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Contenders vie for support in race to succeed Kofi Annan(The Irish Times Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge)The campaign to select a successor to UN secretary general Kofi Annan is well under way, writes Richard Holbrooke Almost invisible to the general public, a major international election campaign is under way. It is the equivalent of primary time now, and candidates are flying quietly into New York, Washington, Beijing, Paris, Moscow and London, meeting foreign ministers and other officials with little or no fanfare, and slipping out of town again, often denying they are running for anything at all. The winner will instantly become a major world figure. The job they are running for is, of course, secretary general of the United Nations; Kofi Annan's term ends on December 31st. Historically, the job rotates by region, and by tradition it is Asia's turn. But things are never simple at the United Nations, and other regions and nations are disputing Asia's claim to the next "S G". Eastern Europe, in particular, says that it now constitutes a separate regional grouping that emerged after the Cold War, and two people popular in Washington, former Polish president Aleksander Kwasniewski and Latvian president Vaira Vike-Freiberga, have tossed their hats into the ring. But any one of the five permanent members of the Security Council can veto the choice of secretary general, and Russia seems virtually certain to oppose any candidate from what it still regards as its former "space". The US ambassador to the United Nations has said that the world body should not be bound by the rotation system; let the best man or woman be chosen. But I seriously doubt that the Asians, having allowed Africa to hold the position for 15 straight years (Boutros-Ghali and two terms for Kofi Annan), and not having had an Asian secretary general for almost 40 years (since U Thant of Burma in the 1960s), will allow the brass ring to pass them by again. Especially for China, the next S G offers a major opportunity that coincides with their newly assertive diplomacy throughout the world. And remember: no one who is not acceptable to both Beijing and Washington can get this job. Bear in mind also that at the United Nations, Asia may not be what you think. For bureaucratic and historical reasons, the Asian group runs from the shores of the Mediterranean to the far islands of the South Pacific; it includes most of the Arab world and even Turkey, which has, in Kemal Dervis, currently head of the UN Development Programme, an excellent dark-horse candidate. A handful of other names have begun to emerge, but I warn the reader inclined to handicapping: the next S-G may well come from names that have not yet surfaced. The possibilities include: - Surakiart Sathirathai, Thailand's deputy prime minister, has been running openly since last year and has visited dozens of capitals around the world. He has the formal endorsement of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a solid base from which to launch a candidacy. - Ban Ki Moon, South Korea's impressive foreign minister, has excellent relations with both Washington and Beijing. But would China accept a secretary-general from a treaty ally of the United States, and a diplomat who is deeply engaged in sensitive six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programmes? - Jose Ramos-Horta is foreign minister of East Timor and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, but his country is tiny, with only 800,000 people. - Jayantha Dhanapala, a respected Sri Lankan, served as UN undersecretary-general for disarmament and as ambassador to the United States; some question the selection of another UN bureaucrat right after Kofi Annan. The next S-G may not be on this list at all. The former prime minister of Singapore, Goh Chok Tong, and Prince Zeid Raed Hussein, Jordanian ambassador to the UN, may emerge as contenders. My guess is that the final decision will not come until at least the end of September, during the annual convention of foreign leaders at the UN General Assembly. The job matters. The secretary general can play an important role on such issues as the Iranian nuclear programme. It is in the American interest, more often than not, to have a strong secretary general exerting pressure on reluctant or rogue states. The same may not be true of China. The drama coming up, especially between Beijing and Washington, will tell us a lot about the future of the United Nations and the long-term intentions of China. Richard Holbrooke was US ambassador to the United Nations during the Clinton administration. |