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Thailand politics: Thaksin agrees to step aside(EIU Viewswire Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Thailands prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has stepped down in favour of an ally, Chidchai Vanasatidya, and has announced he will not seek the premiership in the next parliament. Although the latter is a major concession, ostensibly aimed at promoting national reconciliation after a national election won by Thaksins Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party amid an opposition boycott, the move is unlikely to resolve Thailands political crisis. Two days after the country held a highly controversial general election, Thaksin stated in a live televised appearance on April 4th that he would not lead the government in the next parliament. The decision marked a clear reversal of his statement made the previous day, when he said that he had no reason to step down given his partys election victory. Official results have yet to be announced, but the TRT is expected to have won 60% of the vote. After initially declaring that he would remain the caretaker prime minister until a new leader was found, Thaksin announced on April 5th, that his close confidante, the deputy prime minister and justice minister, Chidchai Vanasatidya, would become the caretaker prime minister. The real reasons behind Thaksins decision remain unclear. As expected, his party managed to secure the majority of votes in the April 2nd election, but the TRT performed poorly in the capital, Bangkok, with the number of no votes surpassing those for TRT candidates in 27 of the capitals 36 constituencies. Thaksin was probably not expecting to record the sweeping mandate he received in the 2005 election, but the margin of victory in the recent snap election may have been worse than he had anticipated and convinced him of the need to step aside. It may have been that the revered monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, had some influence on Thaksins decision. Indeed, Thaksins statement on April 4th came shortly after his meeting with the king, and the TRT leader said that the decision was aimed at restoring unity in the country ahead of the 60th anniversary of the kings accession to the throne. The king rarely intervenes in politics, and despite repeated calls over the past month or so from Thaksins opponents for a royally-appointed interim government, the king avoided becoming embroiled in the political impasse. However, in a private meeting with Thaksin, the king may well have made his feelings clear. A cunning plan? It is also plausible that the process of events is part of Thaksins broad strategy to diffuse political tension while still maintaining a firm grip on power. Thaksin stood firm in the run up to the snap election, claiming that he would not bow to mob rule and wanted the people to follow the democratic process. Through the snap election he was seeking to renew his mandate to govern, and although securing fewer votes than in the 2005 election, the TRT still received the majority of votes. By stepping aside now, Thaksin can claim to be making a sacrifice for the national cause (he made a point of apologising to his 16m or so supporters). More significantly, he has now placed the onus on his opponents to follow suit. Prior to his decision not to take the premiership the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the group of non-governmental organisations that have been co-ordinating mass demonstrations against Thaksin, agreed to end their protests if Thaksin stood down. A PAD leader, Chamlong Srimuang, has claimed that Thaksins decision to step down marks a victory for the PAD and its supporters. Another PAD leader, Sondhi Limthongkul, who sparked anti-Thaksin sentiment in the capital in late 2005, however, is more sceptical, and probably rightly so. Although there is no doubt that the PADs anti-Thaksin rallies and the success of its no vote campaign had a direct influence on Thaksins decision to step aside, its victory is not complete. The main opposition Democrat Party is also not convinced, and announced on April 5th that it would not contest the outstanding by-elections, in 39 provinces, needed to achieve a full working parliament. (By-elections have to be held in constituencies where the winning candidate failed to win 20% of the vote.) The Democrats have said they will not contest any elections until there has been political reform. The focus of speculation has now turned to who will succeed Thaksin as prime minister. It appears unlikely that the temporary prime minister, Chadchai, will be elected leader of the TRT as he does not have a broad support base within the party. If he is elected, this would add to speculation that Thaksin is still pulling all the strings within the party as Chadchai's main claim to fame is that he is a trusted ally of Thaksin. The other two front-runners are Somkid Jatusripitak, who is one of Thaksins deputy prime ministers and is the current caretaker commerce minister, and Bhokin Bhalakula, the president of the previous parliament and one of Thaksin's most trusted legal advisors. Media reports quoting TRT sources indicate that Somkid is more popular with the partys members and executives, and his appointment would be welcomed by business leaders. However, despite being a close ally of Thaksin, it is possible that Somkid, who has not always seen eye to eye with Thaksin, would not be sufficiently pliant. Bhokin, on the other hand, has the credentials to play a more effective role in protecting Thaksins interests and is likely to be more amenable to Thaksins instructions. Still an unstable future Talk of Thaksins successor may be a little premature, however, as it remains unclear when parliament will convene, and when Thaksin will actually step down. The by-elections will be held on April 23rd. The Election Commission has stated that new candidates will be allowed to contest the by-elections, a move that could help to fill the seats (if there is more than one candidate, there is no constitutional requirement that the most popular candidate receive at least 20% of the vote). Now that the Democrat Party has said it will not run in the by-elections, it remains unlikely that the re-runs will be successful and that parliament will convene with all its 500 seats occupied within the timeframe permitted in the constitutionno later than 30 days after the election. Thaksins decision not to accept the post of prime minister in the next parliament may be the first step towards resolving the countrys political crisis, or at least partially breaking the stalemate between him and his opponents. However, there is no guarantee of a return to political stability in the near future. Even if parliament resumes and a new prime minister takes the helm, the TRT dominated lower house would have little legitimacy owing to the fact that other leading parties boycotted the election. A national government would probably have to be formed to oversee some kind of political reforms before making way for another election, this time contested by all parties. However, if Thaksin remains a leading force within the TRT, and his party is voted back into power, his opponents are unlikely to be satisfied, and that could mean a return to square one. SOURCE: ViewsWire Asia |