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NMI® at 53.5%; January Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 53.9%; New Orders Index at 56.5%; Employment Index at 52.1%DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of January 2016. This report reflects the recently completed annual adjustments to the seasonal adjustment factors used to calculate the indexes. TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 3, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 72nd consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 53.5 percent in January, 2.3 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 55.8 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 53.9 percent, which is 5.6 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 59.5 percent, reflecting growth for the 78th consecutive month at a slower rate. The New Orders Index registered 56.5 percent, 2.4 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted reading of 58.9 percent in December. The Employment Index decreased 4.2 percentage points to 52.1 percent from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56.3 percent and indicates growth for the 23rd consecutive month. The Prices Index decreased 4.6 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted December reading of 51 percent to 46.4 percent, indicating prices decreased in January for the third time in the last five months. According to the NMI®, 10 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in January. The majority of the respondents' comments are positive about business conditions; however, there is a concern that exists relative to global conditions, stock market volatility, and the effect on commercial and consumer confidence." INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE The 10 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in January — listed in order — are: Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Retail Trade; Information; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Public Administration. The eight industries reporting contraction in January — listed in order — are: Mining; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
*Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment Indexes. Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Supplier Deliveries. Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors. COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY Commodities Up in Price Commodities Down in Price Commodities in Short Supply Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item. JANUARY 2016 NON-MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES NMI® An NMI® above 48.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January NMI® indicates growth for the 78th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sector for the 72nd consecutive month. Nieves stated, "The past relationship between the NMI® and the overall economy indicates that the NMI® for January (53.5 percent) corresponds to a 1.8 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis." NMI® HISTORY
Business Activity The nine industries reporting growth of business activity in January — listed in order — are: Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Public Administration; Construction; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The nine industries reporting a decrease in business activity — listed in order — in January are: Mining; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Other Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.
New Orders The nine industries reporting growth of new orders in January — listed in order — are: Finance & Insurance; Utilities; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Construction; Retail Trade; Information; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The seven industries reporting contraction of new orders in January — listed in order — are: Mining; Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Accommodation & Food Services; and Wholesale Trade.
Employment The four industries reporting an increase in employment in January are: Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The eight industries reporting a reduction in employment in January — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Information; Public Administration; and Mining. Six industries listed no change in January compared to December.
Supplier Deliveries The eight industries reporting slower deliveries in January — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Other Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting faster deliveries in January are: Mining; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.
Inventories The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in January — listed in order — are: Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Construction. The five industries reporting decreases in inventories in January are: Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; and Public Administration.
Prices The three non-manufacturing industries reporting an increase in prices paid during the month of January are: Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The 11 industries reporting a decrease in prices paid for the month of January — listed in order — are: Mining; Utilities; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Information; Construction; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report. Backlog of Orders The seven industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in January — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; Information; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in January — listed in order — are: Mining; Utilities; Other Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
New Export Orders The two industries reporting an increase in new export orders in January are: Information; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation. The seven industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in January — listed in order — are: Public Administration; Mining; Other Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries reported no change in new export orders in January compared to December.
Imports No industry reported an increase in imports for the month of January. The six industries reporting a decrease in imports for the month of January — listed in order — are: Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; and Wholesale Trade. Twelve industries listed no change in imports in January compared to December.
Inventory Sentiment The nine industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in January — listed in order — are: Mining; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Retail Trade; Information; Public Administration; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low for the month of January are: Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Health Care & Social Assistance.
About This Report Data and Method of Presentation Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality. The NMI® (Non-Manufacturing Index) is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. An NMI® above 48.9 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 48.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 48.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. The Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® survey is sent out to Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on information for the current month. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses in order to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month. The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease. About Institute for Supply Management® Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) serves supply management professionals in more than 90 countries. Its 48,000 members around the world manage about $1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 as the first supply management institute in the world, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM leads the profession through the ISM Report On Business®, its highly regarded certification programs and the newly launched ISM Mastery Model™. This report has been issued by the association since 1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II. 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Report On Business®, PMI®, and NMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc. The full text version of the Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® is posted on ISM®'s website at www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. (ET). The next Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® featuring the February 2016 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on Thursday, March 3, 2016. *Unless the NYSE is closed.
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