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Thaksin quits(Economist.com Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)Thailand's prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, will be replaced by his chief deputy, Chidchai Vanasathidya. The dramatic move comes a few days after Mr Thaksin won a strong but reduced mandate in a snap election that the main opposition boycotted. But political certainty is not yet assured CHOKING on his words, at times close to tears: when Thaksin Shinawatra went on television on Tuesday April 4th to announce his resignation as Thailand's prime minister, there was nothing left of the tough-guy image that the former policeman turned business tycoon had cultivated. Although Mr Thaksin won around 16m of the 28m votes cast in a snap election held two days earlier, this was down from 19m in the 2005 election, partly because of a lower turnout and partly because so many voters selected the no vote box on their ballot papers, as they were urged to do by the main opposition parties, which boycotted the election. Mr Thaksin said he was standing down to restore the unity of Thailand following months of street protests, organised by a group calling itself the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), demanding his resignation over alleged corruption and abuse of power. Although the protests have been peaceful and well policed, Thais have been living with the fear that they might turn bloody, as did the demonstrations in 1973 and 1992 that brought down military-led governments. Mr Thaksin explained that he did not want continuing strife to spoil the forthcoming celebrations for the 60th anniversary of King Bhumibol's accession to the throne, and urged all Thais to love each other. Earlier on Tuesday Mr Thaksin had visited the country's revered monarch at his summer palace on the Gulf of Thailand coast, to inform him of his decision. Until the day of his resignation announcement, PAD and the opposition parties had spurned various offers of reconciliation from Mr Thaksin, suspecting they were just ploys to help him cling to power. But on Tuesday they accepted his suggestion, made in a television interview the night before, to end the protests and the election boycott if he quit. In his resignation speech, he said he would remain as caretaker prime minister until parliament was convened, within 30 days. However, his ever-suspicious opponents objected to this, and by Wednesday he had announced that his chief deputy, Chidchai Vanasathidyaanother former policemanwould immediately take over as acting prime minister. Thailand's currency, the baht, has weathered the political storm rather well. But its stockmarket has stalled lately (though it has done well since Mr Thaksin first took over, in 2001) and forecasts for this year's economic growth have been cut from around 5% to perhaps 4%. Local and foreign investors are said to have put their plans on hold pending the resolution of the crisis. The government's planned spending on infrastructure megaprojects, including better public transport, has also been frozen, as have its talks with America on a proposed free-trade agreement. In a ruling late last month, a senior court blocked Mr Thaksin's planned privatisation of the country's biggest electricity generator, declaring it unconstitutional. This was a further blow both to economic prospects and to Mr Thaksin, for whom privatisation has been a flagship policythough it demonstrates how his opponents exaggerated when they claimed the dictatorial prime minister had captured and corrupted all the country's independent institutions. By Wednesday, the Bangkok stockmarket had recovered to its best since January and the baht made gains, on hopes that the political crisis would be over quickly. But will it? Before parliament can convene, the electoral commission must re-run elections in 38 constituencies in which the sole candidate (from Mr Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai party) failed to get the one-fifth share of votes cast (including those no votes) that is required under electoral law; and in at least one other seat where the sole candidate was disqualified. The commission ruled this week that new candidates can register for these re-runs, though so far the opposition parties say they will not take part. Although Mr Thaksin is still promising that a further general election will be held in around 15 monthsafter constitutional reforms proposed by a neutral panel of worthies have been passed, as the opposition has demandedthe opposition parties still express doubts about legitimising an interim parliament in which Thai Rak Thai will hold almost all seats, while Mr Thaksin remains the party's leader. More rallies are likely. It is not clear yet if Mr Chidchai is anything more than a stopgap. As the minister responsible for security, he is partly culpable for the botched policing of the Muslim insurgency in Thailand's southern provinces, whose death toll continues to rise. So he may not be the best choice. Businesses and the financial markets would prefer someone like Somkid Jatusripitak, the commerce minister, who is a career technocrat with a business doctorate from an American university. In a television interview given the day before his resignation speech, Mr Thaksin named Mr Somkid, as well as Pokin Polakul, a former speaker of parliament's lower house, as possible successors. Even if the election re-runs produce a quorate parliament, the street protests die down and the opposition parties rediscover their sense of duty and rejoin the democratic process, Thailand may still not be out of the woods. Michael Nelson, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, explains that Mr Thaksin is the glue that holds together Thai Rak Thaia collection of disparate factions he assembled in the late 1990sand without him at the wheel, the party may fall apart. If, on the other hand, he remains visibly in the driving seat, the opposition and PAD may well decide that his successor as prime minister is a mere puppet, and start making trouble again. The same could be true if in the future Mr Thaksin seeks a comeback, hoping voters will have forgotten all the corruption allegations but will remember his strong policies on health and poverty reduction, and his noble sacrifice in stepping down to avoid further strife. Do his opponents, and the Bangkok elite that are their main supporters, expect to exercise a permanent veto over his return? They shouldn't. |