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Leader: Blocking Iran's nuclear path(The Scotsman Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)WHY worry about Iran's decision this week to abandon its two-year moratorium on enriching uranium? Enriching uranium would eventually give Tehran's clerical regime enough weapon's grade fission material to build a nuclear bomb. Yet both respected independent observers and the CIA believe it will take Iran another decade to produce working atomic warheads. At present, Tehran possesses only a couple of thousand centrifuge machines to enrich uranium, and these are configured for making low-grade material suitable for electricity generation. Iran would need as many as 50,000 centrifuges optimised for high-level enrichment - a tricky technology - in order to garner enough high-grade uranium 235 to build for a bomb. Nevertheless, Iran's decision to defy world public opinion and start down the road to possessing a nuclear arsenal is deeply troublesome. Shia-dominated Iran has never abandoned its pretensions to regional hegemony. It is actively supporting terrorist groups in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq; and its baleful diplomatic influence is felt through Central Asia. If the international community tacitly condones Iran's project to acquire nuclear weapons, it will touch off a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle and Near East, with Turkey and Saudi Arabia forced to follow suit. To have the world's most politically volatile region awash with nuclear weapons is not something we can contemplate with equanimity. Other problems will also surface long before Tehran has an operational bomb. In Iraq, which also has a Shia majority, expect Tehran's influence to grow if it successfully defies the international community. Currently, Iraq's pre- eminent Shia religious leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, rejects Tehran's influence in favour of Iraqi nationalism and traditional Shia doctrines which keep the clergy out of politics. But let Tehran off the diplomatic hook regarding nuclear weapons and all that could change. Then there are Israel and Palestine, where the political future is predicated on the outcome of elections in the two communities. Just when he was needed most, Ariel Sharon is effectively out of politics; indeed, he may be more gravely stricken than his doctors and aides originally implied. That leaves the political future of his new, centrist Kadima Party hanging in the balance. To date, Tehran has been no friend of the peace process in Israel, with Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, calling for the Jewish state to be wiped out and publicly hoping Sharon dies. Such provocative statements might be dismissed as being purely for internal political consumption in Iran, where Ahmadinejad is vying for position against other clerical factions. However, throughout 2005, Tehran stepped up its material support for the various terror groups in Palestine. The Lebanese-based Hizbollah, a Shia group with close links to Tehran, fired more rockets into Israel than for some years. This week, the Lebanese army intercepted a large consignment of Hizbollah arms headed by boat to the Gaza Strip, which Israel vacated in September. A nuclear Tehran will feel even freer to undermine peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine. What can be done to deter Iran from going down the nuclear road? There remain grounds for believing that Iran is susceptible to international diplomatic pressure. After all, Tehran did voluntarily hold off continuing with its enrichment project for two years, while negotiating with Britain, France and Germany. But a carrot-and-stick approach is called for. Despite its oil wealth, the Iranian economy is a disaster. It is dominated by peasant agriculture and vast, inefficient state industries that are the source of corruption and political influence. A third of the population is under 14, and they have little prospect of jobs. While President Ahmadinejad is a religious hard-liner, the basis of his popular support was a promise to attack economic corruption and create jobs. He has failed, which may explain his risky decision to try to maintain popularity by resorting to fanatical demagogy and restarting the nuclear process. Western economic aid could be the carrot that keeps Tehran from pressing the nuclear button. But a stick may also be necessary in the shape of international sanctions. The easiest sanction to impose would be a ban on Iran taking part in sporting events. This sounds innocuous, but sports-mad Iranians would feel that their government was embarrassing the nation, while such a modest step might keep Russia and China on board diplomatically (or at least neutral). THE secret of all good political negotiation is to let the other side know clearly what will happen at each stage of an escalating conflict. Knowing the alternatives focuses even the bitterest antagonist on what is possible. The failure of the EU-Iran negotiations in recent years stemmed from the fact that Tehran was never sure just what it could get away with - hence the temptation to up the ante. So Tehran needs to know that if economic aid and targeted sanctions do not produce a deal (to dismantle Iran's enrichment equipment and allow IAEA inspectors full access) then serious repercussions will follow. First, a referral of Iran to the UN Security Council followed by a ban on petrol imports - Iran lacks sufficient refining capacity and so buys its ordinary petrol from India. Stage three would take us to the threshold of a surgical military strike against Iran's major nuclear facilities. This would be a last resort and also a major gamble. But to ensure a deal, Tehran must be left in no doubt that "all options" are available. The ultimate key to dealing with Tehran is the factious nature of its internal politics. In the short run it would be better to use divide-and-rule tactics to undermine President Ahmadinejad. He has recently begun to associate himself publicly with the return of the Mahdi, Shia Islam's last imam who disappeared a little over a thousand years ago and whose personal return, Shia Muslims believe, will usher in an age of universal justice. Such talk by Ahmadinejad has angered the senior ayatollahs who view it as verging on heresy, while liberal Iranians think he has gone mad. Now is a good time to undermine Ahmadinejad and make him bear the cost of Tehran backing down on the nuclear issue. |