peace operations", points out
Z_punkt Scientific Director Dr. Karlheinz Steinmueller.
An international and interdisciplinary group of practitioners and
academics met up over a period of one-and-a-half years for a scenario
process on the future of international peace operations. In the
course of three workshops, in Berlin, Addis Ababa and New York, key
factors and megatrends were identified and they were used as a basis
for developing four plausible and consistent scenarios. The
high-calibre experts were unable to provide assured forecasts on
these issues, but during the process, chaired and supported by
Z_punkt, they were able to come up with theoretical possibilities, as
in the said scenarios. The scenarios and results are now published by
ZIF (Centre for International Peace Operations, entitled "Peace
Operations 2025".
The workshop participants especially focused on the interactions
between the key factors. Hence, for example, the very different local
effects of megatrends in less developed countries have to be taken
into consideration, such as the effects of rapid population growth on
a country's economy and ecology and the options for dealing with
extreme weather conditions and water shortages. Differing projections
were used as a basis for the variable drivers, i.e. the future
scenarios assume, for example, a favourable development of the global
economy on the one hand and also the opposite.
How do countries react when they are trying to juggle national
interests and global dependencies Are existing multilateral
relationships strengthened or do new regional structures develop
What effect will the shift in the balance of global economic and
political power have Will new powers such as China, India and Brazil
assimilate themselves into the existing structures of international
crisis management If so, what might the new structures be like
What role will the change of values in societies play in relation to
the acceptance of international peace operations And what effects
will fragile state structures, potential conflicts over resources and
the increase in organised crime, migration and refugee flows have
What political pressure can new media be expected to exert and what
potential do new technologies have -- are they a blessing or a
threat
What role will private sector-oriented security firms adopt in the
interaction of international crisis management
Z_punkt Senior Foresight Consultant and Project Manager Bjoern Theis
emphasises that "the special challenges in this project were the
multi-faceted interactions between social, technological, political,
economic and ecological factors as well as regional aspects that
influence the future of international peace operations. It is
especially with complex issues such as these that future research
demonstrates what it can accomplish: with the aid of its methods,
coupled with the interdisciplinary expertise of the international
workshop participants, complex interrelationships can become apparent
and be systemised, in order to facilitate strategic reflection on the
future."
The formulation of the four meaningful scenarios "Erratic Progress",
"National Interests", "Regional Diversity" and "Global Cooperation"
is consciously exaggerated in some cases, as the future scenarios are
not predictions, but are intended to stimulate creative reflection on
the future of international peace operations.
A summary of the scenarios can be found here:
http://www.z-punkt.de/peace_operations_2025_en.html
Download of the complete study:
http://www.z-punkt.de/downloads-en.html
Please send interview requests and sample copies of your articles
to:
communication@z-punkt.de
Link to the current Z_punkt newsletter:
http://www.z-punkt.de/newsletter-en.html
Z_punkt GmbH
The Foresight Company
Anna-Schneider-Steig 2
D-50678 Koln
phone +49 221 355 534 0
fax +49 221 355 534 22
www.z-punkt.de
Press Contact:
Claudia Mutzelfeldt
Corporate Communication
+49 221 355 534 24
communication@z_punkt.de
SOURCE: Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company
http://www.z-punkt.de/
mailto:communication@z_punkt.de
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