[February 12, 2010] County attorney: Bernal leads Caballero in new El Paso Times poll results Tweet EL PASO, Feb 12, 2010 (El Paso Times - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- The race for county attorney appears to be leaning heavily toward Jo Anne Bernal, according to an El Paso Times poll released Thursday. Bernal attracted 49.7 percent of likely voters in the poll while her rival, Theresa Caballero, pulled in 35.3 percent in the poll conducted by The Reuel Group. Pollster Russell Autry said it would take a big effort on Caballero's part to pull out a win in the Democratic primary on March 2. "At this point, Jo Anne Bernal should be able to pull it out," Autry said. "Even if she (Caballero) splits the undecided vote evenly with Bernal, that puts her at about 42 or 43 percent -- obviously not enough." Undecided voters came in at 15 percent. "I'm pleased with the number, but it won't change my strategy," Bernal said. "My strategy all along has been to get the message out that the county attorney's office makes a positive difference in people's lives every single day." Caballero immediately questioned the poll's veracity, claiming that The Reuel Group conducted a poll for Bernal a few weeks ago and pointed to an expenditure on the incumbent's campaign finance report for a total of $1,500 for a voter data list. "The Reuel Group is working for her," Caballero said. Bernal said her campaign did purchase a poll and said it was for $1,500 and it would show up on the next campaign finance statement. She said the poll was conducted Jan. 22-23. Caballero said The Reuel Group "is notoriously wrong and, if they're off as much as the last time I ran, then I've won." However, in 2008, The Reuel Group was commissioned by the El Paso Times to conduct a poll in her race against District Attorney Jamie Esparza. The poll accurately predicted her defeat. In it, the poll showed her losing to Esparza 54.9 percent to 19.4 percent, with 25.7 percent undecided. According to official results provided by the County Elections Department, Esparza beat Caballero in that primary 58 percent to 41 percent. Caballero also charged that Bernal's campaign poll was a push poll -- a type of poll that defames opposing candidates by presenting false or misleading information to poll participants. But Autry said that his El Paso-based firm is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and that one key requirement for membership is that the firms are not allowed to participate in push polls. That requirement is listed on the organization's Web site. He said the consequences of participating in one would be disastrous for the firm because the firm is nonpartisan and does polling data for a wide range of clients. "I suspect we would get kicked out of the association," Autry said. "It would mean a lack of credibility for us." He also said there is no crossover in conducting polls for different clients. "The samplings we prepare for every poll are prepared separately by our data manager, and she would not know who the client is we're doing the poll for," he said. Bernal said her campaign and The Reuel Group developed the questions for her poll, conducted Jan. 22-23. Reuel's poll for the El Paso Times targeted 578 likely Democratic voters on Feb. 8-9 and had a margin of error of 4.4 percent. David Montero may be reached at [email protected]; 546-6249. To see more of the El Paso Times, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.elpasotimes.com. Copyright (c) 2010, El Paso Times, Texas Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email [email protected], call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA. [ Back To TMCnet.com's Homepage ]