[September 08, 2026]

The More Than $1.1 Trillion US Consumer Goods Market Is Splitting in Two, According to NIQ and World Data Lab Analysis

An increasingly important factor for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies in the United States may no longer be inflation, private label, or changing demographics. According to a new analysis from NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ), a global leader in consumer intelligence, and World Data Lab, it's the shrinking space in between.

The new findings from A Tale of Two Consumers: The polarized mindsets reshaping global consumption reveal a US marketplace increasingly defined by two distinct consumer behaviors: shoppers willing to pay more for products they believe are worth it, and shoppers actively seeking lower-cost alternatives. As a result, growth is concentrating at the premium and value ends of the market, creating what NIQ and World Data Lab describe as a "barbell" market as consumers gravitate toward products that deliver exceptional value or justify a higher price point.

The findings build on NIQ's recent global research into consumer polarization, private label adoption, and AI-driven commerce, as well as its multiyear collaboration with World Data Lab to uncover generational spending trends worldwide. In the US in particular, the impact of consumer purchasing polarization is becoming especially visible on store shelves.

Key US findings from A Tale of Two Consumers report include:

• The more than $1.1 trillion FMCG market is increasingly polarizing, with growth concentrated in premium and value tiers while mainstream products lose share.
• Premiumization is strongest in wellness, beauty, and identity-driven categories, where consumers continue to pay more for perceived quality and benefits.
• Younger generations are driving premium growth across categories including Beauty, Soft Drinks, and Salty Snacks, with Gen Z spending power projected to reach $12 trillion globally by 2030.
• Private labels are increasingly competing at both the value and premium ends of the market, putting pressure on traditional brands from both directions.

"The US consumer hasn't stopped spending, but rather, they have become much more intentional about where they spend," said Ramon Melgarejo, President of Consumer Intelligence Initiatives & E-commerce at NIQ. "Consumers are increasingly asking whether a product truly earns a premium or whether a lower-priced alternative will do the job just as well. Products that fall in the middle are finding it harder to answer that question."

The report finds that American shoppers are routinely trading up and trading down within the same basket. A consumer may choose premium skincare products, specialty beverages, or wellness-focused items while simultaneously purchasing value-oriented household staples or private label products elsewhere in the store.

This behavior reflects a broader shift away from traditional demographic assumptions. While income and age continue to influence purchasing decisions, they are becoming less predictive than a consumer's mindset in a particular category or shopping occasion.

The New Pressure on Mainstream Brands

The rise of premiumization in categories tied to self-care, wellness, and personal identity is creating new opportunities for brands that can clearly communicate meaningful benefits. At the same time, stronger private label offerings are giving consumers credible alternatives across a growing number of categories.

For manufacturers and retailers, the implications are significant. Brands that lack adistinct premium proposition or a compelling value advantage increasingly risk being squeezed between premium competitors and rapidly evolving private label offerings.

"Younger consumers are proving especially influential in shaping premium growth," said Liz Buchanan, President of North America, NIQ. "However, the broader story is one of increasingly selective consumer behavior, as shoppers of all ages become more deliberate and more willing to switch when products no longer justify their place in the basket."

As consumer polarization continues to reshape the US FMCG landscape, the report suggests that future growth will depend less on targeting the average shopper and more on understanding when consumers choose to trade up, when they choose to save, and why.

To learn more and view the full report, please visit niq.com/tale-of-two-consumers.

FAQs

What is A Tale of Two Consumers?
A Tale of Two Consumers: The polarized mindsets reshaping global consumption is a global research report from NIQ and World Data Lab that examines how consumer polarization, spending power, and evolving purchasing behaviors are reshaping retail and consumer goods markets worldwide.

What is the main finding of NIQ's Tale of Two Consumers report?
The report finds that consumer behavior is becoming more important than age in explaining purchasing decisions. Consumers across generations are increasingly balancing premium purchases with value-seeking choices based on category, occasion, and perceived need.

What is the "barbell effect" in consumer spending?
The barbell effect refers to growing consumer demand at both the premium and value ends of the market while products positioned in the middle face increasing pressure. Consumers are gravitating toward products that either clearly justify a premium price or provide strong value.

What do these findings mean for brands and retailers?
Brands can no longer rely solely on demographic targeting. Success increasingly depends on understanding when consumers are seeking premium experiences and when they are prioritizing value, regardless of generation.

About NIQ
NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete and trusted understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. By combining an unmatched global data footprint and granular consumer and retail measurement with decades of AI modeling expertise, NIQ builds decision systems that help companies turn complex data into confident action.

With operations in more than 90 countries, NIQ covers approximately 82% of the world's population and more than $7.4 trillion in global consumer spend. Through cloud-based platforms, advanced analytics and AI-driven insights, NIQ delivers The Full View™-helping brands and retailers understand what consumers buy, why they buy it, and what to do next.

For more information, please visit www.niq.com.

About World Data Lab
World Data Lab is a data science company delivering projections of where global spending power and consumer demand are heading. By combining authoritative demographic and economic data with a proprietary, peer-reviewed forecasting methodology, World Data Lab converts long-term population and spending shifts into a single, forward-looking view of the future consumer, helping organizations identify where growth will emerge before it does.

Modeling consumer trends and demographic change through 2050, World Data Lab covers 99.5% of the world's population across 190+ countries, 9,000+ cities, and 200+ spending categories. Its core methodology, named by Nature among the 50 most influential papers of the decade, underpins both its enterprise platform, World Data Intelligence, and a suite of public tools including the World Poverty Clock.

For more information, visit worlddatalab.com.

Forward-Looking Statement
This press release may contain forward-looking statements regarding anticipated timelines, benefits, features, and outcomes related to A Tale of Two Consumers: The polarized mindsets reshaping global consumption, developed in collaboration with World Data Lab. These statements reflect current expectations and projections based on available data, forecasting models, historical patterns and various assumptions. Words such as "may," "could," "will," "expects," "projects," "forecasts," "indicates," "suggests," "continues" and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future outcomes and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, including changes in consumer preferences, economic conditions, inflation, demographic trends, currency exchange rates, technological developments, regulatory conditions and competitive dynamics. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date made, and NIQ undertakes no obligation to update them except as required by applicable law.

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