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Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast Projects 18-Fold Growth in Global Mobile Internet Data Traffic From 2011 to 2016
SAN JOSE, CA and LONDON, Feb 14, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) --
(NASDAQ: CSCO) - According to the Cisco(R) Visual Networking Index
(VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2011 to 2016, worldwide
mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold over the next five years,
reaching 10.8 exabytes per month -- or an annual run rate of 130
exabytes -- by 2016.
The expected sharp increase in mobile traffic is due, in part, to a
projected surge in the number of mobile Internet-connected devices,
which will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world
population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations). During
2011-2016 Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will
outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times.
The forecast predicts an annual run rate of 130 exabytes of mobile
data traffic, equivalent to:
-- 33 billion DVDs.
-- 4.3 quadrillion MP3 files (music/audio).
-- 813 quadrillion short message service (SMS) text messages.
An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to 1
quintillion bytes.
This mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 78 percent spanning the forecast period. The
incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet
between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately three times the
estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012. The following
trends are driving these significant increases:
1. More Streamed Content: With the consumer expectations increasingly
requiring on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded
content, mobile cloud traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from
2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95 percent.
2. More Mobile Connections: There will be more than 10 billion mobile
Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine
(M2M) modules -- exceeding the world's projected population at that
time of 7.3 billion. (One M2M application is the use of wireless
networks to update digital billboards. This allows advertisers to
display different messages based on time of day or day-of-week and
allows quick global changes for messages, such as pricing changes for
gasoline).
3. Enhanced Computing of Devices: Mobile devices are becoming more
powerful and thus able to consume and generate more data traffic.
Tablets are a prime example of this trend generating traffic levels
that will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016 -- the highest growth rate
of any device category tracked in the forecast. The amount of mobile
data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 (1 exabyte per month) will
be four times the total amount of monthly global mobile data traffic
in 2010 (237 petabytes per month).
4. Faster Mobile Speeds: Mobile network connection speed is a key
enabler for mobile data traffic growth. More speed means more
consumption, and Cisco projects mobile speeds (including 2G, 3G and
4G networks) to increase nine-fold from 2011 to 2016.
5. More Mobile Video: Mobile users want the best experiences they can
have and that generally means mobile video, which will comprise 71
percent of all mobile data traffic by 2016.
The Cisco study also projects that 71 percent of all smartphones and
tablets (1.6 billion) could be capable of connecting to an Internet
Protocol version 6 (IPv6) mobile network by 2016. From a broader
perspective, 39 percent of all global mobile devices (more than 4
billion), could be IPv6-capable by 2016.
Impact of Mobile Devices/Connections
-- The increasing number of wireless devices and nodes accessing mobile
networks worldwide is the primary contributor to traffic growth. By
2016, there will be more than 8 billion handheld or personal
mobile-ready devices and nearly 2 billion machine-to-machine
connections, such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in
shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making
patient records more readily available.
-- Smartphones, laptops and other portable devices will drive about 90
percent of global mobile data traffic by 2016.
-- M2M traffic will represent 5 percent of 2016 global mobile data
traffic while residential broadband mobile gateways will account for
the remaining 5 percent of global mobile data traffic.
Impact of Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
-- To address the rise in demand for the mobile Internet, service
providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed/Wi-Fi
networks.
-- In 2011, 11 percent, or 72 petabytes, per month of total mobile data
traffic was offloaded. By 2016, 22 percent, or 3.1 exabytes, per month
of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
-- Without offloading, the 2011-2016 global mobile data traffic CAGR
would be 84 percent instead of 78 percent.
-- Should all aspects of mobility be taken into consideration, such as
cellular traffic, traffic offloaded from cellular networks and
fixed/Wi-Fi traffic generated from portable devices, the total amount
of mobility traffic would be more than four times the Cisco Mobile VNI
forecast's 2016 cellular traffic level.
-- In 2011, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic;
and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 11.5
exabytes per month:
-- Cellular is 5.2 percent or 597 petabytes per month
-- Cellular Offload is 0.6 percent or 72 petabytes per month
-- Fixed/Wi-Fi is 94.2 percent or 10.9 exabytes per month
-- In 2011, fixed/Wi-Fi traffic was more than 18 times greater than
cellular traffic.
-- In 2015, the sum of cellular traffic; cellular offload traffic;
and fixed/Wi-Fi traffic from portable devices totaled 44.1
exabytes per month:
-- Cellular is 16 percent or 6.9 exabytes per month
-- Cellular offload is four percent or 2.0 exabytes per month
-- Fixed/Wi-Fi is 80 percent or 35.2 exabytes per month
-- In 2015, Fixed/Wi-Fi traffic will be more than five times greater
than cellular traffic.
Key Regional Growth Projections
According to the updated forecast by
Cisco, the following regions are experiencing the greatest growth.
-- Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data
traffic growth rate with a CAGR of 104 percent, or 36-fold growth.
-- Asia-Pacific will have an 84 percent CAGR, or 21-fold growth.
-- Central and Eastern Europe will have an 83 percent CAGR, or 21-fold
growth.
-- Latin America will have a 79 percent CAGR, or 18-fold growth.
-- North America will have a 75 percent CAGR, or 17-fold growth.
-- Western Europe will have a 68 percent CAGR, or 14-fold growth.
Impact of Faster Global Mobile Network Connection Speeds
The average
mobile connection speed doubled last year and is expected to increase
nine-fold by 2016. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in
supporting and accommodating mobile data traffic growth.
(Kbps) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CAGR
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ---------
Average Mobile 56
Connection Speed 315 504 792 1,236 1,908 2,873 percent
Average Smartphone 31
Connection Speed 1,344 1,829 2,425 3,166 4,102 5,244 percent
Source: Results from Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST), part of
the Cisco VNI program, and other independent speed test findings. The
Cisco GIST application has more than 900,000 global users. These
projections include cellular connection speeds only and are based on
extrapolations from historical mobile network connection speed data.
Cisco Mobile VNI Forecast Methodology
The Cisco mobile VNI study
relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data
usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco's own estimates
for mobile application adoption, minutes of use and transmission
speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device
computing power are also factored into Cisco VNI projections and
findings. A detailed methodology description is included in the
complete report (see link below).
The results of the current forecast represent increased amounts of
traffic for the years 2011 to 2015, reflecting faster-than-expected
growth from the previous Cisco VNI mobile forecast released in
February 2011. In last year's study, 2011 mobile Internet traffic was
forecast to grow at 131 percent. This year, actual mobile Internet
growth 2011 was estimated to be 133 percent.
Supporting Quotes
-- Suraj Shetty, vice president of product and solutions marketing,
Cisco
"By 2016, 60 percent of mobile users -- 3 billion people
worldwide -- will belong to the 'Gigabyte Club,' each generating more
than one gigabyte of mobile data traffic per month. By contrast, in
2011, only one-half percent of mobile users qualified. This impressive
growth in mobile traffic will be driven by more powerful devices,
notably smartphones and tablets, using faster networks, such as 4G and
Wi-Fi, to access more applications, particularly data-intensive
video."
-- Ray Mota, managing partner, ACG Research
"The Cisco Visual Networking
Index has become the respected de facto standard in the industry as a
validation for traffic growth. You know there is value in it when you
see most of your competitors using it as part of their presentations.
It is great to see Cisco putting particular focus on the mobile
aspect, since it is such an increasingly important part of network
traffic."
-- Peter Jarich, service director, Current Analysis
"The Cisco VNI
provides great insights and directions about the future of the market.
Beyond the basic idea that IP traffic will be growing, operators are
worried about which types of traffic will be growing. This concern
makes the granularity and segmentation of the Cisco VNI critical. The
Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast is vital because it gives us a more
detailed look at what's happening with mobile traffic, which is
growing so quickly."
-- John Byrne, research director, IDC
"The Cisco Visual Networking Index
provides an invaluable reference source as we model increased network
usage and converts that usage into revenue projections. The ability of
the Cisco VNI to provide growth projections across multiple sources
such as mobile video and online gaming is particularly useful.'
Embedded YouTube Animation
-- A Mobile Love Story in Paris: How Multiple Devices will Drive Data
Traffic in 2016
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0LX1RzhwO8
Supporting Resources
-- Cisco Visual Networking Index home page.
-- Read the complete Cisco Visual Networking Index Mobile Data Traffic
Forecast and Methodology, 2011-2016 white paper.
-- Cisco Visual Networking Index Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016
FAQs.
-- Learn more about free Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST)
application.
-- See latest Cisco GIST test results worldwide.
-- For more information about Cisco's service provider news and
activities visit the SP360 Blog or follow us on Twitter
@CiscoSPMobility or hashtag #VNI or SP360 SlideShare.
-- Join the Cisco VNI Global Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016 TweetChat
on Friday, Feb. 24, 2012 at 9 a.m. (PST) by following #CiscoSPChat to
talk live with the Cisco VNI team about the latest global mobile data
traffic forecast.
-- Join Cisco VNI Global Data Traffic Forecast, 2011-2016 webcast on
Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 10 a.m. (PST) at:
http://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/6165/42163. The Cisco VNI team will
be present for a live Q&A session.
-- Subscribe to Cisco's SP360 feed.
Editor's Note
Cisco welcomes press, analysts, bloggers, service
providers, regulators and other interested parties to use and
reference our research with proper attribution, such as "Source:
Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
Update, 2011-2016."
Tags/Keywords
Cisco, Service Providers, Visual
Networking Index, VNI, Mobile Internet, Mobile Data, Mobile Video,
Mobile VNI, Mobile Traffic, Mobility, Suraj Shetty
RSS Feed for Cisco: http://newsroom.cisco.com/rss-feeds
About Cisco
Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) is the worldwide leader in
networking that transforms how people connect, communicate and
collaborate. Information about Cisco can be found at
http://www.cisco.com. For ongoing news, please go to
http://newsroom.cisco.com.
Cisco and the Cisco logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of
Cisco and/or its affiliates in the U.S. and other countries. A
listing of Cisco's trademarks can be found at
www.cisco.com/go/trademarks. Third-party trademarks mentioned are the
property of their respective owners. The use of the word partner does
not imply a partnership relationship between Cisco and any other
company.
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Press Contact:
Kevin Petschow
(847) 678.5462
kpetscho@cisco.com
Industry Analyst Contact:
Carter Cromwell
(949) 526.6914
ccromwel@cisco.com
Investor Relations Contact:
Matt Hardwick
+65 9787 4607
mahardwi@cisco.com
SOURCE: Cisco
mailto:kpetscho@cisco.com
mailto:ccromwel@cisco.com
mailto:mahardwi@cisco.com
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