TMCnet News
Thailand: Chamlong says he will vote on 2 April(Thai Press Reports Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)Section: Government & Poltics - A key leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, General Chamlong, has said he will vote in next Sunday's Parliamentary Election, according to local press. Presumably, he will not be voting for Thaksin? From an equity perspective, we would make the following comments in the run up to the aforementioned election: 1. Despite the presence of a mob on the street, so far, Thai democracy has held up extremely well. Barring an unforeseen event, the April 2nd elections look very likely to take place. Based on today's news, even Chamlong seems resigned to this fact. 2. Rather than the 1992-style violence that some had feared there has been very little violence so far. In fact the demonstration seems to have more in common with a festival than a political street protest, if we compare it to those that occur in the West. This is something that both the government and the opposition should take pride in. 3. On where we go from here, it is important to think of Sunday's vote as a referendum on Thaksin, not an election. Because of the election boycott by the main opposition parties, Thaksin will win most of the seats. However, the key will be the number of votes Thaksin wins. At the past election, Thaksin won approximately 19 mn. In order to claim maximum legitimacy, Thaksin wants to obtain this or more. 4. Whatever the outcome there will be some economic impact from the political tensions so far. However, IF they are resolved in the weeks following this election, our best guess is that overall activity should hold up well. Net-net, optimistic about Thailand and long-term future is remained. This view can be strengthened by a successful election and reduced political tension in the weeks ahead. So far, so good. (Phatra Securities: 28 March 2006) |