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Thailand politics: The king steps in(EIU Viewswire Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)COUNTRY BRIEFING FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT Thailand's monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, has outlined a possible way of cleaning up the country's political mess. In a rare public address on April 25th, the king criticised the recent elections, in which the ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party ran virtually unopposed, as undemocratic, and told senior judges from Thailand's highest courts to work together to find a way out of the situation. Rather than hold further by-electionswhich opposition parties would again be likely to boycottto avert a constitutional crisis, it now seems likely that the judges will annul the result of the April 2nd general election and begin the electoral process again. The king's moral authority in Thailand is such that his comments immediately drew agreement from the TRT and the three main opposition partiesthe Democrat Party (DP), Chart Thai and Mahachonthat they would stand by the judges' decision if they annulled the April 2nd election result and called for a fresh vote. Pointedly, the king censured the opposition parties for calling on him to intervene to appoint an interim prime minister to oversee political reform, claiming that this would be "the kind of administration that disregards democratic rule". Instead, the chief justices of the Supreme Court, Constitutional Court and Supreme Administrative Court (which rules on the legality of government actions) are due to consult junior justices in their courts and then convene on April 28th to determine how to proceed. Consultation between the high courts is likely to make the judges' ruling more politically acceptable to the opposition, which has argued that the TRT government under the former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has filled independent bodies with its supporters, undermining the system of checks and balances to executive power. Whereas the Constitutional Court is filled with political appointees, the Supreme and Administrative Courts are run by qualified judges. However the situation is to be resolved, the timeframe for averting a constitutional crisis is short. According to the 1997 constitution, the House of Representatives (the lower house) must convene with all of its 500 members within 30 days of a general electionin this case by May 2nd. But the opposition boycott contributed to a number of failed constituency elections, in which TRT candidates running uncontested failed to meet the constitutional requirement that they receive the support of at least 20% of the eligible electorate list. A round of by-elections for 40 constituencies was held on April 23rd, but TRT candidates were again obliged to run unopposed in certain constituencies, meaning 13 seats stayed unfilled. The Election Commission (EC) has said it will proceed with a third round of elections for these seats on April 29th despite the king's proposals, although it seems unlikely that this will make any difference as opposition parties are again likely to refuse to participate. The leader of the DP, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has already said that if another election is held, his party will participate, while Chart Thai has said it is suspending all political actions pending a decision on the April 2nd election. Another boycott is unlikelyeven though the TRT would be certain to win another majorityunless doubts arose that Thaksin might go back on his promise not to seek the position of prime minister in the next government. Thaksin's resignation, which he delivered on April 4th, was the main aim of the opposition's boycott of the first general electionand of the mass protests in Bangkok in the weeks preceding the poll. But even if Thaksin stays out of the limelight and a new election is contested successfully, political tension might not be eased completely. More protests cannot be ruled out, especially given the uncertainty over Thaksins future role in politics and who his successor as prime minister will be. Thaksin has stated that he will remain the leader of the TRT and that he will take his seat in the next parliament, thereby raising concerns among his opponents that he will continue to maintain control by proxy. Indeed, there is little likelihood that Thaksin will be content to play a minor political role, particularly if the TRT again wins the backing of more than one-half of the electorate nationwide in another election. Moreover, Thaksin's supporters won more than half the 200 seats in a Senate (upper house) election on April 19th. The Senate, which appoints independent political watchdogs like the EC and the National Counter-Corruption Commission, is meant to be politically neutral, but Thaksin's opponents contend that he has filled it with his sympathisersand therefore that it can no longer act as a credible check to abuses of power by the House of Representatives or executive. Many incoming senators are related by marriage or blood to existing TRT legislators in the lower house. If Thaksin is conspicuous in remaining a leading force within the TRT, this could further antagonise his opponents, and this could mean a return to mass demonstrations in Bangkok. Indeed, the People's Alliance for Democracy, a group that consists mainly of pro-democracy organisations determined to remove Thaksin from power, has decided to continue with a rally planned for May 2nd despite the king's intervention. Thailand's political crisis is far from over yet. |