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PMI® at 50.2%; September Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®; New Orders, Production, and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slower; Inventories ContractingDO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of September 2015. TEMPE, Ariz., Oct. 1, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the 33rd consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 76th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The September PMI® registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage point from the August reading of 51.1 percent. The New Orders Index registered 50.1 percent, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the reading of 51.7 percent in August. The Production Index registered 51.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points below the August reading of 53.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 50.5 percent, 0.7 percentage point below the August reading of 51.2 percent. Backlog of Orders registered 41.5 percent, a decrease of 5 percentage points from the August reading of 46.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 38 percent, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the August reading of 39 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 11th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 46.5 percent, the same reading as in August. Comments from the panel are mixed with some concern about the global economy and customer confidence." Of the 18 manufacturing industries, seven are reporting growth in September in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The 11 industries reporting contraction in September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries indexes. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Commodities Down in Price Commodities in Short Supply Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. SEPTEMBER 2015 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES PMI® A PMI® in excess of 43.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the September PMI® indicates growth for the 76th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 33rd consecutive month. Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI® for January through September (52.2 percent) corresponds to a 2.9 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis. In addition, if the PMI® for September (50.2 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.2 percent increase in real GDP annually." THE LAST 12 MONTHS
New Orders The seven industries reporting growth in new orders in September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The nine industries reporting a decrease in new orders during September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.
Production The nine industries reporting growth in production during the month of September — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The seven industries reporting a decrease in production during September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Employment Of the 18 manufacturing industries, in September, eight industries reported employment growth in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The nine industries reporting a decrease in employment in September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Chemical Products.
Supplier Deliveries The five industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in September are: Textile Mills; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries during September — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. Seven industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in September compared to August.
Inventories* The six industries reporting higher inventories in September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The nine industries reporting lower inventories in September — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electrical Products; and Chemical Products.
Customers' Inventories* The nine manufacturing industries reporting customers' inventories as being too high during the month of September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; and Transportation Equipment. The two industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during September are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products. Six industries reported no changes in customers' inventories in September compared to August.
Prices* Of the 18 manufacturing industries, no industries are reporting paying increased prices for their raw materials in September. The 14 industries reporting paying lower prices during the month of September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Primary Metals; Plastics & Rubber Products; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.
Backlog of Orders* The only industry reporting an increase in order backlogs in September is Furniture & Related Products. The 16 industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs during September — listed in order — are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
New Export Orders* The five industries reporting growth in new export orders in September are: Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The 11 industries reporting a decrease in new export orders during September — listed in order — are: Wood Products; Petroleum and Coal Products; Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Imports* The six industries reporting growth in imports during the month of September — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting a decrease in imports during September — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Transportation Equipment.
* The Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders and Imports Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments. Buying Policy
About This Report Data and Method of Presentation Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries (seasonally adjusted), and Inventories. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI® in excess of 43.1 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 43.1 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 43.1 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. The Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern. 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Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM ROB Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 2055 East Centennial Circle, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1802, or by emailing [email protected], Subject: Content Request. ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM ROB Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM ROB Content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of the ISM ROB. Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc. 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