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Moving towards a nuclear showdown(Economist.com Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)The prospect of some form of sanctions against Iran is growing after the Islamic country resumed work at its nuclear plants this week. A crisis meeting between Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the United States has been called in London for next week. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad looks set on a showdown as Iran waits to be referred to the UN Security Council INTERNATIONAL tension continues to rise after Iran's government decided to break the seals at its uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz this week, provoking widespread criticism from friends and opponents alike. The decision is likely to prove momentous. It marks an end to the Islamic republic's two-year, voluntary suspension of nuclear research agreed with European countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog. It also suggests that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is set on a showdownrather than more negotiationwith western countries over his country's nuclear ambitions. The pressing question now is how the rest of the world handles Iran. Several European countries have voiced alarm at Iran's decision to restart nuclear work. France's president, Jacques Chirac, immediately called the decision a serious error. A spokesperson for the European Union expressed extreme concern that Iran is violating an international agreement not to pursue sensitive nuclear activities, notably the enrichment of uranium. Even Russia, which is seen as an ally of Iran and the country most likely to broker a compromise, said it was worried by the move and called on Iran to stick to its international commitments. On Thursday January 12th, the foreign ministers of Britain, Germany and France (the so-called EU3) met in Berlin to consider what steps to take. They and the United States want the matter of Iran's nuclear efforts to be referredperhaps by the board of the IAEAto the Security Council at the United Nations. Germany's foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said talks with Iran have reached a dead end. America's vice-president, Dick Cheney, had earlier told Fox News that the Bush administration wants to see a resolution that could be enforced by sanctions. Britain's Tony Blair told Parliament that no measures would be ruled out in considering how to handle Iran. If the Security Council does consider a resolution against Iran, much will depend on the positions of Russia and China. Some believe Russia now supports limited sanctions, while China might be willing to abstain rather than be isolated after making clear it opposes the spread of nuclear weapons. Presumably to hammer out an agreed response, a crisis meeting has been called for next week in London between the EU3, the United States, Russia and China. Nor are diplomats the only ones concerned: by Thursday crude was fetching more than $64 a barrel, a three-month high; traders said this was largely because of the nuclear impasse with Iran, which is one of the world's biggest oil producers. Few governments in Europe and America doubt that Iran is using its civilian atomic-energy efforts as a cover for a nuclear weapons programme. Western suspicions are based on Iran's record of hiding nuclear work from IAEA inspectors for 18 years until discovered in 2003. Now Tehran has spurned a Russian proposal to enrich uranium on its behalf which would have provided material to be used for civilian, but not military, ends. The evidence is piling up that Mr Ahmadinejad is unwilling to compromise. Last week Ali Larijani, the senior Iranian official in charge of nuclear issues, said his country had a non-negotiable right to resume research. Mr Ahmadinejad added that the Iranian nation and government will defend the right to nuclear research and technology and will go forward prudently. But Iranian delegates then failed to show up to a meeting with the IAEA in Vienna, where they were to explain the purpose of the renewed work. The IAEA's boss, Mohamed ElBaradei, is said to be exasperated by Iran's behaviour and its regrettable decision to restart research. The likelihood of diplomatic confrontation has been growing for months. Iran resumed production of uranium gas in August, to European and American disapproval. Then it announced plans to enrich the gas in centrifuge machines at the plant in Natanz. Efforts by Russian diplomats to broker a compromise have got nowhere. At the same time Mr Ahmadinejad has been taking an ever tougher public stance. He has replaced many moderate diplomats with hardliners. This month he told a gathering of lawmakers that any policy of dtente is not in Iran's best interests. He fulminates against Israel with almost clockwork regularity. Last week he willed an early death for Israel's ill prime minister, Ariel Sharon. Previously he called Israel a tumour and suggested it should be wiped off the map or else reconstituted in Europe. In December he called the Holocaust a myth, stirring up wide international criticism. Israel worries that Iran could have usable weapons within months. Information seems to be accruing that the Islamic country is up to no good. A British newspaper, the Guardian, last week said European intelligence agencies had produced a lengthy report that fingered Iran (and other would-be nuclear powers) for running a network of traders, phoney companies, state institutions and diplomatic missions to procure the means to develop chemical, biological, nuclear and conventional weapons. Iran is said to be especially active in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia as it tries to develop very ambitious missile programmes. The European spies suggested that 16 Russian firms and academic institutes are helpingand profiting fromthe Iranian military effort. Much seems now to depend on the belligerent Mr Ahmadinejad, who feels he has a mission to reject the West's frail civilisation and instead, with Iran's bumper oil revenues, build a model Islamic country. Though he does not enjoy unanimous support at home, he is backed by the hardline Revolutionary Guardthe same institution that America and its allies suspect of using a civilian nuclear programme as cover to build a bomb. The Guard wields much influence on Iran's behalf in next-door Iraq, and could stir up more trouble there for America if the superpower were ever to threaten to clobber Iran's nuclear facilities. |