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U.S. mission amiss: What went wrong?(Dallas Morning News, The (KRT) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) LONDON _ The U.S.-led invasion launched three years ago to oust Iraq's dictatorship and eliminate weapons of mass destruction has instead pushed it to the brink of civil war and escalated Iraqi fears of imminent doom at the hands of radical militiamen. Though this was hardly the outcome President Bush envisioned when he ordered the March 19, 2003, assault on Iraq, senior U.S. officials now acknowledge that their plans have gone awry. Iraqi leaders and clerics are urging restraint as they warn that their nation, already split along sectarian and ethnic lines, is close to imploding. In a region already fraught with decades of war and religious friction, an Iraqi civil conflict has catastrophic implications, according to diplomats and academic researchers. Fears are mounting that fighting between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in Iraq could spark broader conflict around the region, and that Iraq's security void is tempting its neighbors to meddle militarily. The U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, underscored the dangers when he warned this month of the regional implications of civil war in Iraq, telling the Los Angeles Times, "We have opened the Pandora's box, and the question is, what is the way forward?" President Bush stated bluntly in a speech Tuesday, "I wish I could tell you that the violence is waning and that the road ahead will be smooth. It will not. There will be more tough fighting and more days of struggle, and we will see more images of chaos and carnage in the days and months to come." The State Department's coordinator for Iraq policy, James Jeffrey, expressed "full confidence" in the ability of Iraqi security forces to quell sectarian violence and added in statement Monday, "While civil war is a possibility, we do not believe that it is likely at this point." There appears little or nothing that the 157,000 foreign troops, mainly Americans, deployed in Iraq can do to stop the bloodshed, officials and analysts agree. "There can only be an Iraqi solution to this violence," Jeffrey stated. Iraqis point to a number of worrying signs that the nation's security forces are dividing along sectarian lines. In Baghdad and the southern city of Basra, Shiite-dominated police forces have engaged in mass roundups of Sunni Muslims, in some cases torturing suspects and holding them without trial in secret jails. Police last week uncovered a mass grave in a Shiite neighborhood of Baghdad filled with the bodies of 87 men who appeared to have been shot execution style. Sunni militants have stepped up a campaign of bombings and mortar attacks aimed at Shiite religious shrines and busy street markets. A Feb. 22 bomb attack that blew up one of Iraq's most sacred Shiite shrines helped spark the current wave of bloodshed that has led to more than 500 deaths so far. (EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM) "We hear mortars or bombs almost every night," said Osama Saadoun, a Baghdad resident contacted by telephone. "Nowadays, the conditions are so hard that you cannot leave your house. If you have work, you must leave early in the morning and just hope you get to the office alive. When you get there, you sit down at the desk and say, `Thanks to God.'" Saadoun, who described himself as non-Muslim and non-political, said there is a widespread feeling in Iraq that the American military presence is making matters worse, not better. "There used to be agreement, generally, that it (foreign presence) was good. Now, I think that 90 percent of the people think it's time for the Americans to go out. ... Personally, I think Iraq is at a very critical edge." (END OPTIONAL TRIM) Elements inside the country appear intent on pushing tensions to the breaking point, said Munir Chalabi, an Iraqi anti-war activist based in London. He said the primary instigators are Iraqi members of the radical Sunni Islamist group al-Qaida, as well as supporters of ousted former dictator Saddam Hussein. But he also blamed U.S. political decisions in Iraq that helped cause the nation's political system to develop primarily along sectarian and ethnic lines, rather than creating parties with a cross-sectarian membership. "The strategy concentrates on dividing the Iraqi people on ethnic and religious grounds. When you divide a society this way, you only increase the possibility of tensions and ... civil war," Chalabi said. (EDITORS: BEGIN OPTIONAL TRIM) His assertions are backed by poll results ahead of national parliamentary elections in December in which 34 percent of respondents listed religion as the single most important consideration influencing their vote _ double the percentage who listed a candidate's qualifications or a party's platform. The International Republican Institute conducted the poll. With democratic institutions already split, Chalabi said, the nation is ripe for provocation, and Sunni Islamists appear intent on exploiting it with bomb attacks on Shiite shrines. Their goal, he said, is a war that would wipe out the minority Shiite sect, which the regard as a heretic offshoot of mainstream Sunni Islam. According to various analysts, Iraq's Sunni militants are receiving support from radical backers in several neighboring countries, including Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Apparently to counter the Sunni threat, overwhelmingly Shiite Iran has been dispatching intelligence agents and other personnel to advise pro-Iranian Shiite militias in Iraq, according to British and U.S. government reports. (END OPTIONAL TRIM) Donald Rumsfeld, the secretary of Defense, charged on Tuesday that Iran was deliberately trying to destabilize Iraq by sending Revolutionary Guard troops and weapons across the border. "A `reasonable man' test would suggest that they're not freelancing, and they're not pilgrims," Rumsfeld said of the Iranian military infiltration. Thursday, Iran invited U.S. officials to meet for talks on stabilizing the situation in Iraq, a development the United States welcomed very cautiously. Turkey has threatened to intervene if Iraq's Kurdish minority takes advantage of civil strife to declare an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Polls in northern Iraq indicate an overwhelming majority of ethnic Kurds favor independence. Few viable options remain for the Bush administration, said David G. Newton, U.S. ambassador to Iraq from 1984 to 1988 and now adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington. After months of haggling since the December election, Iraqi leaders have yet to agree on a permanent government. Elected leaders "are becoming less and less relevant as the ... bloodlust and the revenge heats up," Newton said. Under such rapidly deteriorating circumstances, he added, "the pressure to cut and run will be overwhelming" for Bush. The final step to civil war would be the breakup of government security forces into opposing sectarian armies. It that happened, there would be little reason for U.S. troops to remain anyway. "The bottom line is to have some kind of government _ friendly or not _ that can minimally maintain order," Newton said. "You can forget about human rights, women's rights, democracy and all of that stuff. If you can't achieve that, then it is a victory for the radicals." ___ (c) 2006, The Dallas Morning News. Visit The Dallas Morning News on the World Wide Web at http://www.dallasnews.com/ Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services. For information on republishing this content, contact us at (800) 661-2511 (U.S.), (213) 237-4914 (worldwide), fax (213) 237-6515, or e-mail [email protected]. |