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inCode Releases Top 10 Telecom Predictions for 2010Nov 16, 2009 (Close-Up Media via COMTEX) -- inCode Telecom, a strategy advisor to telecommunications companies, enterprises, and private equity companies in North America, announced its seventh annual Top 10 Telecom Predictions. According to inCode, the 2010 predictions identify business, network, device, and application trends likely to affect consumers and businesses. Highlights of the 2010 predictions include: 1. Wireless Operators Push Netbooks, But They Prove a Mixed Bag Netbooks continue to gain momentum in helping wireless operators sell incremental data-centric plans, even to existing customers. Consumers in developed markets are more likely to use netbooks in addition to, rather than as replacements for, cell phones and laptops, so operators can boost penetration with multiple connections per customer. However, heavy data usage by netbook users could place more strain on already-loaded data networks. Operators view netbooks purely as another type of connectivity, like a data card. However, consumers see operator-provided netbooks as full computing devices requiring laptop-type support. 2. The FCC: Stuck in Neutral with the Net The significant debate on net neutrality rules continues, and FCC efforts to reach a compromise bog down for many months. The potential imposition of net neutrality in wireless already has had a chilling effect on spectrum auctions and rural broadband stimulus participation. Ultimately, the FCC will reach a compromise between network reliability and creativity that is satisfying to no one. Operators will need to find ways to gain traction in an environment encouraging more over-the-top services. 3. Wireless Operators Play "Whack-a-Mole" with Data Issues Verizon has begun its deployment of LTE, and AT&T is continuing with HSPA. Other operators are following suit, finally giving wireless users the promise of wireline-type throughput. However, as the RF bottleneck is removed, other equally challenging issues move to the forefront. Operators focus on new backhaul solutions that can cost-effectively handle increased traffic. Much time, effort, and capital spending will be directed to finding solutions for these capacity issues. 4. When All Devices are Smart, What Becomes Genius? Broad adoption of these models has increased volume shipments. In addition, airtime pricing has become more competitive. These factors are turning smartphone features into table stakes for mid-tier devices. Mobile phones above entry level pricing tiers morph into computing platforms so smartphones as a distinction between tiers ceases to exist by the end of 2010. Today's smartphone-a device with an open OS, a big display, and full Internet browser-won't be a standout because all devices are smart. 5. Wireless Data Pricing Looks More Like the Airlines' Having provided customers with unlimited usage plans, operators find it very difficult to increase pricing or start usage-based charging. Much like airlines that couldn't increase basic rates, wireless operators increasingly turn to charging for incremental features and capabilities beyond basic transport. This is most evident in wireless data services and leads to quality of service pricing. Total cost of service for customers increases, but in many cases not from basic transport fee hikes. 6. M2M Leads Operators into New Acquisition Area The machine-to-machine (M2M) application space has generated significant interest in 2009. AT&T and Jasper forged a strategic partnership, and Verizon and Qualcomm formed a joint venture called nPhase. Operators previously reticent to dive into M2M now recognize the profit-boosting characteristics of this business: low churn, low cost per gross add, and an increase in non-peak traffic. However, many operators possess limited competencies in the support and management requirements associated with M2M enterprise solutions. 7. A Look at Clouds from Both Sides Now Operators embrace cloud computing for applications delivery because it places more value on the core network and increases customer "stickiness." Operators should be on the lookout for gray skies, however. Challenges of response time and coverage can affect utility of usage. Plus, network security and vulnerability issues make customers hesitate. Other players won't sit still and watch operators occupy this space. 8. A Device OS Bites the Dust A recession is still on, and there isn't enough device revenue to support seven different operating systems: BlackBerry, OS X, Windows Mobile, Web OS, Android, Symbian, and Linux Mobile. While the "Open" oasis attracts much support for Google and Android, expect that one OS drops in the desert. Application storefronts and developer ecosystem traction are critical to device OS adoption by OEMs. Bigger device share attracts additional developers, resulting in more uptake by OEMs. 9. MVNOs Get New Lease on Life in a Very Different Form The resurgence of MVNOs is based on a new business model emphasizing delivery of total solutions with wireless as part of the package. An example is the free Amazon Whispernet content service accessed with a Kindle reading device. The risks are lower for Mobile Network Operators (MNOs), since they are not enhancing a competitive brand. 10. Game Console Video Kills the PC Star, at Least for Internet Video Internet video primarily has been consumed directly on the PC as streaming bite-sized clips. Only early adopters viewed streamed or stored Internet video on their TV. The amount of Internet video viewed on TV doubles in 2010, and the gaming console serves as the primary gateway, accounting for almost half of usage. Developments supporting the console device, such as content availability, existing revenue model, and higher definition programming, are the enablers. Report Information: http://www.incodetel.com ((Comments on this story may be sent to [email protected])) |